Danielle a Cat 4; Earl more organized; Northwest Passage opens for 4th year in a row
The Atlantic's first major hurricane of 2010, Hurricane Danielle, has arrived. Danielle finished a steady round of intensification early this morning, peaking as a low-end Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Infrared satellite loops show little change in Danielle's intensity over the past 12 hours, and the hurricane may be at its peak intensity. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures of 29°C are still warm enough to support some modest additional intensification, though. The first Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate Danielle this afternoon, and we'll get a better idea of Danielle's strength then.
Figure 1. True color image of Danielle taken at 12:55pm EDT Thursday, August 26, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.
Intensity forecast for Danielle
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through Saturday night, but then rapidly rise to a high 25 - 50 knots Sunday through Tuesday when Danielle encounters strong upper-level winds from a trough of low pressure. Danielle may go through an eyewall replacement cycle today or Saturday, which could weaken the storm to Category 2 strength. More substantial weakening will occur on Sunday, when Danielle encounters the high shear.
Track forecast for Danielle
Danielle wandered off of its northwesterly path over the past few hours and has headed almost due west, but the hurricane should resume a more northwesterly path shortly. A trough of low pressure that is currently moving off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north Saturday, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda just a 12% chance of getting tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and no chance of getting winds 58 mph or greater. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 10 - 18 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. All of the computer models agree on recurvature of Danielle out to sea on Sunday, with the storm missing both Bermuda and Canada. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 6 - 9 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 6 - 9 feet on Sunday.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Earl.
Tropical Storm Earl
Tropical Storm Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielles across the mid-Atlantic. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows low shear of 5 - 10 knots over Earl, and recent satellite imagery shows the storm is slowly growing more organized. More low-level spiral bands have developed this morning, and the storm has assumed a more circular shape. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the west of Earl, and this dry air will likely be the primary inhibiting factor for development over the next few days. Sea surface temperatures are warm, around 28°C. Earl is too far from land for the Hurricane Hunters to reach, and the first flight into the storm is scheduled for Saturday evening.
Forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. There is a possibility, though, that Earl may see higher shear Saturday night through Sunday, due to strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Hurricane Danielle. SSTs will steadily warm from 28°C on Friday to almost 30°C by Sunday beneath Earl. The storm may cross Danielle's cold water wake at some point, which could interrupt development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for Earl over the next three days, though. In combination, these factors should allow for intensification of Earl into a hurricane 3 - 4 days from now. An unknown wild card in this may be the possible interaction with 97L. Several models predict 97L will grow to hurricane strength and move faster than Earl. It is possible the storms could interfere with each other, or have some counterclockwise rotation around a common center, 4 - 6 days from now.
History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, but the long term fate of Earl remains unclear. The storm is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and Earl will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. As Earl approaches the central Atlantic 3 - 4 days from now, the storm will encounter a break in the region of high pressure steering it, courtesy of Danielle. This should give enough of a northwestward motion to the storm so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. Earl would then likely continue northwest towards Bermuda. However, if Danielle recurves out to sea faster than expected, this ridge may have time to build back enough to steer Earl over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 35% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and a 8% chance of getting hurricane force winds.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 97L.
97L
It's deja-vu all over again, as a new tropical wave (Invest 97L) off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands, appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. 97L already has a broad, elongated surface circulation, as seen on satellite loops, but only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is experiencing a moderate 10 - 20 knots of winds shear, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Sunday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles 5 - 6 days from now. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at least a close brush with 97L, though. Most of the computer models develop 97L into a hurricane five days from now. However, the storm will have to contend with the cold water wakes left behind by both Danielle and Earl. Furthermore, the GFS model is indicating that 4 - 5 days from now, Earl will be a strong hurricane whose upper-level outflow will create high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over 97L, weakening it. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 15 - 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.
Elsewhere in the Tropics
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Frank is headed towards Baja California in Mexico, but is expected to dissipate before getting there.
There are more tropical waves over Africa that will be candidates to develop next week once they emerge over the Atlantic. In particular, a wave near 10N 20E has an impressive circulation.
The Northwest and Northeast Passages are open
The Northwest Passage--the legendary shipping route through ice-choked Canadian waters at the top of the world--melted free of ice last week, and is now open for navigation, according to satellite mosaics available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and The University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. This summer marks the fourth consecutive year--and fourth time in recorded history--that the fabled passage has opened for navigation. Over the past four days, warm temperatures and southerly winds over Siberia have also led to intermittent opening of the Northeast Passage, the shipping route along the north coast of Russia through the Arctic Ocean. It is now possible to completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters, and this will probably be the case for at least a month. This year marks the third consecutive year--and the third time in recorded history--that both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage have melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The Northeast Passage opened for the first time in recorded history in 2005, and the Northwest Passage in 2007. It now appears that the opening of one or both of these northern passages is the new norm, and business interests are taking note--commercial shipping in the Arctic is on the increase, and there is increasing interest in oil drilling. The great polar explorers of past centuries would be astounded at how the Arctic has changed in the 21st century.
Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent image for August 24, 2010, as compiled by The University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. The northern route (Western Parry Channel) through the Northwest Passage was completely clear of ice, as was the Northeast Passage. The southern route through the Northwest Passage was still partially blocked.
What caused the opening of the Northwest and Northeast Passages?
The remarkable thinning of Arctic sea ice in recent years has left behind a very thin layer of mostly 1-year old ice in the Arctic, highly vulnerable to rapid melting. As I describe in detail in wunderground's sea ice page, this thinning was mostly due to natural wind pattern in the 1990s, much warmer than average ocean waters invading the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, very warm air temperatures, and deposition of black soot from fires used to clear agricultural land in Europe and air pollution originating in industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This year, Canada experienced its warmest winter in history, and record warm temperatures were observed during spring over the Western Canadian Arctic. Spring 2010 was the warmest in the region since 1948; some regions of the Western Canadian Arctic were more than 6°C (11°F) above average. These warm conditions helped break the ice up early in the Northwest Passage. Warm conditions continued this summer over both the Northwest and Northeast Passages, with temperatures averaging 1 - 2°C above average over the majority of the region. As observed in previous years, contributing to this year's melt was the presence of much warmer than average ocean waters invading the Arctic from both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the deposition of black soot on the ice, which absorbs sunlight and heats up the ice. Lack of sunshine and natural wind patterns this summer helped counteract the melting, though, compared to the record melt year of 2007. Still, 2010 is on track come in 2nd or 3rd place for the lowest summertime Arctic sea ice extent on record. The past six years have had the six lowest Arctic ice extents on record, and this summer's melting season took a huge toll on the amount of thick, multi-year old ice, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Modeling results from the University of Washington Polar Science Center (Figure 5) suggest that the volume of Arctic sea ice is at a record low for this time of year. The loss of so much old, thick ice this year makes it increasing likely that Arctic sea ice will suffer a record retreat that surpasses 2007's, sometime in the next ten years. We are still on track to see the Arctic sea ice completely disappear in summer by 2030, as predicted by a number of Arctic sea ice experts.
Figure 5. Arctic sea ice volume as computed by the PIOMAS model of the University of Washington Polar Science Center.
When was the last time the Northwest and Northeast Passages melted free 3 consecutive years?
The first recorded attempt to find and sail the Northwest Passage occurred in 1497, and ended in failure. The thick ice choking the waterways thwarted all attempts at passage for the next four centuries. While we cannot say for certain the Northwest Passage did not open between 1497 and 1900, it is highly unlikely that a string of three consecutive summers where both the Northwest and Northeast Passage opened would have escaped the notice of early mariners and whalers, who were very active in northern waters. We can be sure the Northern Passages were never open between 1900 - 2005, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). A very cold period dominated northern latitudes during the 1600s, 1700s, and 1800s, known as "The Little Ice Age", further arguing against an opening of the Northern Passages during those centuries. The Northern Passages may have been open at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 900 and 1300 AD. Temperatures in Europe were similar, though probably a little cooler, than present-day temperatures. However, the Medieval Warm Period warmth was not global, and it is questionable whether or not sections of the Northern Passages along the Alaskan, Canadian, and Russian shores shared in the warmth of the Medieval Warm Period. So, a better candidate for the last previous multi-year opening of the Northern Passages was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time the Northern Passages were open was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3 degrees Centigrade higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher. It is possible we'll know better soon. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was last open.
But Antarctic sea ice is at a record high!
Climate change contrarians like to diminish the importance of Arctic sea ice loss by pointing out that in recent years, Antarctic sea ice extent has hit several record highs, including in July of 2010. They fail to mention, though, the fact that ocean temperatures in the Antarctic sea ice region have warmed significantly in recent decades--and faster than the global average temperature rise! So how can sea ice increase when ocean temperatures are warming so dramatically? This topic is discussed in detail by one of my favorite bloggers, physicist John Cook over at skepticalscience.com. In his words:
"There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). A side-effect is a strengthening of the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas leads to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).
Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). "
This counter-intuitive result shows how complicated our climate system is. Climate change contrarians are masters at obscuring the truth by taking counter-intuitive climate events like this out of context, and twisting them into a warped but believable non-scientific narrative. Lawmakers tend to hear a lot of these narratives, since the lobbying wings of the oil and gas industry spent $175 million last year to help convince Congress not to regulate their industry. This number does not include the tens of millions more spent by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, coal industry, and other business interests intent upon stymying legislation that might cut into profits of the oil, coal, and gas industry. For comparison, the lobbying money spent by environmental groups in 2009 was approximately $22.5 million. Spending for PR efforts aimed at influencing opinion on climate change issues probably has a similar disparity. This is a major reason why you may have heard, "Hey, Antarctic sea ice is increasing, so why worry about Arctic sea ice loss?"
Commentary
Diminishing the importance of Arctic sea ice loss by calling attention to Antarctic sea ice gain is like telling someone to ignore the fire smoldering in their attic, and instead go appreciate the coolness of the basement, because there is no fire there. Planet Earth's attic is on fire. This fire is almost certain to grow much worse. When the summertime Arctic sea ice starts melting completely a few years or decades hence, the Arctic will warm rapidly, potentially leading to large releases of methane gas stored in permafrost and in undersea "methane ice" deposits. Methane is 20 - 25 times more potent than CO2 at warming the climate, meaning that the fire in Earth's attic will inexorably spread to the rest of the globe. To deny that the fire exists, or that the fire is natural, or that the fire is too expensive to fight are all falsehoods. This fire requires our immediate and urgent attention. Volunteer efforts to fight the fire by burning less coal, oil, and gas are laudable, but insufficient. It's like trying to fight a 3-alarm blaze with a garden hose. Every time you reduce your use of oil, gas, or coal, you make the price of those fuels cheaper, encouraging someone else to burn them. Global warming will not slow down until Big Government puts a price on oil, coal and gas--a price that starts out low but increases every year. This can be done via emissions trading, a "fee and dividend" approach, or other means. People are rightfully mistrustful of the ability of Big Government to solve problems, but we don't have a choice. The alternative is to geoengineer our climate--an extremely risky solution. It is time to pay the big bucks and send out the fire engines, before the conflagration gets totally out of control. Consider the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 and the Pakistani floods of 2010 a warning. These sorts of extreme events will grow far more common in the decades to come, because of human-caused climate change.
References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.
Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.
Zhang, J.L., 2006, "Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice under Warming Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions", Journal of Climate 20, Number 11, pp 2515-2529.
The Manufactured Doubt Industry and the hacked email controversy, a blog post I did in November 2009.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Everyone here is.
Hopefully everyone out there will find out soon enough.
The NHC is doing a really good job with development and track. No surprises so far.
Snow, you did not get anything from Gloria in 1985 or Bob in 1991?
Right now, I am sitting at 70west. Earl is suppose to curve out to sea which I hope he does before getting to far north.
I also went thru 2004 in Florida and it wasn't fun. Very stressful.
Showed that a few days ago behind Danielle.
We'll probably get a continuous line of storms off Africa the next few weeks.
Right now full attention switches to Earl.
stop blogging with your mouth full. lol
Click for larger image:
To the east, we should see a 97L to TD8 transition today, as the pressure dropped another tick (down to 1008), and the environment is slowly becoming more favorable for development.
2010082800
12.3 334.5
13.0 328.3
100
12.3 334.6
280700
1008280700
1
WTNT21 KNGU 280700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 25.5W TO 13.0N 31.7W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN ASCAT PASS AT 2238 ZULU SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM AS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 290700Z.//
Link
I can tell, blog is eating other people's posts, too.
Well, PR pals, today is the day of truth =P. If we want to avoid a direct impact it needs to start climbing ASAP. Every hour that passes without a 280/285 heading is worse for us as it will bring it closer. I honestly don't know why we don't have a tropical storm watch but oh well.
Good morning everyone!
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR
29.1N 60.9W...OR ABOUT 320 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE
LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.8N 51.2W...OR ABOUT 800 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N25W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N27W...BEYOND 6N27W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE 28/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP.
That NW turn is too sharp. StormW, Levi.... someone give me thoughts please!
000
WTNT32 KNHC 281140
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE SPANS THE AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER AND A TROUGH IS ON TOP OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO AN
18N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THIS AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 71W AND 73W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BEING PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW THAT IS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE COVERING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA SIX HOURS NOW ARE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
HURRICANE DANIELLE...SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. PART
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 25N69W CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN HURRICANE DANIELLE AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 66W. THIS
AREA INCLUDES PART OF SOUTH AMERICA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N31W TO 26N40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N29W TO
25N37W. NO READILY DISCERNIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH/FRONT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
MT
My question exactly. Remember people here like to wait until the last minute for everything.
Oh, I REALLY like this idea!!!^^^^^
humm - so it's Earl that needs watching I gather.?..
I know that. Its been the forecast event for a week now =P. But the weakness is closing behind Danielle and that timing is crucial for when it happens. The ridge was pushed quite fair bit to the point the escape route is around 61-62W, It's the waiting game.
Link
07L/TS/E/CX MARK 15.50N/49.90W
XX/XX/97L T.C.F.A. NEAR 13N/27W
Morning Gwadaman and Wunderground. Earl looks interesting for the islands today, we might even get a little weather from him here in Barbados depending on the cloud pattern over the next few days.
Hoping the high holds at my end - first full week of sun in a while.
Danielle is moving at 9MPH, and the longer Danielle stays there the bigger the weakness gets, as long as Danielle stays not moving NE, and EARL "races" westward, it could catch onto the weakness and recurve much earlier.. then again it all depends on the strength of earl. I think it's moving WSW because the anticyclonic flow over Danielle is pushing it southward, but what will happen when the surface low begins to interact with Danielle's pull northward? It's unlikely the outflow would push it southward since it would follow Danielle and the shear would rip it to shreds.
Sometimes moving faster isn't a good thing for a storm looking for land or not recurving, but again it's all about timing like you said
Ah yes, this is the little secret I have kept from you all. Like MiamiHurricanes09,
I was not born yet! :o
I see I'm not the only one benefitting from DJeffs tutorials :)
That explanation makes sense.
thx
Updated: 14 min 16 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
83 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.93 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
Elevation: 20 ft
Sorry, I was AFK. Yes, I guess its a wait and see game. Hope NHC is right but, as I have been saying, I dont trust models 100%. We will see.
Well, I see the NHC finally concluded that Earl was below 16 N after all.
The real question now is when will the turn start and how sharp will it be. Earl is already West of 50 and still low enough to take it over the Leewards.
The fast forward speed is a clear indication that the ridge to the N of the system is still strong and Earl is not yet near the start of the weakness. In fact, when you look at the steering the nose of the high has pushed farther West over the last 3 hours in the wake of Danielle lifting out to the N.
The image below is the current map. While the weakness can be seen, if you visit the actual page and click on -3 hours you will see that the nose was farther East previously.
This is essentailly a race against the clock. As the ridge builds West the weakness starts to fill in and it drives Earl along very quickly. Once these systems gain a lot of momentum they tend to not turn very quickly.
If Earl starts to slow it will be a sign that it is approaching the Western periphery of the high driving the system West and it is only once that happens that we will see the lifting to the WNW begin.
If it reaches 55 W below or at 16 N the odds of a track through the NE islands goes up significantly.
Its, in my opinion, gonna come closer to nipping the OBX, and just in time for me to board the ship on friday for a cruise...
Enjoy all - will check back later in the day to see the next round of model wobble (who's fixing lunch??)
A very interesting day ahead!
Scimet
Reading the blog for a long, i'm surprised that everyone in Guadeloupe is certain that Earl will go north.
Exactly! This is what I've been trying to say but you explained it better! XD!
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