Earl maintaining Category 4 strength; hurricane watches for North Carolina
Hurricane watches are now posted for coastal North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl continues towards the west-northwest at 13 mph with little change in strength. Currently, the outer reaches of the storm are affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands, and NOAA's Wavewatch III model is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves are affecting these islands. Early this morning, waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet. Winds at Providenciales in the Turks were only 20 - 25 mph this afternoon, though Cockburn Town and Balfour Town in the extreme eastern Turks may be seeing winds near tropical storm force--40 mph.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent visible satellite loops show that the southwest side of Earl is getting eaten into by wind shear and dry air. The storm is no longer as symmetrical as 24 hours ago, and the spiral band on Earl's west side has been destroyed by dry air. Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show some moderately dry air to Earl's southwest, and very dry air to the northwest. Once Earl works its way farther to the northwest, it is possible that the persistent moderate wind shear will be able to drive this dry air deep enough into Earl's west side to significantly disrupt it. However, none of the models is predicting this, and Earl is probably large and strong enough to fend off this sort of assault. I give a 30% chance that a major dry air intrusion will significantly disrupt Earl between now and Thursday, weakening it to a Category 2 hurricane. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 - 20 mph for a day or so. There is no evidence that Earl has weakened, though, based on the latest pressure of 940 mb from the Hurricane Hunters. It is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are pretty unified in taking Earl 100 - 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina, then 150 - 300 miles off the coast of Southeast Massachusetts, then into Nova Scotia. The high degree of model unity gives confidence that this is the correct solution, but it is good to keep in mind that the average error in a 48-hour NHC forecast is about 125 miles. It is likely that Earl will bring a 15-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 15% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 5% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 8% for Eastport, Maine, and 14% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.
Next update
Dr. Rob Carver is planning an update late tonight, and I'll have a full update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think it's safe to say, Shrek's wife will be going R.I.P soon
Glad it wasn't closer Man!!....Welcome Back!!
Nothing is going to bring him back
...and 50 foot waves come crashing in!
Earl is a major! It's been steadily gaining strength and momentum. It's passing over hot, deep water. It'll hit the Gulf Stream. Further north waters reported to be at least 4 degrees higher than normal.
"...la te dah, la te dah! Gonna miss us!"
NOT - whether it makes landfall or not, it will have a hulluva an impact!
Or firefox. It's all good here.
you know better but i know him
Great timing....Monster Cat 4 off the coast!!
Disagree. The T-numbers actually went up.
I've got a Mac too and everything is fine.
MLC, I want a double of that ever your having :)
advisorys said nothing about dry air, if anything fiona will give earl her moisture.....
and anyway its not so easy to dungrade a 4-CAT to much energy, maybe high end 3, but no less.
I also have a Mac and the blog is fine for me. What is going on with it?
I'm on google chrome and i'm fine too
Fiona appears to be WELL south of the NHC Forecast Points.
Looks like Fiona might survive as Earl is starting to speed up while Fiona slows down. Their starting to put some distance between themselves.
Makes no sense. The storm is split in half with no evident circulation. There's some rotation in the SW convection but that's it.
Also guys, if you used an actual, worthwhile browser (Aka... not Internet Explorer) you would have no troubles at all with the formatting.
Theres an internet network called opera??? Weird.
People still use I.E.???
Forget +1, that's a +5.
I keep telling myself that i should do other things until 98 makes it debut, but i can't help it. not that i'm not giving credit to Earl. it's just not a GOM threat, so i shouldn't waste too much time on him
It should remain a 35kt TS.
Seems like it! XD!
www.getfirefox.com
There, get that. Leave IE behind. It's the worst browser available out there.
Once you go mac, you never go back :p
actually the center is under the northern side of the erupting convection, some energy did split from the system though.. but the system is slowing down clearly.
Jackie Guerrido
oh. i don't have the upgraded membership so I can't post images anyway.
Yes you can....just be patient - takes a moment to load -
Know exactly where Pensacola is, but not Pensicola.
You don't see the hypocrisy in defending one group of people by using a joke to belittle another group of people? If you felt mine was in bad taste, a simple statement to that effect would have sufficed. I would gladly have removed it. And being a retired opera singer may make the fatlady sings joke self-deprecating humor to you, but it does not necessarily mean it will be interpreted as such to others.
LOL. Hey, Oss and I were just posting the facts as they've been presented.
The closer Earl gets to shore, landfall or not, is only insignificant if there's not surge. There will be surge, significant surge, even miles aways with a miss. If he manages to get even closer (models seem to be debating now - heckuva a CONUS high pressure, with a lil ol' trough coming - tilted), things could get a bit ugly, even if surge is reduced by 2/3's.
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