Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1401. JLPR2 02:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HurricaneGeek: Ok sorry. Also, just the way you conjugate verbs in spanish.. the "____-s" ending on the verbs means YOU. So in fact I said I was glad he survived Gaston. If I said I am glad gaston survived it would be... Me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston ... notice, no S on the end of the verb. Not really: What would make the phrase sound like hurrisat understood it would be a comma after sobreviviera. Making the verb plural or singular doesn't change its meaning. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1403. houstongator 02:18 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp: It was a nightmare for those stuck in that traffic. I had to stay behind because of my job. My wife and our 5 year old daughter and 1 year old boy lived on bread and water for 36 hours. They were following my mother-in-law in her car. We only had two cell phone chargers, one for the house and one for the car. My wife left the one for the car with me thinking that once she got to Trinity in a couple of hours she could charge her phone there. Wrong! I went 32 hours without hearing from her, and the meantime, I'm watching this chaos on the news wondering if my family was alright. I spent 36 hours on a normally 12 hour trip to my parents with my wife, daughter and two dogs. I'll bet you have two car chargers now. Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 109

1404. HurricaneGeek 02:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: Sorry if it came off a bit harsh, it's been a long day -- I only meant to help :D Si, te entiendo. "me alegro de que sobreviviera gaston" = I am happy that Gaston survives. Correct? Yay for spanglish/espangles :D jajaja it's all cool. that he SURVIVED, yes. I am glad he SURVIVES .. me alegro de que sobreviva (present) if you want to know know WU mail me I'd be happy to help but weather blog, jaja =) Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1406. JLPR2 02:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting luigi18: Gaston ven y acaba de tumbar la luz de verdad aque no te atrevex? Shh! XD I'm happy with my computer on, modem working, AC and freezer on, so shh! XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1407. MiamiHurricanes09 02:19 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Special Blog Update Special Late Night Update: Ex-Gaston Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1408. taco2me61 02:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Hi everybody well I'm in Clearwater FL tonight on my way to Key West for a few days.... I see we have something in the Gulf that might form and go towards Mexico/Texas area.... And all eyes on what will Gaston or soon to be Gaston will Do.... Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2788

1409. hurristat 02:20 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HurricaneGeek: jajaja it's all cool. that he SURVIVED, yes. I am glad he SURVIVES .. me alegro de que sobreviva (present) if you want to know know WU mail me I'd be happy to help but weather blog, jaja =) Oops, I missed the "iera" part. facepalms Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1411. Orcasystems 02:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Gastown does not look dead Pottery AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

1413. EricSFL 02:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: Estoy aprendiendo espanol castillano, y vosotros es como "y'all" en ingles. -ais, -eis, y -is en el presente indicativo. Rosetta Stone? lol Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

1415. MiamiHurricanes09 02:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Thanks MH09 that was enlightening. Lol, no problem. Although it isn't "late night", it makes the title sound cool so I just wrote it in there. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1416. JLPR2 02:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting HurricaneGeek: sabes que? tienes razon yo no hubiera dicho nada. a partir de esete mometo utilizaré mis comas y gramatica.... mejor , , , =) XD It gets confusing when we enter the verb past and present tense and the grammatical rules. XD But I didn't get it, Gaston hasn't come around here. :\ Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1417. hurristat 02:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting EricSFL: Rosetta Stone? lol Actually, no, IB Spanish. Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1418. wunderkidcayman 02:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
for anyone that is clueless with 99L 09/04/2010 09:14PM 991 invest_DEACTIVATE_al992010.ren Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

1419. AllBoardedUp 02:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting houstongator: I spent 36 hours on a normally 12 hour trip to my parents with my wife, daughter and two dogs. I'll bet you have two car chargers now. Yes I do, actually 3 in all. Two car chargers and one for the house. I couldn't imagine being in a car that long with 2 dogs. I hope they weren't Great Danes! Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

1420. Cantu5977 02:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
00z NAM is pretty animated on developing the BOC low. Member Since: 9 mai 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 84

1421. HurricaneGeek 02:24 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: XD It gets confusing when we enter the verb past and present tense and the grammatical rules. XD But I didn't get it, Gaston hasn't come around here. :\ WOWOWOWOW! I ment to say EARL in the first place... dang, I am dumb. jeeeeez Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1422. pottery 02:25 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Gastown does not look dead Pottery AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Yeah! Not dead, but badly wounded. Needs to find some moisture. Everything else is favourable. I see his track is now in agreement with mine.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

1423. PcolaDan 02:25 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting EricSFL: Rosetta Stone? lol Well that wouldn't help. It only has two Egyptian and one Greek language on it. I know, I've seen it. :P Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1424. HurricaneGeek 02:25 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I just realized that all this would have been clear if I had said what I ment but I typed it wrong. I meant to say EARL when I said GASTON on accident. wow I am sorry. Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1425. hu2007 02:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
i think gaston de humeda is opening in too a tropical wave, i d,ont see as much rotation as earlier,see shockwave image loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ir2.html Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1426. JLPR2 02:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: Estoy aprendiendo espanol castellano, y vosotros es como "y'all" en ingles. -ais, -eis, y -is en el presente indicativo. Yep, another word in Spanish for that would be ustedes, the original Spanish is awesome, maybe I'll take a trip to Spain one of these days, waaaayyyy in the future. XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1427. hu2007 02:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Link Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1428. kmanislander 02:26 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: Yeah! Not dead, but badly wounded. Needs to find some moisture. Everything else is favourable. I see his track is now in agreement with mine.... Gaston Part 3 Coming to a screen near you. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

1429. Orcasystems 02:27 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: Yeah! Not dead, but badly wounded. Needs to find some moisture. Everything else is favourable. I see his track is now in agreement with mine.... Yes, I see none of his tracks are going over your house... that being said... there is a small blob out there tracking your way... remember what happened last time. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

1430. MiamiHurricanes09 02:27 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Gaston Part 3 Coming to a screen near you. Isn't this part 4 already? LOL. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1432. pottery 02:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Gaston Part 3 Coming to a screen near you. That's too obscure for me Kman. LOL What's your current thinking? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

1433. kmanislander 02:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Isn't this part 4 already? LOL. I've lost track to tell you the truth LOL Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

1434. HurricaneGeek 02:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Looks like Gaston is popping convection. I say TD at 5 pm mañana. Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1435. kmanislander 02:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: That's too obscure for me Kman. LOL What's your current thinking? TD by 60 W Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

1436. JLPR2 02:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Gaston, weaker: AL, 09, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 166N, 466W, 30, 1007, LO AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1437. PRweathercenter 02:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Good evening !! Gaston's not looking to great right now, i'm starting to wonder if it will ever develop Member Since: 21 juillet 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 920

1439. MiamiHurricanes09 02:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I've lost track to tell you the truth LOL LOL! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1440. Orcasystems 02:31 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: That's too obscure for me Kman. LOL What's your current thinking? Can't wait to see what Kman thinks... Its coming back... more models are showing it developing now... Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

1441. hurristat 02:31 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: That's too obscure for me Kman. LOL What's your current thinking? Long time, no see! How are you doing? Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1442. JRRP 02:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I've lost track to tell you the truth LOL jajajaja Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

1443. bluenosedave 02:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Your still not forgiven for the loss of Chris Brothers Mmmmm. Chris Brothers. World's finest pepperoni. What happened, did ya lose the link I sent ya a couple of years ago? Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 329

1444. JLPR2 02:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: Yeah, I know about ustedes, pero solamente los espanoles usan vosotros y no lo uso. Uh, whoops that was supposed to be entirely in english. True. And LOL for the second part. XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7528

1445. pottery 02:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: TD by 60 W OK. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

1447. MiamiHurricanes09 02:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting kmanislander: TD by 60 W Ok, so it has 793 miles to become TD Gaston 5.0...I think. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1448. hurristat 02:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: True. And LOL for the second part. XD psst (it's because they're lame and like making things more complicated) Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1449. kmanislander 02:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Can't wait to see what Kman thinks... Its coming back... more models are showing it developing now... I still believe Gaston will get his act together but as I have been saying probably not before 55 to 63 W Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

1450. Orcasystems 02:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting bluenosedave: Mmmmm. Chris Brothers. World's finest pepperoni. What happened, did ya lose the link I sent ya a couple of years ago? They got bought out :( Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

1451. tropicfreak 02:35 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: wow 996 mb at 48 hrs aiming at me again Not to mention i see gaston coming into the picture, approaching the lessler antillies. Isn't 996 mb equivalent to a moderate to strong TS? Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

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