Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

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1651. gordydunnot 03:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
i could swear this was a tropical blog but I am getting so confused I may need a shrink well i might need it a little more now anyways.Hay KKK most people on the coast are one or two steps a head of those lurking deep within the east coast. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1652. RuBRNded 03:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Would it be better if we posted in hyroglifics? crayon is good Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1653. caneswatch 03:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Well, I guess you're right, if their not Latino, Black, Islanders or Jewish, they must be Rednecks. Right? Did I leave anyone out? Asians Russians? Bunch of them there now. Irish-Scottish-Danish-German-Native American-Dutch right here. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1655. Grothar 03:43 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Would it be better if we posted in hyroglifics? Well, that is spelled hieroglyphics, and yes, it would probably make more sense. (I knew you would have a kind comment) LOL Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1656. JLPR2 03:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I feel alone after posting the ASCAT pass, LOL! No tropics talk anywhere. :S Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1657. txraysfan 03:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Well my new home is mobile so that means so am I before any storm now. Lol. Well the ones we know are coming. Humberto was like riding a storm out inside a collapsing soda can. My poor dog still has a nervous breakdown when a rain drop hits the house. I cut her some slack though. I know what it sounded like to us can't imagine what she heard. Do they make xanax for dogs? Check with vet-I do believe they have something like that for dogs Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1659. xcool 03:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
hmm pizza Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1660. caneswatch 03:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Strange little blog tonight. I know my English is not always that good, but I have no idea what any of are talking about. Hope it makes sense to you. YO, Snake Sorry, I am the reason the blog is like this lol Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1661. PSLFLCaneVet 03:45 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Strange little blog tonight. I know my English is not always that good, but I have no idea what any of are talking about. Hope it makes sense to you. YO, Snake Wow, no offense, but I thouhgt you were well-versed in English. You've been extremely competent Quoting DestinJeff: Would it be better if we posted in hyroglifics? Wow, now I really am rolling on the floor. Audacity rules! Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1662. hurristat 03:45 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: I feel alone after posting the ASCAT pass, LOL! No tropics talk anywhere. :S You can thank yours truly for that second part -- I started talking about spanish, and then everything went :P Member Since: 15 octobre 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2302

1663. stillwaiting 03:45 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Evening fellow wunderbloggers! !!,earls nhc cone looks like a quote cartoon balloon,lol.......interesting convection begining in the central gom,could be the begining of some homebrew imo Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1664. Grothar 03:45 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: I feel alone after posting the ASCAT pass, LOL! No tropics talk anywhere. :S If you want to talk about the tropics, ever think of going to a weather blog? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1666. pottery 03:46 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Hello Gro! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1667. caneswatch 03:46 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Yeah. Reminds me of when I lived in Europe. Would have been great, except for all the damn foreigners! Where did you stay in Europe? Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1670. txraysfan 03:46 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
You ever stop at Prasek's on the way to Houston? Have the best ham & cheese rolls-Made some of those too. Hubby says they taste better than theirs-cause he can just take em out of the pan! lol Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1671. RuBRNded 03:46 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: I feel alone after posting the ASCAT pass, LOL! No tropics talk anywhere. :S My position on the discussions are that many have real big coke bottle glasses here and focus on the now and not the real world......... Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1672. RuBRNded 03:47 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: meant to be funny by saying "hydroglifics" d got left out, made me look stoopid. UR all wet Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1674. Grothar 03:47 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Sorry, I am the reason the blog is like this lol Should have known you were involved somehow. What did you start tonight to divert the tropical discussion? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1676. txraysfan 03:47 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Have you looked at boc? Seems like it has really been poppin! Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1677. aislinnpaps 03:47 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Well my new home is mobile so that means so am I before any storm now. Lol. Well the ones we know are coming. Humberto was like riding a storm out inside a collapsing soda can. My poor dog still has a nervous breakdown when a rain drop hits the house. I cut her some slack though. I know what it sounded like to us can't imagine what she heard. Do they make xanax for dogs? Yes, they do. Many people use Rescue Remedy for their dogs. It works for many of them. Just do a google search. Member Since: 22 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1678. pottery 03:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: If you want to talk about the tropics, ever think of going to a weather blog? heheheheh Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703

1679. JLPR2 03:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: If you want to talk about the tropics, ever think of going to a weather blog? scratches head confused while scrolling to the top of the page and seeing the title but...but ah... nevermind XD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1681. Grothar 03:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Germany. Shout aus, Gro! Ja wohl! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1682. wunderkidcayman 03:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
thank you JLPR2 I was trying to find that Ascat pass I knew it wasn't open Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5381

1683. will40 03:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: gfs about to begin? kts out to 36 hrs nuttin on it yet Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1686. JLPR2 03:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: You can thank yours truly for that second part -- I started talking about spanish, and then everything went :P I'm not exactly innocent either. :S Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

1687. xcool 03:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1688. stillwaiting 03:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Didn't you ever see the movie "Old school"? ...,yea,fionas going streaking!!!,wanna come????,lol Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1689. PSLFLCaneVet 03:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: That's funny, leave out the German and the Danish and thats me! A mutt! A mutt here too. Swedish, Norwegian and German. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12405

1690. Grothar 03:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: Hello Gro! Hey, pot! You're supposed to keep the blog in line. Slipping in your old age, eh? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1692. RuBRNded 03:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
deutschland ist wunderful Lived in ludwigshaughfin 2 years. Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1693. AtHomeInTX 03:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting txraysfan: Check with vet-I do believe they have something like that for dogs Ok thanks. I don't think I can afford that much therapy for her. It's been 3 years! Lol. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3873

1694. hu2007 03:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Open? Nah! well is look like on the satellite that was opening up in too a wave,but on think for sure is that is not strengthening but staying weak! Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1695. RTLSNK (Mod) 03:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Strange little blog tonight. I know my English is not always that good, but I have no idea what any of are talking about. Hope it makes sense to you. YO, Snake YO my friend, the topic tonight is Gaston, cretins, rednecks, and someone called WooHoo girls, not that I would know anything about such people myself personally you understand. Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15150

1696. Grothar 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: A mutt here too. Swedish, Norwegian and German. Hey, that's my line! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19491

1697. aislinnpaps 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: I was in Darmstadt We were in Bad Kissingen and Bimbach. I was told I spoke German with a Spanish accent. Though there were days I was using all three in one sentence. Member Since: 22 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1699. RuBRNded 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: part of that comment too close to looking like another word altogether, giving the entire thing new meaning. Opps Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1700. caneswatch 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Should have known you were involved somehow. What did you start tonight to divert the tropical discussion? KanKun gave me a riddle and I told him I couldn't figure it out because I was watching football and sat next to a huge group of rednecks for dinner. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1701. caneswatch 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Should have known you were involved somehow. What did you start tonight to divert the tropical discussion? KanKun gave me a riddle and I told him I couldn't figure it out because I was watching football and sat next to a huge group of rednecks for dinner. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

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