Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl
Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.
A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.
Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.
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Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.
Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.
Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.
Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.
Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.
All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.
Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.
Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.
Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.
TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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CMC has a strong High built @ 144hrs.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html
He looks very wobbly today, but appears to be pretty well straight to the NW.
You have stroke patient's, those on dialysis machines, people in the 80's, 90's, people with small children, the list could go on and on. What has always made me proud to be an American was the thought that at times of distress we all pitched in to help those in need regardless of age, color, financial status and yes those that are less than intelligent. It's one of the reasons my heart still pounds with pride every time I see the Red, White and Blue raised.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.7N
72.7W...OR ABOUT 275 NM TO THE EAST OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N
62.2W...OR ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA...MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MENTIONED ON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT
1500 UTC...LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 35.8W...MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES NOTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AT THIS TIME.
I would agree that if the high is as strong as the CMC has it, that storm is not going to recurve that soon!
Did it all yesterday p451 before the watches came out, everyone is getting a little on edge with the hurricane watches out.
That 500MB trough off to your west is becoming vertical north to south, slowing it down.
It is a race between Earl, moving NW at 17MPH & re-intensifying as we speak and the arrival of the trough to the west, and it is beginning to look like Earl will win the race, everyone keep a CLOSE eye on this storm...
Howdy Ryan. Thanks for posting!
I was wondering the same thing.
When you consider the models have had a rightward bias for Earl most of his life, the forecasters may be discounting a shift east now.
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfdl/12zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSL000.gif
Fiona hanging very tough in the midst of marginal conditions at best right now. This system has been a fascinating one to track. She has given us quite a few surprises already.
They are for the moment. Earl is NOW forecast to continue NW into Thursday..
My motto: You aren't out of the woods until it has passed you.
Prepare, be ready for things to get bad. If they don't, you don't have to go shopping for some things later on in the winter.
Thanks, PDan .. I could only stand about a minute of your suggestion .. now I have to find something else to think about .. :(
Ok, I've done it. Here's my bullseye. Bought my water this morning. While Nantucket and MV will help avert the brunt of any storm surge on the southern side, I'm worried the Chatham break, (on the elbow) is going to have more damage, and the beaches at Nauset in Eastham, Marconi in Truro, (all up on the East side of the upright arm) and Race Point in Provincetown, right on top, heck, the entire National Seashore, (east side), is going to have monumental erosion damage.
We were at Race Point last night and the waves coming in still from Danielle were awe inspiring. Yellow flags flying, many beaches closed from a storm that far away, we haven't had something like this since Bob, and a lot of the current population wasn't living here when that happened.
All eyes on Earl. If it does come up through Buzzards Bay and Narraganset Bay, then it will be close to the path of the no name storm in 1938, which devastated the area.
For some reason I don't like the spread between GFDL and HWRF.
I regret to inform you it looks like Cape Cod will take a direct hit.
To add:
Hurricane Mitch, 2nd deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin, was a Cat 1 at landfall.
Hurrricane Fifi, 4th deadliest hurricane, was a Cat 2 at landfall.
Hurricane Flora was not just deadly because it was a Cat 4 at landfall, but because it dropped 57 inches of rain on Cuba and Hispaniola where it looped.
Some of the deadliest tropical cyclones on record did not take lives due to winds, but due to floods and storm surge - Cyclone Nargis, Bhola Cyclone of 1970, and Typhoon Nina took more than 100,000 lives each due to the water.
Euro Ensembles due west
TD9
no kidding.. most models 3-4 days ago had it turning near bermuda
IF Earl moves inland over NC, which appears UNLIKELY, the E Coast is in trouble!!
I live in Newport RI ..Bob came over the top of us and did quite a bit of damage just a few miles to our east ....winds reached 120 in gust during Bob on a navy ship docked in Middletown ..yet on the west side of the storm winds didn't even touch 70 at TF Green Airport only 15 or so miles (as the crow flies) from Newport......Boston never saw winds up near 100 either..the storm came off the coast SOUTH of Boston ..they too were on the west side
yup i wounder if she will do any more
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