Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1. CybrTeddy 16:31 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Thanks for the update doc! Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

2. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 16:31 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
thanks for update cool fall like day Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

3. sseres 16:34 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
big brother lives on Fire Island and said clouds pretty awesome, but no great rush of the ocean as they frequently get. Will cover the island sometimes! Member Since: 13 avril 2004 Posts: 35 Comments: 17

4. PELLSPROG 16:36 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
From gangbuster to lackluster in just a day :) Member Since: 4 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142

5. Stormchaser2007 16:37 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

6. Levi32 16:38 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I usually agree with you, but here I will not the NHC has not mentioned once that TD 11-E and the area in the BOC are linked and the area in the BOC showed up on the TWO last night before TD 11-E even made landfall I think the area of disturbed weather is not from TD 11-E, but that the former TD could help aid in development Models have been latching on, so I see no reason why we could not see some slow development I was puzzled as well why the NHC did not mention TD 11E in the TWO, but looking at visible loops of the area I see a pretty large circulation envelope associated with TD 11E and it extends into the southern BOC quite easily. I don't see two separate entities at all. An ASCAT pass will shortly be available but CIMSS 850mb vorticity shows the concentration of spin over Mexico in association with TD 11E, with some vorticity over the southern BOC extending northward from that, clearly having some relation with TD 11E. The rapid-scan product doesn't even have any vorticity extending into the BOC. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

7. TexasHurricane 16:38 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Gulf of Mexico disturbance A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. hmmmmmmmm....... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

8. NOSinger 16:38 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? Link?? Member Since: 1 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

9. seflagamma 16:39 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Hi Dr Jeff, thank you for the new update and photos of Earl. Guess we will watch and wait to see what happens next. Happy Saturday everyone! Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

10. Stormchaser2007 16:39 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting NOSinger: Link?? I use stormvista which I cant post. Heres NCEP which is only out to 216 hours. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

11. TropicalAnalystwx13 16:40 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? I remember. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

12. TropicalAnalystwx13 16:40 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Massive: Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

13. GTcooliebai 16:40 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? Katrina? Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

14. mahep1911 16:40 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
good afternoon all can some one please post some of the models on Gaston Thanks Member Since: 17 juillet 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 791

15. mbjjm 16:40 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Tropical Cyclone Information Statements WOCN31 CWHX 041500 Tropical storm Earl intermediate information statement issued by The Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 11.49 AM ADT Saturday 04 September 2010. The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM ADT At 12 noon ADT... Tropical storm Earl was located near latitude 44.5 N and longitude 64.2 W... Near Chester Nova Scotia. Earl began rapid acceleration this morning and is now moving Northeast at 40 knots ... 74 km/h. Maximum sustained winds are Estimated at 60 knots... 111 km/h and central pressure at 960 MB. Earl is now a strong tropical storm which began the transition to A post-tropical storm in the last couple of hours. Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia near the Shelburne Queens Counties boundary ... About 85 km southwest of Lunenburg ... Around 10:30 AM ADT. There is conflicting information as to whether Earl was a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at landfall. These details will be Sorted out in a post-storm analysis ... However the difference between the two is only 8 km/h in terms of maximum wind speeds which is easily within meteorological observation errors. The following peak wind reports were received: Baccaro Point 102 km/h ... 8 AM ADT Western Head 98 km/h ... 10 AM ADT Lunenburg 111 km/h ... 11 AM ADT Obsborne head 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT McNabs Island 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT Bedford Basin 109 km/h ... 11 AM ADT Halifax airport 111 km/h ... 11.43 AM ADT Beaver Island 104 km/h ... 11 AM ADT Browns Bank buoy ... 100 km/h West Scotian Slope buoy ... 119 km/h. The west Scotian Slope buoy also reported 13 metre significant Wave heights at 11 AM ADT. Reports received of more than 70 thousand customers with power outages. Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada. End bowyer/fogarty Member Since: 23 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

16. washingtonian115 16:41 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? Don't go there...You know that brings up memories..... Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

17. Stormchaser2007 16:42 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting mahep1911: good afternoon all can some one please post some of the models on Gaston Thanks Link Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

18. dolphingalrules 16:42 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? KATRINA??????it was a dream.. Member Since: 18 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 177

19. Levi32 16:43 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
TD 11E's center of circulation is here, over Mexico. In my mind this is too close already to the southern Bay of Campeche to have a separate entity up there...it is a surface trough extending from TD 11E, in my opinion, and the model tracks all stem from TD 11E. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

20. Stormchaser2007 16:43 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Pretty safe to say that this wont happen. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

21. 757weather 16:44 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? That'll ilivin up the blog today. haha Member Since: 21 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

22. moonlightcowboy 16:44 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28118

23. Levi32 16:45 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
GFS shows the Atlantic continuing to be active. 18 named storms still looks good to me by the time it's all over. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

24. mahep1911 16:45 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Thank you hope everyone has made it through Earl safe. Matt Member Since: 17 juillet 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 791

25. TropicalAnalystwx13 16:45 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

26. bohonkweatherman 16:47 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting washingtonian115: Don't go there...You know that brings up memories..... n The leftovers of Gaston are very small at the present time Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

28. leo305 16:47 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Pretty safe to say that this wont happen. it can happen though.. so I wouldn't say it wont Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

29. tkeith 16:47 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Goes GOM Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

30. Levi32 16:47 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Out to breakfast, later all. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

31. golfjunkie88 16:47 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Pretty safe to say that this wont happen. Why do you say that? Member Since: 31 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

32. leo305 16:48 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Pretty safe to say that this wont happen. also that model puts Gaston slamming into FL, and then Hermine coming right after.. similar to a 2004 pattern, just a wee bit south and more westerly Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

33. GTcooliebai 16:48 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Pretty safe to say that this wont happen. Hey wasn't the GFS showing recurvature yesterday, that's a flip-flop. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

34. Stormchaser2007 16:48 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting leo305: it can happen though.. so I wouldn't say it wont From Gaston... I highly doubt it. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

35. MiamiHurricanes09 16:49 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
A happy ending for JFV. We got Hurricane Gaston making landfall over Miami. LOL. 240 hours: The 12z GFS racap: Gaston: Turns into a hurricane. Passes over the northern Lesser Antilles. Then goes just north of Hispa�iola and Cuba. Then makes landfall over south Florida. Makes a final landfall over the Florida panhandle. Hermine: Develops in the BOC and tracks over Mexico. Igor: Develops into a major hurricane and does a track very similar to Earl. Julia: Becomes a hurricane; stays out to sea the entire run. Karl: Becomes a weak tropical storm and then dissipates. Lisa: Becomes a weak tropical storm at the end of the run. The GFS is scary huh? Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

36. leo305 16:49 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: From Gaston... I highly doubt it. GFS shows a moderate tropical storm though "1000mb", that isn't that strong then again GFS is never right with strength, with track, it's possible Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

37. mbjjm 16:49 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 23 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

38. Stormchaser2007 16:49 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting leo305: also that model puts Gaston slamming into FL, and then Hermine coming right after.. similar to a 2004 pattern, just a wee bit south and more westerly That system goes up the East coast. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

39. dolphingalrules 16:49 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: 12z GFS has Gaston redeveloping in the Bahamas, crossing SFL, and then making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Remind you of anyone? katrina....south fla had no power for 3 days..we were'nt ready for her....we will be ready for gaston...i'm going no to get gas, food, and bottles of vodka Member Since: 18 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 177

40. MysteryMeat 16:50 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I thought the computer models were trash? I also thought that Bonnie reminded you people of a certain storm Member Since: 25 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

41. CybrTeddy 16:50 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
GFS 192 hours out has Gaston nearing Florida and a Hurricane in the MDR, and a tropical storm behind it. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20251

42. Vero1 16:50 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

43. mbjjm 16:51 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 23 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

44. Stormchaser2007 16:51 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MysteryMeat: I thought the computer models were trash? I also thought that Bonnie reminded you people of a certain storm Did anyone say they weren't? Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

45. GTcooliebai 16:52 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: That system goes up the East coast. Which indicates a right hand turn from Gaston at some point! Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

46. MiamiHurricanes09 16:52 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Gaston hitting south Florida is 240 hours out so, it isn't reliable. All we can take from the GFS is: 1) Gaston could either go out to sea or affect land. 2) An extremely active period in the tropics is continuing. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

47. pottery 16:52 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Greetings all. It's raining here, which is very nice. The morning was HOT and steamy, so this is a nice cool-down. There be thunder rumbling overhead too.... Those extended models are looking scary, man........ Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

48. cctxshirl 16:53 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I have the feeling September will be a loooooong month! Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 316

50. Stormchaser2007 16:54 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I still think there is a rather decent chance that Gaston does not re-develop for another 3-4 days. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

51. Levi32 16:54 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Gaston hitting south Florida is 192 hours out so, it isn't reliable. All we can take from the GFS is: 1) Gaston could either go out to sea or affect land. 2) An extremely active period in the tropics is coming. You mean continuing....lol. ~~~~~~~~~ Apparently breakfast is closed on weekends, so I have to wait for brunch...lol. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

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