Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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951. HurricaneSwirl 23:12 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I think it'll stay at 80%. Really not a reason to lower it, but at this point to raise it would mean that it is or is just a SLIVER under TD status, and I think it's convection scenario is just a tad more than a sliver under TD status. A good blow-up and bam we have Gaston again. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

953. aquak9 23:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: I used to do that till I scratched my uh, um..my uh. I touched my eyes too afterward. Yikes! BIG mistake! I just buy em now. Wear rubber gloves when I eating 'em. kankun- I pulled the string tight with my teeth, and am paying for it now. Feel like I just made out with a blow torch. These things are DEADLY. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

955. weatherwart 23:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Thanks Ike, Vero1. It's tough to see, and my eyes are older than yours, Ike. ;) Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

956. HurricaneSwirl 23:14 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: Would you name your son Gaston? Now in at quarterback Gaston Farvre. Now on the tee Gaston Woods. No wonder he fizzed. Not cool man, that's my name. JK. Member Since: 7 juillet 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

957. LADobeLady 23:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: hi LAdobelady! so how long do I have, before Hurricane Gerbil hits Florida? Like, at least 8 days, right? It depends on how long he spins in his wheel :P Member Since: 29 juillet 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

958. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: What does the 18Z REED model do with Xaston? Stop picking on Reed, its getting old. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

960. IKE 23:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: Would you name your son Gaston? Now in at quarterback Gaston Farvre. Now on the tee Gaston Woods. No wonder he fizzed. lol. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

961. aquak9 23:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: What does the 18Z REED model do with Xaston? something about Vorticity, D-Jeff. I thought it was rude, you still being in mourning over the cat and all... Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

962. MiamiHurricanes09 23:17 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
The area in the BOC should get bumped another 10%, evidently has gotten better organized over the past few hours. The vort max is now over water too. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

964. MiamiHurricanes09 23:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: Not cool man, that's my name. JK. LMAO! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

965. weatherwart 23:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: kankun- I pulled the string tight with my teeth, and am paying for it now. Feel like I just made out with a blow torch. These things are DEADLY. aquak, are y'all talking about datil peppers? I bought some "all purpose" datil pepper sauce in St. Augustine once, splashed a bunch on some scrambled eggs one morning... holy moley!! I never did that again. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

967. Hurricanes101 23:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The area in the BOC should get bumped another 10%, evidently has gotten better organized over the past few hours. The vort max is now over water too. there is a 1008mb surface low there now on the southern end of the surface trof Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

968. tropicfreak 23:19 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Tropicaldan: Very relieved to see the remnants of Gaston continue to struggle and hopefully this will be officially written off very soon. There was something of a Gastonmania at one point here on St Martin with level-headed people referring to it as the 'next Luis' and a virtual certainty to hit the island, etc etc There is still some good circulation to be concerned about, but the closer it gets to the islands without getting its act together the better and better it looks for us. Dan Nope, even though it has lost some convection, the surface circulation is still there, and organizing as a matter of fact. Don't ever judge a storm by it's looks, or what my parents have been telling me, don't judge a book by its cover. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

969. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:19 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The area in the BOC should get bumped another 10%, evidently has gotten better organized over the past few hours. The vort max is now over water too. #918 Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

970. TcuFrogs 23:22 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
WU Blog and College Football. Can't get any better. Lets just hope we can track any storms that turn out to be fish. Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 49

971. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:23 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Tropical Weather Outlook coming out soon... Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

972. MiamiHurricanes09 23:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: there is a 1008mb surface low there now on the southern end of the surface trof Yeah, you can see it quite clearly on the visible loop. We should get an invest there at 00z since there is a low pressure/center area to initialize on. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

973. bwt1982 23:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Tropics are dead again! Florida definetly dodged a bullet in 2010! Hopefully next year will follow the same pattern! Member Since: 29 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

974. aquak9 23:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
weatherwart- I have Datil seeds, but I forgot to plant them. These are Cayenne, old stock. I have no idea why I am growing them. It's like little nuclear bombs. They are pretty, but deadly. No I do not eat them. Hell no. KanKun is right. Nuclear powered rear-end Vorticity comes to mind. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

975. liljade 23:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Low looks to be over land/over water. Its become better organized...I'd give it a 50% chance, however, the NHC will likely up it to 40% or keep it at 30%. 60% is a VERY distinct possibility. are there 2 different lows in the gulf? Or just one big one? Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59

976. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:25 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
POLL TIME! At 8PM, how strong will TS Earl be? A. 40 mph B. 50 mph C. 60 mph D. 70 mph E. In between the choices, or lower/higher. At 8PM, the BOC system will be at: A. 30% B. 40% C. 50% D. 60% E. Lower/Higher At 8PM, Ex-Gaston will be at: A. 50% B. 60% C. 70% D. 80% E. Higher/Lower At 8PM, Invest 99L will be at: A. Near 0% B. 10% C. 20% D. 30% Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

978. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:27 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting liljade: are there 2 different lows in the gulf? Or just one big one? Uno Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

979. PSLFLCaneVet 23:27 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: weatherwart- I have Datil seeds, but I forgot to plant them. These are Cayenne, old stock. I have no idea why I am growing them. It's like little nuclear bombs. They are pretty, but deadly. No I do not eat them. Hell no. KanKun is right. Nuclear powered rear-end Vorticity comes to mind. That should be 15 yards and loss of down due to awful hind sight imagery. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

980. originalLT 23:27 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
2010 is NOT OVER, bwt1982, you should know that. Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5056

982. tropicfreak 23:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: POLL TIME! At 8PM, how strong will TS Earl be? A. 40 mph B. 50 mph C. 60 mph D. 70 mph E. In between the choices, or lower/higher. At 8PM, the BOC system will be at: A. 30% B. 40% C. 50% D. 60% E. Lower/Higher Earl: C BOC:D Don't forget to add the remnants of gaston. A Same B: 70% C:90% D:100% I chose C. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

984. reedzone 23:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: What does the 18Z REED model do with Xaston? Jeff I wouldn't do that, scottsvb would deff respond back in a mean way, like he always does (sigh) Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

985. InTheCone 23:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: weatherwart- I have Datil seeds, but I forgot to plant them. These are Cayenne, old stock. I have no idea why I am growing them. It's like little nuclear bombs. They are pretty, but deadly. No I do not eat them. Hell no. KanKun is right. Nuclear powered rear-end Vorticity comes to mind. Now that is funny, unless of course you are the person who ate them - LOL!! Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

986. Vero1 23:29 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting liljade: are there 2 different lows in the gulf? Or just one big one? At 2pm there were NO lows in the GOM a couple Trofs. We will see in a 1/2 hr Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

987. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting tropicfreak: Earl: C BOC:D Don't forget to add the remnants of gaston. A Same B: 70% C:90% D:100% I chose C. I know. As soon as I posted it, I went back and edited it. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

988. Tazmanian 23:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
99L RIP invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren 1 KB 9/4/2010 9:14:00 PM Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

990. MiamiHurricanes09 23:31 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
99L deactivated; likely won't get mentioned in the TWO. invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

991. tropicfreak 23:31 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I know. As soon as I posted it, I went back and edited it. As for 99L I chose c. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

993. aquak9 23:32 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
poof on the peppers Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

994. IKE 23:32 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: 99L RIP invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren 1 KB 9/4/2010 9:14:00 PM RIP 99L....and I'm sorry, I never paid any attention to you anyway. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

995. liljade 23:32 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Looks like something in the middle of the gulf and something in the BOC. Reminds me of Alicia in 1983 starting in the middle. Member Since: 18 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59

996. clwstmchasr 23:32 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: 99L RIP invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren 1 KB 9/4/2010 9:14:00 PM Thanks Taz. On the ball as usual. Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755

997. Grothar 23:33 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Interesting how the HWRF maintains ex-Gaston while the GFDL has dropped it. Are they playing "I know something you don't know"? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

998. KoritheMan 23:33 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Are you new here? He's both new and ignorant. Can't beat that. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433

999. MiamiHurricanes09 23:33 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Are you new here? No, he's a troll. He's been on my poof list for a couple months now. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1001. Tazmanian 23:33 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting IKE: RIP 99L....and I'm sorry, I never paid any attention to you anyway. lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

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