Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1151. Levi32 00:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Seems to be a persistent bugger. Will the low/mid-level flow move it into Mexico, or could it ride the frontal boundary somewhere east? Systems on the tail-ends of frontal troughs don't usually move along the front. If they do, that usually implies that they are more baroclinic in nature. My feeling is that former TD 11E will ride near the coastline but not fully emerge over the BOC. However, reformation of the low center farther to the northeast may occur, such as is depicted on the WRF model and others. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1152. InTheCone 00:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting superweatherman: EVEN WORSE... WOW... D@#! I don't recall ever seeing TCHP that high in the eastern Carrib. the whole area is rocket fuel for a developed system. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

1154. txraysfan 00:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: on top of me lol You must be close to corpus-Port O'Connor about 30 min away from me Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1155. PSLFLCaneVet 00:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: Systems on the tail-ends of frontal troughs don't usually move along the front. If they do, that usually implies that they are more baroclinic in nature. My feeling is that former TD 11E will ride near the coastline but not fully emerge over the BOC. However, reformation of the low center farther to the northeast may occur, such as is depicted on the WRF model and others. Thanks Levi, couldn't tell for sure how far west the front extended. Hope school is going well. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1156. hu2007 00:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Link still have nice low level swirl Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1157. SirTophamHatt 00:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I'm surprised the Caribbean isn't boiling Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

1158. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25142

1159. Hurricanes101 00:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
oh well Ex-Gaston has weakened according to the atcf AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1160. Levi32 00:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I think the wave right behind 99L is far more likely to develop. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1161. hu2007 00:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
and is starting to move south of due west in the last 2 frames Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1162. gtownTX 00:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Does Ex Gaston still keep the name of Gaston if it regenerates? Or do they go through the Invest, TD, TS to the next name? Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

1163. txraysfan 00:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting SirTophamHatt: I'm surprised the Caribbean isn't boiling Right? I think Storm told me we could pull our seafood out already cooked! lol Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1164. Levi32 00:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Look at SW Africa, near 8N, 8-10W. That's the one to watch. Satellite Loop Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1165. Grecojdw 00:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: oh well Ex-Gaston has weakened according to the atcf AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO They mentioned that and it is suppose to. Won't start cranking up till after 55W according to Kman. Member Since: 6 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

1166. InTheCone 00:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: On 99L, IMO, here's what they should be looking at. There's an uncontaminated 30kt wind flag on the NW side of that circle. Is it embedded in the ITCZ? Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

1167. hurricane556 00:22 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: Look at SW Africa, near 8N, 8-10W. That's the one to watch. Satellite Loop that could be the one the gfs develops into a hurricane in eastern Atlantic after gaston. Member Since: 16 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

1168. CyclonicVoyage 00:22 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Evening All. Have to say Gaston is kinda concerning. Kind of like a powder keg with a long fuse. The persistence of Gaston is what is concerning. When it finds decent conditions it will blow, IMO. They will come sooner or later in his trek across the ocean, it's September and unfortunately he will be much closer to land. Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1169. Neapolitan 00:22 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Looks like the 2010 Great African Wave Train isn't taking a break anytime soon. So long as those Indian Ocean monsoonal tendrils are reaching westward, it'll keep moving: Click for larger image: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142

1170. Vero1 00:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: a 1008mb surface low has formed in the BOC at the end of the surface trof Did you read the 8:00pm? TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS DIGS SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT LINING THE NE GULF COAST FROM S OF ERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W CONTINUING NE ACROSS GEORGIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE LONGWAVE S OF LOUISIANA EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 27N89W 24N93W 20N94W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS NW OF THIS TROUGH PARALLELING THE TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG 28N93W TO 25N97W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR ALL THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF S OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS TROUGH. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

1171. Levi32 00:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Blob of 850mb vorticity is associated with the SW Africa wave on CIMSS analysis: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1172. Grecojdw 00:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
And that's the key. That is a vigorous low level swirl with that system. You saw how long it took to finally kill Fiona and the conditions right now and in the future are not even hostile compared to what Fiona had to deal with. Member Since: 6 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

1173. MiamiHurricanes09 00:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: I think the wave right behind 99L is far more likely to develop. Yeah, PGI41L. It's already accompanied by a broad area of low pressure. The GFS develops it into a major, the ECMWF has been back and forth. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1174. RuBRNded 00:25 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: Evening All. Have to say Gaston is kinda concerning. Kind of like a powder keg with a long fuse. The persistence of Gaston is what is concerning. When it finds decent conditions it will blow, IMO. They will come sooner or later in his trek across the ocean, it's September and unfortunately he will be much closer to land. Yup, the discussion that the short minded seam to forget is that he is not forecast to be much till the Caribbean. As forecast two days ago. Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1176. PSLFLCaneVet 00:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Lord, the nightmare continues. Did you really have to post that? LOL. After 36 hours in high winds, some of them the longest in my life, Frances continues to plague my memory. No offense to my wife. Our first son's birth, she was 23 hours in labor. I still have scars on my arms from where she dug her fingernails in. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1177. Vero1 00:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER INTERIOR W AFRICA ALONG 14N7W 5N8W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW ALONG AND THE AXIS NEAR 8N. HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM EXAMINATION AND UPPER AIR TIME-SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THIS WAVE PASSED NIAMEY NIGER AROUND 03/2100 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 9W-15W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20N19W 14N23W 8N26W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE WITH SW MONSOONAL FLOW E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 24W-27W. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

1179. BDADUDE 00:28 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I sit corrected ! You wouldnt be sitting if you ate a scotch bonnet jalapeno. Trust me on that one. You wouldnt be able to sit for a week!!! Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

1180. kimoskee 00:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I grow the dreaded Scotch Bonnet pepper, known to make grown men cry and beg for ice cream, or any cream for that matter Not for the faint of heart or constitution ! Now that's real pepper! My husband loves them! Member Since: 17 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1181. ElConando 00:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Looks like 11pm will be the last Advisory for Earl. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1182. Hurricanes101 00:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Vero1: Did you read the 8:00pm? TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS DIGS SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT LINING THE NE GULF COAST FROM S OF ERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W CONTINUING NE ACROSS GEORGIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE LONGWAVE S OF LOUISIANA EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 27N89W 24N93W 20N94W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS NW OF THIS TROUGH PARALLELING THE TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG 28N93W TO 25N97W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR ALL THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF S OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 19N94W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS TROUGH. what about it? Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1183. MiamiHurricanes09 00:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting ElConando: Looks like 11pm will be the last Advisory for Earl. Yup. Looks extratropical. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1184. superpete 00:31 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Post 1164-Levi32 Amazing to see that much spin so far inland? Interesting to see when it emerges into the E Atl. Member Since: 10 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 498

1185. Levi32 00:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yup. Looks extratropical. Ya it is. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1186. caneswatch 00:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I remember that day all too well, it was a day and a half of hell. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1187. Vero1 00:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Most likely ...ITCZ... A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N28W 8N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE TROUGH ALONG 11N41W 9N50W 8N59W 6N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 27W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-46W. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

1189. JLPR2 00:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
good structure, needs convection I have said the obvious LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1190. ElConando 00:35 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yup. Looks extratropical. That and their running outta room on the outlook map :P. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

1191. InTheCone 00:35 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Gaston is one of those systems that has to be watched because of it's potential. It hopefully will never amount to anything, but how many systems have we seen that appear to be dead and the come back to be major problems? I can think of at least 2 that caused severe damage, won't even bother to name them, everybody here knows them.... Just have to hope that this is one that Poofs! Always have to watch them till they are DEAD! Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

1193. Levi32 00:36 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Vero1: ...ITCZ... A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N28W 8N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS W OF THE TROUGH ALONG 11N41W 9N50W 8N59W 6N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 27W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-46W. Wow, they called it a monsoonal trough. Weather456 would be proud. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

1194. TropicalAnalystwx13 00:36 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I uploaded my own pictures I've been saving... Click here to see them Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25142

1195. MiamiHurricanes09 00:36 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
00z dynamical plots show a Geroges track all over again. These "G" storms are bad. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1196. hydrus 00:36 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting caneswatch: I remember that day all too well, it was a day and a half of hell. What day are you referring to? Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

1198. Hurricanes101 00:37 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: good structure, needs convection I have said the obvious LOL! already building convection Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1199. ShenValleyFlyFish 00:38 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
1150. Levi32 7:14 PM EST on September 04, 2010 I can see why, but ya....NHC still follows the models very closely. Can you honestlysay you could have called the turn as closely with Earl as they did without looking at a model? Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1200. Vero1 00:38 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: lol no i live in brownsville tx thats why i posted the graphic cause it was over me Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

1201. JLPR2 00:38 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: already building convection Yeah, but it needs more, much more XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

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