Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index

1251. Levi32 01:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting canehater1: Levi, what do you see happening with the trof in the BOC ? At the moment I feel that the circulation of former TD 11E, which is still largely over Mexico, will be riding the coast NNW-ward but will not fully emerge. This would result in a whole lot of rain but probably no development. However, if the low center reforms to the northeast over the water, which is possible, we could be dealing with tropical development under pretty favorable conditions. The only limiting factor here is land, so a lot depends on if the low reforms. Right now, I think it is more likely that we don't get a tropical cyclone out of it, but it should be watched. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1252. muddertracker 01:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Someone please tell me that the NHC is overexaggerating with the 40% in the BOC. Go ahead, lie to me..I can take it. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1253. xcool 01:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
lol Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1254. Tazmanian 01:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting muddertracker: Someone please tell me that the NHC is overexaggerating with the 40% in the BOC. Go ahead, lie to me..I can take it. hmm nop they mean it there is a 40% ch Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1255. HouGalv08 01:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: I just hope that if Gaston passes close or over us the government could try something smarter than last time. Chaos and it didn't even make a direct hit. :\ Chaos was watching the south end of Houston evacuating ahead of Rita, and seeing it in REAL TIME, not on the TV news! Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313

1256. nw5b 01:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I love how someone calls someone else a complete idiot, but spells the word "you're" wrong lol Kind of ironic huh? I've noticed that most of the "trolls" on the blog are really bad at spelling, punctuation and grammar. Makes them easy to spot...LOL. Member Since: 3 janvier 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

1258. BrandiQ 01:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: ugh its JFV Can't be... everything is spelled correctly... maybe it was the "^_^" that gave it away... Member Since: 25 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1259. SouthDadeFish 01:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Not sure if its been reported here yet, but check out the pressure dropping at this buoy in the GOMEX. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1260. hydrus 01:07 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x: :00 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 Location: 49.4°N 60.4°W Max sustained: 65 mph Moving: NNE at 45 mph Min pressure: 966 mb WOW MOVING NE AT 45 MPH..AND GOING INTO WATER TEMP AROUND 50F I would guess Earl will be kicking butt for a while.. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14252

1261. EricSFL 01:07 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting nw5b: I've noticed that most of the "trolls" on the blog are really bad at spelling, punctuation and grammar. Makes them easy to spot...LOL. But not all that are bad at spelling, punctuation and grammar are "trolls". Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

1263. PrivateIdaho 01:09 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TX2FL: Lurking for awhile..don't come out much..but if anyone's seen Disney's "Beauty and the Beast"..this should ring a bell.. GASTON No one's slick as Gaston No one's quick as Gaston No one's neck's as incredibly thick as Gaston's For there's no man in town half as manly Perfect, a pure paragon! You can ask any Tom, Dick, or Stanley And they'll tell you whose team they prefer to be on No one's been like Gaston A kingpin like Gaston No one's got a swell cleft in his chin like Gaston As a specimen, yes, I'm intimidating! My, what a guy, that Gaston! Give five, "Hurrahs!" Give twelve, "Hip hips!" Gaston is the best and the rest is all drips You must have kids...LOL! I couldn't remember which character Gaston was until you posted that. Well done! Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1264. HouGalv08 01:09 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Not sure if its been reported here yet, but check out the pressure dropping at this buoy in the GOMEX. Hmmmm.......interesting Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313

1265. Tazmanian 01:10 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting BrandiQ: Can't be... everything is spelled correctly... maybe it was the "^_^" that gave it away... yup it was Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1266. Levi32 01:10 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Out to dinner, later all. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25443

1267. weatherwart 01:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: The whole problem with modern forecasting is the government has seemingly submitted to the idea that the models we have created are in and of themselves the best forecast humans can provide. As a result, many NWS and NHC forecasts are based on the consensus of the forecast models. The problem with that philosophy is that it's so wrong. I can't even count how many times the models have been consistently burned by forecasters who know what they're doing and are able to diagnose a mistake in the models, even if ALL of them are doing it. How many times this hurricane season already have the models been very wrong? A lot... Guess what? We can do better. It's been proven the human brain is better than a computer. It can be done. Very well written, Levi. I think the same can be said for many professionals who rely too heavily on technology. An excellent physician, for example, will thoroughly assess the patient and listen to what he says, not rely soley on the lab tests. I'm glad to hear school is going well for you. I do miss your blog, though. :) Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

1268. Tazmanian 01:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Not sure if its been reported here yet, but check out the pressure dropping at this buoy in the GOMEX. Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady ) yes that above is interesting lol Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1269. SouthDadeFish 01:12 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.00 in ( Steady ) yes that above is interesting lol They just updated it. Before it was 0.6 mb. Its fallen from 1012 mb. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2417

1270. Grecojdw 01:13 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting BrandiQ: Can't be... everything is spelled correctly... maybe it was the "^_^" that gave it away... Maybe there needs to be alarms sounds on this forum for a JFV alert. Like a Tornado Warning or something:) Member Since: 6 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

1271. HouGalv08 01:13 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting F4PHANTOM: Sat on the N end watching everyone stuck in a traffic jam. After making preps for Rita, stared taking gallons of water to people on the freeway. Son and I used a wagon to go the two blocks carrying as much water as we could. It was total chaos. I went to work that morning the evac started to get our last aircraft out of IAH. At 0530 looking south on an overpass, headlights as far as I could see, going north. It was an astounding sight to see. AT 1500 that afternoon, the traffic jam still there. What normally takes me 10 min to get from the airport to the house, took 30min that day. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 313

1272. PSLFLCaneVet 01:14 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting nw5b: I've noticed that most of the "trolls" on the blog are really bad at spelling, punctuation and grammar. Makes them easy to spot...LOL. LMAO, yeah ironic isn't it? Seems like, the more syllables, the less they understand. Also, they tend to like "shouting". I guess "all caps" makes them feel good. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1274. muddertracker 01:15 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grecojdw: Maybe there needs to be alarms sounds on this forum for a JFV alert. Like a Tornado Warning or something:) Yup. And we could get tornadodue to chase him...on a live feed!@!! Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1275. txraysfan 01:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HouGalv08: I went to work that morning the evac started to get our last aircraft out of IAH. At 0530 looking south on an overpass, headlights as far as I could see, going north. It was an astounding sight to see. AT 1500 that afternoon, the traffic jam still there. What normally takes me 10 min to get from the airport to the house, took 30min that day. Hubby went and picked up a relative, and from Hwy 6 to Rosenburg took 4 hours Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1276. InTheCone 01:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting weatherwart: Very well written, Levi. I think the same can be said for many professionals who rely too heavily on technology. An excellent physician, for example, will thoroughly assess the patient and listen to what he says, not rely soley on the lab tests. I'm glad to hear school is going well for you. I do miss your blog, though. :) This is absolutely true; an old school physician saved my son's life by correctly diagnosing him based on his experience. The same bug killed Jim Henson(muppets creator) because it was not correctly identified in time. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

1277. Tazmanian 01:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: where do you see Gaston going, Levi? hes gone Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1278. nw5b 01:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting EricSFL: But not all that are bad at spelling, punctuation and grammar are "trolls". Agreed. The non trolls just need to pay attention, try harder and check their work before they click post. Member Since: 3 janvier 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

1279. PrivateIdaho 01:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: The whole problem with modern forecasting is the government has seemingly submitted to the idea that the models we have created are in and of themselves the best forecast humans can provide. As a result, many NWS and NHC forecasts are based on the consensus of the forecast models. The problem with that philosophy is that it's so wrong. I can't even count how many times the models have been consistently burned by forecasters who know what they're doing and are able to diagnose a mistake in the models, even if ALL of them are doing it. How many times this hurricane season already have the models been very wrong? A lot... Guess what? We can do better. It's been proven the human brain is better than a computer. It can be done. I believe that is because humans are programed to pickup on patterns and we can subconsiously apply very obscure knowledge to our decision making. That being said, the models tend to perform pretty well when they have lots of accurate data to work with (i.e. HH or land based readings. I also think that due to the chaotic nature of the math dealing with curved surfaces and fluids that we are quickly approaching the accuracy that is possible using predictive models or expert humans. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1283. PtownBryan 01:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HouGalv08: Chaos was watching the south end of Houston evacuating ahead of Rita, and seeing it in REAL TIME, not on the TV news! Please let's forget that nightmare! Never again! Bring on a cat 5 I ain't going nowhere! Well, ok maybe lol. Member Since: 5 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

1284. PSLFLCaneVet 01:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting InTheCone: This is absolutely true; an old school physician saved my son's life by correctly diagnosing him based on his experience. The same bug killed Jim Henson(muppets creator) because it was not correctly identified in time. Glad to hear of your good fortune. My mom died from complications with pancreatic cancer. Not convinced she got the best care available. Doctors are like mechanics, shop around before you let them work on your pride and joy. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1285. PtownBryan 01:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Come on Bay of Campeche mositure make it up to Houston we need some rain the grass is brown! Member Since: 5 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

1286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
from nothing it comes Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

1287. hunkerdown 01:22 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: from nothing it comes or...here comes nothing Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

1288. BrandiQ 01:22 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting muddertracker: Yup. And we could get tornadodue to chase him...on a live feed!@!! LMAO!! We should be nice. He has been quite this year... or maybe his IP address was banned... Member Since: 25 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1291. InTheCone 01:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Glad to hear of your good fortune. My mom died of pancreatic cancer. Not convinced she got the best care available. Doctors are like mechanics, shop around before you let them work on your pride and joy. Indeed, my wife died of breast cancer. I will say that her care was excellent, but it is very hard to find the best care and we were fortunate. We were very blessed with my son, he could have easily perished without a correct dignosis. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

1292. muddertracker 01:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Ya know, I don't think it is possible to over exaggerate (good spelling though) It's like being more pregnant. lol..I don't think cyclogenesis is as cut and dry as pregnancy... "But I can't be pregnant...there was sheer! there WAS sheer!" Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1293. BrandiQ 01:27 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Gaston confusing the heck out of the GFS. The last time I looked it didn't even form Gaston at all (or maybe a little bit), however it does build a super-storm behind it... Member Since: 25 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1295. AllBoardedUp 01:28 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HouGalv08: I went to work that morning the evac started to get our last aircraft out of IAH. At 0530 looking south on an overpass, headlights as far as I could see, going north. It was an astounding sight to see. AT 1500 that afternoon, the traffic jam still there. What normally takes me 10 min to get from the airport to the house, took 30min that day. What normally took my wife 2 hours to travel from Hitchcock to Trinity took 36 hours. Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

1297. Krycek1984 01:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
It's bizarre to announce that you've put someone announce on ignore. As if anyone cares. Member Since: 5 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 272

1298. PSLFLCaneVet 01:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Gaston confusing the heck out of the GFS. Glad to see you back on DestinJeff. Measured amounts of humor tend to modify the blog environment. Your changing avatars are entertaining, if sometimes, well.... Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1299. hu2007 01:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: I just hope that if Gaston passes close or over us the government could try something smarter than last time. Chaos and it didn't even make a direct hit. :\ jajaja you right, stupid fortu~o ;) Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1301. Krycek1984 01:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: At any rate, with 'Gaston's recent performance, I expect the NHC will want convection persisting at least 12 hours before upgrading. Bursting and collapsing convection won't cut it. Yes Yes! Good Point. Some on here yesterday were saying it was already a TD, or would go straight to TS, etc. It never fails. Member Since: 5 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 272

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters