Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1501. JLPR2 02:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Yeah, I can read it pretty good, but I can't conjugate worth a diddly. But I can order pizza, chinese and beer on the phone and have it delivered successfully, so SCORE! I'm fluent in Spanish! Just don't confuse me with the facts or grammar. I can talk to the Mexicans. They look at me like I'm retarded but they understand (mostly), anticipating responses helps. But Mexicans won't help you out. They only know one way of saying something and they will just keep saying the same thing over and over and I still don't understand what they are saying. I still don't know how to say egg rolls to a Mexican chinese cook! It's not huevos rollos, I learned that. This is the best school, throw you in the deep end. I've lost a lot of weight from not eating. LOL Can't help you there, I have no idea. XD I would like to see a Italian looking at me funny after i take the class in my 4th year LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1503. WeatherNerdPR 02:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Special Blog Update Special Late Night Update: Ex-Gaston Yay! I love special updates. Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1504. caneswatch 02:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Am I just tired, or did that not make sense? That made no sense with me at all. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1505. pottery 02:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening: I would put the percentages of Gaston getting named once again is around 80% in the next 48 hours. Given that he should be in a low shear environment as he passes 50w. I agree with the NHC. Unsure about the BOC area, but I guess the NHC thinks 40%, so it sounds good. Also, Gaston is quickly approaching 85-86 degree water temps....... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1506. txraysfan 02:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TXnovice: Are you in Baytown? I'm south of Houston. Just curious. Another Texan here-how south of houston are you? Close to Port O'Connor here Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1507. TXnovice 02:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Okay, now it makes more sense. I was confused for a second because what I was looking at was a little different than anything headed my general direction (at least for the moment). You, on the other hand, might get a little rain in the next couple of days! Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1508. xcool 02:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
guess meaning no .rob Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1511. pottery 02:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Skole! Salud!! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1512. JLPR2 02:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: back in a while gonna get a wendy's mmmmm been there, done that XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1513. TXnovice 02:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Hi! I'm in Pearland. Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1515. RickWPB 02:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Gaston may not be dead yet, but it sure looks like it's losing it's circulation. In the last 3 or 4 frames looks like an open wave. IR Floater Member Since: 26 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 297

1516. PRweathercenter 02:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Blog Update Puerto Rico Gaston update! Member Since: 21 juillet 2010 Posts: 58 Comments: 916

1519. flsky 02:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Skole! Skoal Member Since: 24 octobre 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276

1520. txraysfan 02:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TXnovice: Hi! I'm in Pearland. Well, anything less than 2-3 hours by car in texas is close! lol-Brother lives up around houston-works for HCSO-he said it was nuts up there with traffic during Rita Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1521. hu2007 02:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Guys stop it XD Están cucándolo. :\| maybe you are right :o! xD Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1522. PRweathercenter 02:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RickWPB: Gaston may not be dead yet, but it sure looks like it's losing it's circulation. In the last 3 or 4 frames looks like an open wave. IR Floater I agree, i don't think it will develop at all for at least the next 72hours Member Since: 21 juillet 2010 Posts: 58 Comments: 916

1523. caneswatch 02:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: It's a time delay thing. Talking to yourself actually helps. GN. Can you tell us what it means? Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1525. PRweathercenter 02:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Later Kman! I'm heading out too. Good night everyone! I wonder what surprises ex-Gaston will do overnight...? It might just stay an open wave, will see if I'm wrong Member Since: 21 juillet 2010 Posts: 58 Comments: 916

1526. pottery 02:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting flsky: Skoal hic!! slow down guys, I am having trouble keeping up. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1527. TXnovice 02:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I was 7 months pregnant when we evacuated for Rita. It took 23 hours and 45 minutes to get from here to Dallas (usually a 4 hour trip). It was pretty awful. I would do it again if presented with the same circumstances. Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1528. pottery 02:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Humor circuit is malfunctioning here. Glad to know it's not just me.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1529. hunkerdown 02:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Isn't this part 4 already? LOL. isn't the next one in 3D ? Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

1531. txraysfan 02:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TXnovice: I was 7 months pregnant when we evacuated for Rita. It took 23 hours and 45 minutes to get from here to Dallas (usually a 4 hour trip). It was pretty awful. I would do it again if presented with the same circumstances. OMG! That had to have been a miserable trip. Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1532. caneswatch 03:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: what happens when you take the F out of way? IDK, can you just tell us please? Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1533. hunkerdown 03:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter: Good evening !! Gaston's not looking to great right now, i'm starting to wonder if it will ever develop there is that patience issue that people seem to lack...they want everything and the want it now Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

1534. xcool 03:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
btwntx08 hold uppp Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1535. pottery 03:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: what happens when you take the F out of way? please tell me. otherwise this is going to keep me up all dam night. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1538. PSLFLCaneVet 03:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: yeah. football. Gastone weak, Earl gone. Maybe back for the GFS. I need more fast pace here....more fun. LOL, back from a repeated restart. Mozilla here. Haven't had that happen before. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1539. MiamiHurricanes09 03:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter: It might just stay an open wave, will see if I'm wrong Stay an open wave? It isn't an open wave currently. Look on shortwave, the surface circulation is still closed and well-defined. Upper level conditions are favorable as well (and should remain that way), like I said in my blog, the only impediment on development is the dry air which should slowly diminish as ex-Gaston continues westward. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1540. TXnovice 03:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
There aren't words strong enough to describe it. I can still close my eyes and see some of the sights on the side of the road. It isn't like the aftermath of a hurricane (I saw lots from Gustav and then Ike-long story), but the red-faced screaming babies, cars bumping into each other because their feet slipped off the gas pedals (and no one was really bothered by it), it was strange. I won't forget it. Not to mention that no food or water for 12 hours is not fun for a pregnant lady. It made me a little cranky (my husband would use stronger words). Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1541. hunkerdown 03:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Can't wait to see what Kman thinks... Its coming back... more models are showing it developing now... if the models are showing it there ya go, lord knows they have been spot on this year...so what storm are we on, Rho ? Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

1542. Bielle 03:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I think the e is silent. I like that; it's similar to the silent "gh" in "banana". Member Since: 18 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1543. txraysfan 03:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TXnovice: There aren't words strong enough to describe it. I can still close my eyes and see some of the sights on the side of the road. It isn't like the aftermath of a hurricane (I saw lots from Gustav and then Ike-long story), but the red-faced screaming babies, cars bumping into each other because their feet slipped off the gas pedals (and no one was really bothered by it), it was strange. I won't forget it. Not to mention that no food or water for 12 hours is not fun for a pregnant lady. It made me a little cranky (my husband would use stronger words). When I was pregnant, would have been more worried about the bathroom! Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1544. hurristat 03:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: Has'nt been a problem at all. Love it! After the dry-season we had, the rain is still welcomed. (check me on this, in December LOL) I will, mark my words :D Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1545. caneswatch 03:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: There ain't no F in way! Yeah, this made no sense to me. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1546. TXnovice 03:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
13 hours for that because I refused to squat on the side of the road. I probably shouldn't have been that stubborn. I was VERY uncomfortable! Member Since: 29 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80

1547. spathy 03:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: what happens when you take the F out of way? You are no longer in the ------ way? Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

1549. aquak9 03:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I'da lost sleep too. Glad you cleared that up, 3K. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

1550. AllBoardedUp 03:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TXnovice: There aren't words strong enough to describe it. I can still close my eyes and see some of the sights on the side of the road. It isn't like the aftermath of a hurricane (I saw lots from Gustav and then Ike-long story), but the red-faced screaming babies, cars bumping into each other because their feet slipped off the gas pedals (and no one was really bothered by it), it was strange. I won't forget it. Not to mention that no food or water for 12 hours is not fun for a pregnant lady. It made me a little cranky (my husband would use stronger words). An elderly woman from my hometown died in her car while in traffic. If I remember, more people died in the evacuation than from the storm. Don't forget 23 on that bus in Dallas. Member Since: 25 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

1551. pottery 03:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: There ain't no F in way! Ah!! I would normally have figured that one out. Maybe. But I just recently returned from a party, and there was quite a deal of Inapropriate Behavior. (I am glad to say) So my brain is having some small difficulties right now... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

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