Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

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1701. caneswatch 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Should have known you were involved somehow. What did you start tonight to divert the tropical discussion? KanKun gave me a riddle and I told him I couldn't figure it out because I was watching football and sat next to a huge group of rednecks for dinner. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1702. hu2007 03:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Open? Nah! well is look like on the satellite that was opening up in too a wave,but on think for sure is that is not strengthening but staying weak! Member Since: 6 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 195

1703. xcool 03:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1705. Grothar 03:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RTLSNK: YO my friend, the topic tonight is Gaston, cretins, rednecks, and someone called WooHoo girls, not that I would know anything about such people myself personally you understand. Sure, I'll believe that line anyday. (Big LOL) Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1706. gordydunnot 03:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Did you'll all miss the history of the Normans , Vikings and the Romans no such thing as a pure breed. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1707. TexasHurricane 03:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
interesting..... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1709. AtHomeInTX 03:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: Yes, they do. Many people use Rescue Remedy for their dogs. It works for many of them. Just do a google search. Oh ok cool. Thanks. :) Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3887

1711. RuBRNded 03:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Did you'll all miss the history of the Normans , Vikings and the Romans no such thing as a pure breed. It was "politically almost correct" all fun fun fun, gene pool dispersant! Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1713. Grothar 03:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Just out of curiosity, who here speaks other languages, other than the attempted English now and then? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1715. RTLSNK (Mod) 03:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hurristat: I never really got used to Orca's -- he's a nice guy, but it was really awkward for me there. Yes, I understand, the average age of the posters there is 50 plus. :) Some of us are on the 60 plus end of course. Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15202

1716. pottery 03:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RuBRNded: My position on the discussions are that many have real big coke bottle glasses here and focus on the now and not the real world......... sounds OK to me, actually. We all need a break from looking at spurious models that change every couple of hours. Plus, it's Saturday night. And there aint a storm threatening anyone, anywhere. Give Praise........ Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1718. Hurricanes101 03:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
00Z GFS does not look to develop the BOC or ex-Gaston oh well back to boring again lol Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1720. 954FtLCane 03:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just out of curiosity, who here speaks other languages, other than the attempted English now and then? Yo hablo espanol... but living in so Fla you know its a must... Member Since: 30 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1464

1722. aislinnpaps 03:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: Oh ok cool. Thanks. :) No problem. I can probably answer dog questions the way you guys can do tropic ones. Member Since: 22 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1723. MrstormX 03:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Those seas look turbulent... Member Since: 27 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

1724. stillwaiting 03:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: actually in the boc my friend ......we shall see :) Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1725. Grothar 03:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: It was a subtle hijack, before we knew it we were all in the weeds. It was him. He did it. I get you. Canes can do that well. j/k Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1727. xcool 03:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1728. RuBRNded 03:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: You down with OPPs? yeah, you know me. Not to be a downer or a whiner or some jack arse looking for a hug, but my Mom just past away and for the last two years you have cracked me the F up bro. So, to be a wise ass tonight is better than being a dumb ass, good night all. and "opps" Member Since: 29 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1730. xcool 03:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
hurricane season dead and boringlol Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1731. PSLFLCaneVet 03:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Ja wohl! I still remember some of the 3 years of German I had in primary school. You're not fooling me Grothar. Have a nice night. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1732. Grothar 03:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Hey, Gro.... You know what happens when you take the F out of way? Of course I do. Being using that line most of my life. LOL Doesn't work much, though. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1733. MiamiHurricanes09 03:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: 00Z GFS does not look to develop the BOC or ex-Gaston oh well back to boring again lol LOL! Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1736. aislinnpaps 04:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting 954FtLCane: Yo hablo espanol... but living in so Fla you know its a must... I speak enough Spanish to get by and used to speak German pretty well, but haven't used it in a while. I was there last year and the year before, understood more than I could remember how to say. Am going back in early June again, though may be the last time. Member Since: 22 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

1737. AtHomeInTX 04:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just out of curiosity, who here speaks other languages, other than the attempted English now and then? Hey! I was an English major one semester! I thought I was a criminal justice major? But no I was told the English department had my "FOLDER" therefore I was an English major. Lol. Btw hi Grothar. I changed my name from Homelesswanderer. If you remember me. :) Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3887

1739. txraysfan 04:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: actually the td is still there in the boc will Was looking at boc-wow did some stuff build on the e-ne side! Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1740. PSLFLCaneVet 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Hey, Gro.... You know what happens when you take the F out of way? Yeah, DJ, you take all the fun out of things. (should I smirk or wink?) Hmmmm... Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1741. xcool 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
F4PHANTOM guess so. Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1742. moonlightcowboy 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Gaston moving gradually into slightly warmer waters. Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28121

1743. will40 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting btwntx08: actually the td is still there in the boc will yea a 1011 low Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1744. Grothar 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: I still remember some of the 3 years of German I had in primary school. You're not fooling me Grothar. Have a nice night. No, really interested. I was educated mostly in Germany and Norway and Switzerland. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1745. pottery 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting MrstormX: Those seas look turbulent... which seas?? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1746. xcool 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
so dead Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

1747. caneswatch 04:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just out of curiosity, who here speaks other languages, other than the attempted English now and then? Se habla espanol. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1750. Grothar 04:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Se habla espanol. oui Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

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