Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow
Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.
Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.
93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Or could just be a disturbance as the NHC puts it. We'll see what happens, looking at the last few frames, it's *trying* to get organized, the bands to the southeast, convection turning more towards the COC on the Gulf Coast.. From what I can see that is.
yeah, from the NHC, such downcasters...
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
agreed.. i'm watching this very closely and keeping up with all the input, since my expecting wife is in Lafayette for a conference. she experienced an earthquake in Ottawa on her last trip, and i don't want her to go through a tropical cyclone on this one!! we're minnesotan and typically experience neither. i also agree with the Fujiwara effect statement some posts back Levi. i'm seeing less chance for a relocating center vs. just winding up on itself slowly.
so thanks for everyone's posting on this, and i hope to continue to report good news to her.
Thanks :)
lol
Just dont send this info to WikiLeaks...
You Cool with me Bro........I actually have considered the past several weeks pretty active (including one hurricane) in spite of a few false starts most recently....I am NOT looking forward to when Mother Nature "throws the switch" in the Central Atlantic whether that be in a few weeks or in earnest in September.
The fact that he posts there can't mean Watts' site is as bad as you claim lol.
We might have something to watch next days as the gfs is showing this guy off Africa but take with a grain of salt until we get higher model support and consistency.
To play devil's advocate, are there any conditions in place that could hinder tropical development this season? I see a lot of "groupthink" and there must be data supporting a somewhat quiet, or even "average", season.
Last Loop Looks like it is trying to form a center.
what?! the nhc is saying itll die!
It will not be the year of the TUTT/ULLs for much longer:
Landsea 2005:
In the North Atlantic, the TUTT first develops in June, strengthens in July and August, and dissipates in September and October. In its climatological position, the trough axis tilts from the central North Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico as shown for mean August conditions in Fig. 2. Smaller scale (few hundred kilometers) closed circulations - cold lows or TUTT cells - form within the TUTT and move to the south and west along the TUTT axis throughout the summer.
i still maintain with all the experts calling for a busy season, then if its NOT, then something is wrong.
How was that Poboy?
It went down fine.,thanx.
Hopefully Friday the bad stuff if any will be a scooting out.
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