Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
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Actually, GFS takes the next wave and pulls it quickly north and well east of Danielle. Too soon to determine its track, but early guidance keeps it well into the eastern Atlantic and barely gets past 40 W before weakening.
Link
Danielle is looking much healthier...let's see if she can crank it up a notch today!
Sure.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
In the last few visible frames you can see it changing from maybe 290-295 to a more westward track. May just be a wobble but if you activate Forecast Points it's definitely south of them.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Water vapor shows this movement better. SLIGHT EDIT: Maybe 285 movement is more accurate.
Storm, a season or two ago, it seemed when a storm recurved in the Atlantic, regardless where, if another storm formed shortly after, it seemed to follow in the "wake" of the previous storm. Is this normally the case, or is each storm independent of the prior, at least in track. When you get a chance, maybe you can respond. Thanks
Surf line is a great surfers website i use it also to follow storms and waves and coldfronts besides this blog and no i dont live on the paradise side of PR i live in the San Juan metroplex and my surf spots have changed since i graduated from univeristy (less time) and also i am a bodyboarder so my choices are mostly beach breaks just because there are less boarders i do enjoy the southern side at this time of year with the tropical waves coming up rincon is better during the winter months but i dont get out there at all.
Not only that but how quickly overnight it developed a nearly full eyewall and now the eye is popping out. (post 3205)
Some of the difference is likely due to the NHC showing a smooth curve to the cone, as opposed to the more abrupt turn which is more likely.
She's moving faster than they forecasted too, though they'll change that at 11AM
I think that some of this clearing that we're seeing is a dry slot that wrapped in the from west.
RGB Loop
Yep. That's the one I was thinking about. :)
Why do you hate fish so much? ;-)
Quick question for you. What is your outlook for September? do you see the pattern of troughs continuing to re curve storms out to sea or a building high pressure system posing more landfall threats?
Also, what is your take on potential TS Earl and it's track? Thanks
"I hate being right all the time.." Jeff Goldbloom. Can you feel it?
Easier to spot, too - all 6 names he's used so far are variations of a theme.
And, remember - his change of names were not results of a ban, they're results of the use of ignore.
I'm missing an adjustable wrench and basic met science skills, but other than that...
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