Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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101. washingtonian115 17:12 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting xcool: gfs shows Gaston hit fl the in gom .maker 2 time . Remember how they showed Fiona going into the florida straits,and then gulf as a intense system.Look what happened. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

102. Stormchaser2007 17:12 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Been collecting images of the tropics throughout the whole season. Check it out. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

103. xcool 17:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
trend continues Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

104. marmark 17:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Been collecting images of the tropics throughout the whole season. Check it out. cool. Thanks for sharing. Member Since: 1 février 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 238

105. MiamiHurricanes09 17:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting breald: What does that mean? Thanks Levi can explain it better than I can, but, an isobar is a line drawn on surface analysis graphs (for example) joining equal atmospheric pressure. The lower the pressure the more prone a surface low is to develop. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

106. pottery 17:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Pretty nasty weather then. LOL, INvisible satellite imagery is useless, so here is the infrared image...some intense thunderstorms over SW Trindad. Seen. Thanks. And coming in fast from over the Mainland. Is moving a little to the north at the moment. But the west is black and looming. If I go away, it's the flashes that did it... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

107. PrivateIdaho 17:14 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Idaho. Shows my area even better...who are the 'canes playing? Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

108. xcool 17:14 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
washingtonian115 this totally difference Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

109. want2lrn 17:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: WOW. This is pretty crazy. Check out where the 1012mb isobar is located across the entire Atlantic...up near 20N. Also look at the Caribbean sea how it's under a the 1010mb isobar. From a newbie...what does that tell you miami? Member Since: 28 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

112. Stormchaser2007 17:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
, Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

113. xcool 17:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

114. MiamiHurricanes09 17:17 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Been collecting images of the tropics throughout the whole season. Check it out. Wow, awesome, thanks! I bookmarked it. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

116. PrivateIdaho 17:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: gators Gators are playing Miami...(OH) Lol! Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

119. pottery 17:19 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Greetings, StormW. Your thoughts on Gaston's potential track would be appreciated. Thanks.. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

120. PrivateIdaho 17:20 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: A little reminder from the good folks at FEMA: Live in Tennessee? Having trouble spelling it? Well, hurricanes affect inland States: NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Tennessee is far from any seashore, but that doesn't mean residents can afford to relax during hurricane season. Some of the most dangerous and damaging floods after a hurricane occur hundreds of miles from the coast. As hurricanes weaken to tropical storms and move inland, rapid, massive rainfall can cause flash flooding that might last for days. A tropical storm can produce more rain than a Category 5 hurricane. The National Weather Service is predicting a strong Atlantic hurricane season for 2010, with as many as six storms expected to reach at least Category 3 strength. Hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30, peaking from late August through October. “Not only is September often an intense time for hurricanes, it's also National Preparedness Month,” says Gracia Szczech, the federal official coordinating recovery work in response to the May flooding in Tennessee. “With two significant floods in Tennessee already this year, residents should be ready to respond if inland tropical weather brings damaging winds or flooding.” West and Middle Tennessee are 300-400 miles from the Gulf of Mexico, while parts of East Tennessee are within 250 miles of the Atlantic Ocean. Over the years, that has proved to be close enough to mean trouble. •2008 – Winds from Hurricane Ike felled a tree on a Nashville-area golf course, killing two men. •2003-04 – Tropical Storm Bill and the remnants of Hurricane Ivan the following year dumped several inches of rain on East Tennessee. •1995 – Hurricane Opal caused $2 million in damage in the Volunteer State, half of that in the Chattanooga area. Rainfall in Middle and East Tennessee measured 3 or more inches. •1977 – A dissipating Hurricane Babe drenched Chattanooga, which recorded almost four times its normal rainfall for the month. •1940 – The Georgia-South Carolina Hurricane of 1940 sparked deadly, destructive flash flooding in the Southeast, including much of Tennessee. I'm Doom Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

122. GTcooliebai 17:20 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: Gators are playing Miami...(OH) Lol! Hey did you guys know that was Ben Rothelesberger's team a couple yrs. ago. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

123. washingtonian115 17:20 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Mid level Upper level Then why is Gaston having a hard time from dry air? Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10655

124. MiamiHurricanes09 17:20 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
From Stormchaser2007's Photobucket account. This is an absolutely amazing picture of Earl...wow. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

125. JBirdFireMedic 17:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Afternoon StormW Member Since: 10 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

127. moonlightcowboy 17:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Mid level Upper level That's even better! Did I pull a low? ;P Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28118

128. Stormchaser2007 17:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Wow, awesome, thanks! I bookmarked it. No problem. My original album goes all the way back to 2008. Has pretty much everything from winter storms to hurricanes. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

129. pottery 17:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: I'm Doom My thoughts are with you, at this difficult time. heheheh Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

130. Vero1 17:22 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting washingtonian115: Then why is Gaston having a hard time from dry air? It is just sitting there Fishing. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

132. Levi32 17:23 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting breald: What does that mean? Thanks MH09 gave a pretty good explanation. The GFS is basically showing very below-normal pressures across the tropical Atlantic, indicating an abnormal buildup of heat that is rising and lowering the surface air pressure. This is favorable for more tropical activity. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

133. GTcooliebai 17:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 118: Yeah well, UF started out terrible in the first quarter. Miami-OH blew their only opportunity to win this game, as they needed to get a good 10 to 17 points while Florida was playing so bad to stand a chance. Now that Florida has started to execute half decently, Miami-OH can't even stay on the same field. Are you watching the game, miami's going in for a score. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5185

135. DDR 17:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Hey pottery Did you hear the thunder last week? It was loud and continuous,sounded like a jet engine. Member Since: 27 avril 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

136. PrivateIdaho 17:24 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: My thoughts are with you, at this difficult time. heheheh I see convection associated with low level circulation over the Great Salt Lake..got to go put gas in the car and buy a generator..bbl. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

138. Stormchaser2007 17:25 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Just uploaded some new stuff. Check it out. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

140. DDR 17:26 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Whats going on in Idaho? Member Since: 27 avril 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

141. PrivateIdaho 17:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai: Are you watching the game, miami's going in for a score. Miami had to settle for a FG...My wife went to UF so I'm contractually obligated to root for them (sigh). Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

143. Halyn 17:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Been collecting images of the tropics throughout the whole season. Check it out. Very nice, Stormchaser .. :) Member Since: 7 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98

145. MiamiHurricanes09 17:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

146. pottery 17:28 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting DDR: Hey pottery Did you hear the thunder last week? It was loud and continuous,sounded like a jet engine. Hi DDR... that's what it sounds like RIGHT NOW here! Nice rain falling. I have to leave here at 3 to go up to that Development above Paramin (over on the coast side). Duval? I hope this blows over by then.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

147. 7544 17:29 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Sure, pottery. Right now, I haven't changed my thinking...west, and will either cross the northern most extreme Leewards, or could nudge just south of west, and enter the Caribbean just at a latitude south of Puerto Rico (17N?). Once there, a weakness in the ridge should tug him north for a short term...after that, hard to tell at this point in time if the ridge will build back and turn him W-WNW again. i know its early in the game but that doesnt sound good for fla at this time thank you for the early run storm w Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

148. dipchip 17:29 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Gaston is currently at about 47 w log. If Gaston moves along 17 n lat on avg. it is 2467 N miles to 90 west log south of NO LA. At 10 Knts avg speed that is 10.28 days travel time. At 15 knts avg that is 6.85 days. Member Since: 20 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

149. pottery 17:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Sure, pottery. Right now, I haven't changed my thinking...west, and will either cross the northern most extreme Leewards, or could nudge just south of west, and enter the Caribbean just at a latitude south of Puerto Rico (17N?). Once there, a weakness in the ridge should tug him north for a short term...after that, hard to tell at this point in time if the ridge will build back and turn him W-WNW again. Appreciate that. Thanks. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

150. kimoskee 17:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Does anyone know if Gaston got the memo? The one that said he's suppose to die and go away. Just checking 'cause he seems determined to hang in there. Member Since: 17 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

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