Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Tazmanian:



and if the blogs started in 1979 i would have 900,000 right now or even more

That just ain't right Taz. Could you imagine sitting at your computer for 30 years on this blog?

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I believe Gaston is already a TD again but no TD from the NHC at 5pm, so sad !!!

For a TD he needs convection.Not yet there...Almost!:)

Quoting StormSurgeon:


That just ain't right Taz. Could you imagine sitting at your computer for 30 years on this blog?

i be a old man lol

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I believe Gaston is already a TD again but no TD from the NHC at 5pm, so sad !!!

One little dot of convection right at the COC.

Good afternoon again.

Gaston is cycling out the dry air now and deep convection is starting to build within the core of the low. You can see the center starting to close off from the dry air in this image.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I believe Gaston is already a TD again but no TD from the NHC at 5pm, so sad !!!

THE REMNANT 1008 MB LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 16N46W MOVING
WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION SWIRL AROUND THE
LOW WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

Yup, lookin' much better.

ok what is all this talk earlier about gaston possibly hitting south florida i am located in dania beach which is just outside of miami on the water so i am eager to hear anything

Happy Labor Day weekend everybody! I'm just checking in for a few minutes to see if I have anything to worry about next week. It looks like Gaston could re-develop. If he does, he should go west and into PR and DR. Would DR be enough to kill the system off, or would we possibly have a gulf threat?

Quoting Vero1:


THE REMNANT 1008 MB LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 16N46W MOVING
WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION SWIRL AROUND THE
LOW WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

that info is from TWD at 2:05pm. now looks much better.

Dry air diminishing.




MID-LEVEL water vapor




UPPER-LEVEL water vapor

Taz,

Am I seeing that right? Is that Gaston at 288 hours GFS....(yeah, long way out, but jeesh)

Quoting Tazmanian:

Quoting belizeit:
I see the latest nogaps run puts Gaston between you and cuba at the last frame

If it goes between here and Cuba, thats not so much a worry depending on how strong though, if it goes south of here, well to be honest I get sick to my stomach just to think of it especially if its above a CAT 2

Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Yup, lookin' much better.

I cant see the

Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon again.

Gaston is cycling out the dry air now and deep convection is starting to build within the core of the low. You can see the center starting to close off from the dry air in this image.

I cant see the deep convection on the AVN :(

Quoting oceanblues32:
ok what is all this talk earlier about gaston possibly hitting south florida i am located in dania beach which is just outside of miami on the water so i am eager to hear anything

Its a wait and see game at this point, we probably have a good 5 days til we have a decent idea of the location of any possible landfall. Basically don't panic yet, just keep an eye on him

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just remembered that my 5 year old granddaughter was born on Oct 17 and came out of the hospital on Oct 18 just in time for our brush with Wilma.

We spend a lot of b-days evacuating in this family. Hubby born September 16. Son Oct.2. Grandbaby August 18. She had her first evac in 2005 at four weeks old. I swear she had a perplexed look on here face last summer, like something wasn't right. Because we didn't all load up and head north. Lol. Just found out I'm gonna be a Nana again today. I think, hope, that one won't spend their Bday on the run. My calculations April or May. :)

Quoting Goldenblack:
Taz,

Am I seeing that right? Is that Gaston at 288 hours GFS....(yeah, long way out, but jeesh)

am not sure could be per 90L in the gulf or it could be him am this not sure

Quoting WeatherfanPR:


that info is from TWD at 2:05pm. now looks much better.

I agree, just trying to dispell those that believe the Gaston is the convection to the west.

Quoting stormpetrol:

If it goes between here and Cuba, thats not so much a worry depending on how strong though, if it goes south of here, well to be honest I get sick to my stomach just to think of it especially if its above a CAT 2

Or like Gustav, right between Grand Cayman and the Brac.

1500 UTC



1800 UTC

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


We spend a lot of b-days evacuating in this family. Hubby born September 16. Son Oct.2. Grandbaby August 18. She had her first evac in 2005 at four weeks old. I swear she had a perplexed look on here face last summer, like something wasn't right. Because we didn't all load up and head north. Lol. Just found out I'm gonna be a Nana again today. I think, hope, that one won't spend their Bday on the run. My calculations April or May. :)

LOL, just in time for June 2011 evacs.

my b-day is oct 19

I have the GFS from PSU Wall, I am going to check it out...

Quoting Tazmanian:



am not sure could be per 90L in the gulf or it could be him am this not sure

Quoting Gearsts:
I cant see the I cant see the deep convection on the AVN :(

I didn't say deep convection was there. I said it was starting LOL.

sammywammybamy you think

Quoting kmanislander:
1500 UTC



1800 UTC

Kman, isn't it around D-min now and wouldn't convection be expected to increase more after the sun sets ? Just trying to figure out if I have this D-min/D-max right.

Quoting Goldenblack:
I have the GFS from PSU Wall, I am going to check it out...

that is from the 12z by the way

Quoting oceanblues32:
ok what is all this talk earlier about gaston possibly hitting south florida i am located in dania beach which is just outside of miami on the water so i am eager to hear anything

Easy now, nobody with any sense is talking about Gaston hitting Florida. Actually, we've been talking about whether it will even be able to sustain itself in the short term.

.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL, just in time for June 2011 evacs.

Lol. I didn't wanna say but with this family you're probably right. :)

Quoting CoffinWood:


Reminds me of the start of a song...

Gaston: No one says "no" to Gaston! Dismissed! Rejected! Publicly humiliated! Why, it's more than I can bear.

LeFou: More beer?

Gaston: What for? Nothing helps. I'm disgraced.

LeFou: Who, you? Never! Gaston, you've got to pull yourself together!

Haha, no one eats like Gaston no one drinks like Gaston.. classic right there!

thanks everyone that made comments..

Yes, SE Florida was on the "good side" of David and we were lucky down here .. very lucky..

but it was scary just thinking what that storm had done to DR...

but this new to Florida girl (back in '79) was prepared totally!
I had done my homework when I found out we were moving to SE Florida.. I was a weather geek even in Memphis!




Thanks again.. and yes, I remember push pins,etc..

so still no Gaston upgrade at 5pm???

I really need to do a little work around here will be back shortly.

Only goes out to 180 here on e-Wall, extrapolating, that is Gaston with possible Hermine behind....You can see the beginning of the wnw movement at the end of this run.

GFS e-Wall, 12Z, click checkbox to animate.

Quoting Goldenblack:
I have the GFS from PSU Wall, I am going to check it out...

#675 Even worse track it south of Tampa so the bay floods, out into gulf, restrengthen, then back in just north and thru Orlando

Quoting sammywammybamy:
Worst Possible Hurricane Landfall Track for South and Central Florida:



Made by Sammywammybammy.

Comments and Critism are Welcomed.

Yep, a cat 1 coming off the west coast of Florida heading toward Mobile would stink....LOL

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kman, isn't it around D-min now and wouldn't convection be expected to increase more after the sun sets ? Just trying to figure out if I have this D-min?D-mas right.

Dmin is typically the hottest time of day for wherever a system is. The time where Gaston is now is probably one or two hours ahead of us. Barbados is one hour ahead so DMIN for Gaston would have been about 2 to 3 hours ago.

DMAX is the coolest time of night for wherever the system is, which is typically around 4 am in the morning so DMAX for Gaston is probably about 10 hours away our time.

Some also refer to Dmin as just before sunset and Dmax as just before sunrise. It actually refers to the periods when the difference between ocean and air temps are the least and greatest respectively.

Quoting xcool:
my b-day is oct 19

You'll probably get a storm or two for your bday too. So far, we haven't gotten one for my daughter on November 27th. We get a Thanksgiving storm I am moving to North Dakota. Lol.

Gaston



GOM

Quoting stormpetrol:

.

Sorry about the double post I deleted it , anyone else having problems with the wunderground site with regards to speed this evening?

Gaston in an environment where he is becoming much more of a threat to develop....I give it another 24-36hrs.

Quoting seflagamma:
so still no Gaston upgrade at 5pm???

I really need to do a little work around here will be back shortly.

Quoting kmanislander:


Dmin is typically the hottest time of day for wherever a system is. The time where Gaston is now is probably one or two hours ahead of us. Barbados is one hour ahead so DMIN for Gaston would have been about 2 to 3 hours ago.

DMAX is the coolest time of night for wherever the system is, which is typically around 4 am in the morning so DMAX for Gaston is probably about 10 hours away our time.

So, no wonder he is slow on building convection right now, correct ?

Long way out....especially considering how off the gfs and company were with Earl, but this is a different setup, not relying on a trough to come it....instead calling for building high pressure. Correct me if I am wrong, but the models do a much better job with that scenario. However, still stressing 200 hours...whew, long way out.

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Yep, a cat 1 coming off the west coast of Florida heading toward Mobile would stink....LOL

Quoting weatherman12345:

from hurricane andrew

That pic always gives me the shivers.

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Easy now, nobody with any sense is talking about Gaston hitting Florida. Actually, we've been talking about whether it will even be able to sustain itself in the short term.

actually someone ealier had a model run out 240 hrs that had it over top of miami so i was not sure i guess will just have to start getting prepared anyway in case!!!