Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010 +2
Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.


Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)
Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.
Hurricane Earl Waves
Earl The Pearl (teach50)
Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.
Earl The Pearl
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4
Categories: Hurricane
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1352. Tazmanian 01:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
this added # 26 too the Ignore
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
1353. HurricaneGeek 01:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


Not much going on here, this will be a long night. XD


There is some new convection new the center. Well shall I say there is A new convection near the center. There is ONE convention near the center! jajaja

Me alegro de ver que sobrevivieras gaston!
Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1354. ElvisVomDrachenbrau 01:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Thanks for the welcomes everyone.
Here are the peak winds (in KM/PH) as reported by the CHC as Earl blew by the Halifax area.
MCNABS ISLAND 130
OBSBORNE HEAD 128
HALIFAX HARBOUR BUOY 122
HALIFAX AIRPORT 120
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE BUOY 119
SHEARWATER JETTY 117
BEDFORD BASIN 115

EVD
Member Since: 1 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
1355. HurricaneGeek 01:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
HurricaneGeek they both have more

Gaston at 0.37
Bonnie at 0.37


Thanks.
Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1356. uptxcoast 01:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
The BOC area has a big flare up right on the Yucatan west coast... Probably nothing but needs to be watched.
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1357. hurristat 01:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


Lucky you, my professors introduced themselves and gave me homework all in one class. -.-


This is good -- why miss an opportunity to learn?
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1358. ShenValleyFlyFish 01:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
KanKunKid
When the folks started RIPing Gaston I almost posted "He's not ALL dead just Mostly dead" but I figured no one would get it.
Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
1360. wunderkidcayman 01:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
no problemo
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1362. FLNative45 01:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Interestingly enough, at least here in W Palm Beach, although Jeanne was stronger, there wasn't as much damage from her as there was from Frances because France took care of 90% of what there was to be knocked down. That's not to say that Jeanne was damage free, not by a long shot. However, France did take care of a lot of potential damage.

That's just my 3 cents jajaja


Same thing happened here in Vero Beach - trees down, not a leaf left on anything still standing after Frances. Jeanne just moved all the debris piles around, requiring another full yard cleanup. Six years later, everything looks pretty much back to normal - hope it stays that way!
Member Since: 19 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
1363. hurristat 01:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


There is some new convection new the center. Well shall I say there is A new convection near the center. There is ONE convention near the center! jajaja



Although English is not your first language, I would like to point out that convection cannot be made into a singular noun -- it describes a phenomenon, and therefore you cannot have "one convection," but rather, just "convection."


Me alegro de ver que sobrevivieras gaston!


Uh... why would you be happy to see Gaston alive again? That sounds slightly sadistic...
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1366. EricSFL 01:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting Krycek1984:


Now that I have trouble swallowing. Hurricanes have been happening on Earth for millions, or even billions, of years. And they certainly have been impacting Florida for millions. So, saltwater intrusion in the Everglades should be viewed as a natural cycle.

Same thing when barrier islands get split in two...that's what nature does.

The problems arise when:
1. Humans have altered the environment so much that we make the natural occurrence worse, and
2. It effects humans because we build houses on the beach and drain swamps/marshes, etc.


Of course they are part of a natural cycle, as earthquakes are. Yet, they both cause damage and can alter the landscape.
Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759
1367. zoomiami 01:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
I've been admiring all the big trees, the lush landscaping, and filled in areas for the last month or so. Can't imagine a hurricane coming through and taking it all out again. After Andrew there wasn't a piece of green for miles.
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1368. moonlightcowboy 02:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
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1369. NewBdoBdo 02:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
That's a good one Shen Valley..forgot that line Very appropriate
Loved the movie too
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1370. SirTophamHatt 02:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Something will have to push the BOC disturbance about 500 miles east for it to be able to develop into a threat.

I see the models still have 99l heading straight for Iceland.
Member Since: 25 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1372. JLPR2 02:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


There is some new convection new the center. Well shall I say there is A new convection near the center. There is ONE convention near the center! jajaja

Me alegro de ver que sobrevivieras gaston!


There is a speck of convection to the SW of the center LOL! XD
And if you mean that you're happy Gaston is a live how dare you! :P If you mean that you're happy cause I survived Earl, well yes thank you! XD
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1373. Tazmanian 02:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting SirTophamHatt:
Something will have to push the BOC disturbance about 500 miles east for it to be able to develop into a threat.

I see the models still have 99l heading straight for Iceland.



99L got drop
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
1374. JLPR2 02:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting hurristat:


This is good -- why miss an opportunity to learn?


I would like my brain to move from it's inactive phase to a more active one without causing a shock to it. LOL
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1375. kingzfan104 02:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
1376. hurristat 02:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting KanKunKid:


It happens, means no harm. Comes from interest in Hurricanes here on the blog you know, the "Frankenstein syndrome" "ITS ALIVE!! AH HAHAHAAAAA!"

It happens to many of us. Short term memory loss, headaches, fatigue, carpel tunnel, bloating, the inability to hold back flatulence in a crowded elevator. No, it's not an easy thing to deal with, but we come her to get support from our friends who understand us and can help with our therapy.
...or the essence thereof..


LOL I mean I understand the want to have something to track -- I've been following hurricanes for a while, I just haven't posted for a year or so, so I understand that, but to actually want to have it back... :/

also, LOL to the second portion :P
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1378. hurristat 02:07 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


I would like my brain to move from it's inactive phase to a more active one without causing a shock to it. LOL


Sometimes the best way to get acclimated to the water is to jump right in.
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1379. HurricaneGeek 02:07 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting hurristat:



Although English is not your first language, I would like to point out that convection cannot be made into a singular noun -- it describes a phenomenon, and therefore you cannot have "one convection," but rather, just "convection."




Uh... why would you be happy to see Gaston alive again? That sounds slightly sadistic...


Ok sorry.

Also, just the way you conjugate verbs in spanish.. the "____-s" ending on the verbs means YOU.
So in fact I said I was glad he survived Gaston.

If I said I am glad gaston survived it would be...

Me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston ... notice, no S on the end of the verb.
Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1380. AllStar17 02:09 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
I'll have graphics again, after the 11:00 pm advisory. It's been a few days since I've done them because of a busy schedule.
Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135
1382. tropicfreak 02:10 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting poknsnok:
gaston is gastgone


Really, just because there isn't a lot of convection around it doesn't mean its surface circulation isn't organized.
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1383. HurricaneGeek 02:10 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah but no S on the end of the verb could also mean you're Cuban.


jajajaja I actually laughed out loud =)
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1385. MoltenIce 02:12 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Gaston needs more convection or he'll go poof.
(Admins, can you fix the image buttons on Chrome or anyother WebKit browser please :) )
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1387. bluenosedave 02:12 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting PcolaDan:


What I hate is that most of them end up in a dump somewhere. Old hardwoods should go to a lumber mill or sold to craftsmen as logs. Don't just let them go to waste.


Halifax lost a LOT of trees in Juan, but many were salvaged for lumber. In Point Pleasant Park (which looked like a bomb hit it afterwards) some were made into park benches.
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1388. JLPR2 02:13 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting hurristat:


Sometimes the best way to get acclimated to the water is to jump right in.


Yeah XD
Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
1389. tropicfreak 02:13 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ok sorry.

Also, just the way you conjugate verbs in spanish.. the "____-s" ending on the verbs means YOU.
So in fact I said I was glad he survived Gaston.

If I said I am glad gaston survived it would be...

Me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston ... notice, no S on the end of the verb.


I can speak a little spanish, after taking my first year of that language this past year.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566
1390. hurristat 02:13 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ok sorry.


Sorry if it came off a bit harsh, it's been a long day -- I only meant to help :D


Also, just the way you conjugate verbs in spanish.. the "____-s" ending on the verbs means YOU.
So in fact I said I was glad he survived Gaston.

If I said I am glad gaston survived it would be...

Me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston ... notice, no S on the end of the verb.


Si, te entiendo. "me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston" = I am happy that Gaston survives. Correct?

Yay for spanglish/espangles :D
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1391. HurricaneGeek 02:14 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
They just talk with half their words. Especially in the RD, the letter S is virtually non existent! (Even in the middle of words.) lol
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1392. bluenosedave 02:15 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting ElvisVomDrachenbrau:
Hi everyone!
First post for me so be gentle!
I live in Halifax and I had been keeping a close eye on Earl as it approached. I was here for Juan as well and although this wasn't as bad, it wasn't pleasant. We didn't lose power, though many have including the houses on the next street behind us. Took a drive through peninsular Halifax this afternoon and it was quite similar to the aftermath of Juan with many of the older trees down.

EVD


Sorry to hear my old home town took it on the chin again. Here in Yarmouth we got off lightly; didn't even lose power and I haven't seen any damage. Considering we were in the cross-hairs for several days, we were lucky.
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1393. Neapolitan 02:15 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
As of now, who has more ACE Bonnie or Gaston?


They're tied, with 0.3675 apiece. They both last roughly 18 hours, both with minimal 35 knot winds the entire time.
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1394. hurristat 02:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
They just talk with half their words. Especially in the RD, the letter S is virtually non existent! (Even in the middle of words.) lol


Los puertorriquenos hablan "epanol"

jajaja
Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302
1395. HurricaneGeek 02:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting kingzfan104:


thats not true at all. the we form of verbs also ends in s and so does the we form in Spain as well.


true true true.
we is -amos -emos or imos

and vosotros is something like eis and ais I guess but we don't use that too often. Only to say things like
Como estas?
bien y vos?

but you are right 100% =)
Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1396. pottery 02:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Greetings all.
I see that Gaston is still there, but barely.
Though the NHC has him at a high chance of development.
In any case, he continues to move WNW, enough to miss the Islands initially I think.
But I begin to wonder if he will ever truly live up to his billing?
Needs to dump the dry air, and find more convection....
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1397. Orcasystems 02:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting bluenosedave:


Halifax lost a LOT of trees in Juan, but many were salvaged for lumber. In Point Pleasant Park (which looked like a bomb hit it afterwards) some were made into park benches.


Your still not forgiven for the loss of Chris Brothers
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1398. stormwatcherCI 02:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    


Early cycle dynamic models

Early cycle statistical models
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1399. hurristat 02:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah XD


At least that's what works for me. :P
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1400. luigi18 02:17 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


There is a speck of convection to the SW of the center LOL! XD
And if you mean that you're happy Gaston is a live how dare you! :P If you mean that you're happy cause I survived Earl, well yes thank you! XD

Gaston ven y acaba de tumbar la luz de verdad aque no te atrevex?
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1401. JLPR2 02:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010    
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Ok sorry.

Also, just the way you conjugate verbs in spanish.. the "____-s" ending on the verbs means YOU.
So in fact I said I was glad he survived Gaston.

If I said I am glad gaston survived it would be...

Me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston ... notice, no S on the end of the verb.


Not really:
What would make the phrase sound like hurrisat understood it would be a comma after sobreviviera.
Making the verb plural or singular doesn't change its meaning.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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