Little change to 90L; new African tropical wave is worth watching
Invest 90L is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 33W with a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity but a decent amount of spin. It does not have a well-defined surface circulation, and has shown little change in organization today. CIMMS wind-shear analyses show a low amount of wind shear (5 - 10 knots) over 90L, and sea surface temperatures are a record warm 29°C. The wave currently is in a moist environment and is not being affected by the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The disturbance has moved far enough away from the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to help it develop. The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.
Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image from 2pm EDT 7/30/10 of the relatively tiny 90L, and the large new tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday.
Forecast for 90L
One factor inhibiting development of 90L this week will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) The MJO currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased.
Perhaps the main factor interfering with 90L's development will be the presence of the large tropical wave to the east of 90L that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday. This new wave is large enough and close enough to 90L that it will probably begin to dominate regional weather patterns this weekend, stealing away 90L's inflow of low-level moist air. The new wave may also act to bring sinking air over 90L that will tend to suppress 90L's thunderstorm activity. It may turn out that the new wave will also steal some of 90L's spin, and end up being a threat to develop itself later on this weekend.
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) model runs for 90L show very little in the way of development of the storm. The predominant track forecast takes 90L into or just north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands about 6 - 8 days from now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 19% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Sunday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones that develop at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, and I think that the large tropical wave off the coast of Africa will kill 90L this weekend.
Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, south of the Dominican Republic, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph with no signs of development. The wave is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper level low centered north of Puerto Rico. This shear is expected to remain remain high through Saturday. By Sunday, when the wave will be approaching Nicaragua, the wave will be far enough away from the upper level low that shear should fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Some development is possible on Sunday, but the wave will have only about a 1-day window to develop before its westerly motion brings it inland over Nicaragua on Monday. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 2pm Sunday.
Extreme cold records for 2010
In my post yesterday, I reported that fourteen countries had set their all-time hottest temperature record this year. I neglected to mention that one country has also set its coldest temperature in recorded history mark in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in its history on January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 14 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.) My source for extreme weather records is Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather.
New study finds huge drop in the plants that form the base of the oceanic food chain
A study published this week in the journal Nature documents that microscopic marine phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food chain, have declined by 40% globally since 1950. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org discusses the implications, using this headline:
Scientists may have found the most devastating impact yet of human-caused global warming — a 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures. If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year in climate science.
I plan to discuss this paper next week.
Next update
I'll have an update this weekend, probably by 8pm EDT Saturday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Exactly. I don't understand the thinking behind people who believe otherwise.
I agree completely it only takes a few days to get going not months or weeks last August there was 4 named storms in two weeks at the end of August.
Oh I will stick around, but not sure what I will learn from predictions like that! LOL!
Yes, Florence in 2006.
Exactly. Things can get active very quickly, and once they do, I doubt we'll have much of a break.
Huge Hurricane Study Gears Up
Jul 30, 2010 10:26 AM ET
"A massive research project this summer may help reveal some of the storms' best-kept secrets. Researchers sponsored by three government agencies — NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), will swarm the skies of the tropical Atlantic Ocean with specially outfitted planes in an effort to better understand how — and why — tropical cyclones form in the first place."
Can you tell me why you think the season will continue to be inactive?
At the moment, we're being affected by the SAL layer, too many TUTT Lows in the wrong places, not necessarily high wind shear, just the typical June & July inhibiting factors for development we see almost every ATL Hurricane Season.
Then the typical Aug/Sept pattern develops, I pray and hope things do NOT got insane, however, most likely, they will!!
Or "Aerosoles choke Atlantic"
I want them 2 get active. This is boring. The "August/September pattern" that you mentioned, may last into October!
Incorrect. SAL's not bad, and TUTT has pretty much lifted off the N and died off.
So you are allowed to over hype a season but I cant have my opionon? LOL
Speaking of GW....my hometown....accurate PWS....from what I know of it....
WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
99.0 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 1.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 4900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
GFS shows a tropical low/storm in the gulf of mexico Hurricane going up the east coast a hurricane in the Atlantic a strong tropical wave emerging off of africa.:O.
pretty scary stuff - this is 12th August.
Thanks, I am almost 29 and all I was doing was answering a question... geez some people are so uptight in this blog!
Because they can't, and when they know all the evidence has contradicted there so called evidence they resort to name calling. There is no reason we shouldn't see at least 2007 style activity.
sounds reasonable. i averaged the totals of all the forecasts that dr. m posted about a month ago and it came out to 17, so i'm going with 17. that's my simple analysis - the average ;)
Its JFV paranoia. I think your who you say you are and I have no reason to contradict that fact.
Stay inside no time to mow the lawn today in Defuniak.
Correct, however the current downward MJO is keeping TC development at bay, for the moment.
How long will this last?? O I am afraid that the "TC development is fixing to start hitting the fan"!!
Parade of storms.
Blog update.
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video
Well boy, here's the deal, dudes have made fake profiles as girls on here before, so I was just calling out the possibility! lol
sheesh, get off my back a little lol.
I also just think its funny that guys on a weather blog flirt with girls they will never meet! It is quite the crackup you gotta admit!
lol nothing better to do I guess.... did you read the post about where I caught the red?
Well obviously you're inserting your opinion by saying I am overhyping the season. You can have your opinion but please tell me why I am overhyping the season. Some evidence would be great.
Downward MJO's going away, the MDR is 2-4 mb below average for this time of year, plus with very high SST's the basin looks unaffected by downward MJO.
MJO so far has been following the UKMET's MJO prediction and takes it right back to octant 1 and 2 where the heat is favored.
I always do it early...7:30-8am. This is just brutal.
Marianna...which is 50 miles east of me...already at 100 at the airport....all-time record highs may be achieved today...
Marianna, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 27 min 15 sec ago
Clear
100 °F
Clear
Humidity: 39%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 6 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 109 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 3.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 108 ft
to be honest 03 i had high expectations for this season
along with a lot of others
but something is not right
can not put my finger on it
but something is just not allowing systems to organize normally
every system struggle so far
except alex when making landfall
i am waitin to see if a more normal pattern
sets up for august
to confirm if season is to be
what has been expected
iam focusing on
the 15th to 20th
time frame in august
to see if i can see
what iam looking for
Link
Just as long as you don't get pissy and defensive every time someone questions you, I'm fine with it.
It's almost always been that way on here. I've seen a couple report someone for downplaying the season.
Hello :)
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