Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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1901. tornadodude 04:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: Whas hapn'n t-dude!!!!,you still gonna chase one of these tc's this year???? I would love to! but also I dont want any to make landfall, so :p Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

1902. will40 04:54 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
i think the last one came off a little higher lat Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1903. TexasHurricane 04:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1904. will40 04:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Hi Matt Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1906. JLPR2 04:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: At my age, all I do is wait. All I have is patience. LOL good for you XD My patience level is this big: '.' :\| I think I have pressed the F5 button like 10 times to see if the image changes on the SSD floater LOL. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

1907. Grothar 04:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Goes 15 sees ex-Gaston, but I need a magnifying glass LOL! Just hold the CTRL and shift key down and hit the + key and your globe will expand. To reverse it, just hit the minus - key and it will go back to regular size. Ex-Gaston will look bigger. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

1908. jurakantaino 04:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grecojdw: HMM. I was born on Long Island, NY. My mother spoke 6 languages and my father five. We moved to Norway, then Germany, then Switzerland and Denmark. I was back and forth between Europe and the U.S. Lived in Italy, then England, back to the U.S. Try that one. Actually, I thought everyone family did that when I was younger. My brothers and sisters and I had play languages and school languages. I had the same problem too in school. My parents told me that they had to have a teachers conference when I was in Kindergarden so they could tell me that no other child spoke so and so language. It's funny they said I had a problem with speaking French with everybody and refusing to speak English to any of my teachers or students. The funny thing is I have forgotten most of the French that I new and apparently I was fluent when I was five:0 i AGREE WITH YOU,knowing other languages helps you understand better other cultures and changes your perpectives towards other nationalities. And yes is fun, I speak 5 and im still studying other languages. Member Since: 31 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

1909. JRRP 04:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting xcool: hurricane season end now lol jajaja Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

1912. txraysfan 04:57 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Well the BOC is on fire right now with convection and I'm very surprised no invest has been issued in the BOC yet. Was looking on the esl site, this stuff in boc could be a mess! Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1914. JLPR2 04:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just hold the CTRL and shift key down and hit the + key and your globe will expand. To reverse it, just hit the minus - key and it will go back to regular size. Ex-Gaston will look bigger. Oh yeah, forgot about that, thanks! But I still need the magnifying glass. :\ Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

1918. will40 05:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
closeness to land may be a prob with BOC Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1919. Grothar 05:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting jurakantaino: i AGREE WITH YOU,knowing other languages helps you understand better other cultures and changes your perpectives towards other nationalities. And yes is fun, I speak 5 and im still studying other languages. I agree, it breaks down barriers and I have met people of different cultures, many of whom have become close friends. I have alway said, "What we do best is understand ourselves; what we do worst is understand others. (not my quote, just like to say it) Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

1920. cirrocumulus 05:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grecojdw: Wow it looks like that system over Mexico might have jumped into the Gulf. This is bad news for Texas if it is forming where the blow up of convection is.:0 Indeed, it is developing rapidly and well ahead of the model data! Member Since: 30 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

1921. TexasHurricane 05:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting will40: closeness to land may be a prob with BOC unless it could move more northward... Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1922. Grothar 05:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Oh yeah, forgot about that, thanks! But I still need the magnifying glass. :\ Just how old are you? LOL Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

1923. will40 05:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: unless it could move more northward... lot of possibilities Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1924. cirrocumulus 05:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
It looks like we have the dynamic duo ready for action. Gaston and the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche! Member Since: 30 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

1925. txraysfan 05:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: NAM and HWRF hammer Brownsville. Also while on the esl site was just looking at different graphics. Looked at the low cloud one-it looks like there is some kind of swirl, but I don't know-am newbie-so maybe someone can explain what I am seeing? Member Since: 17 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

1927. tornadodude 05:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting will40: Hi Matt hey, how you doing? Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

1928. Grothar 05:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting cirrocumulus: Indeed, it is developing rapidly and well ahead of the model data! It certainly is. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

1929. will40 05:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
doing good now that im back home lol hows you? Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3462

1930. futuremet 05:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Forecast for ex-Gaston We will see a substantial increase in ex-Gaston's convection activity tomorrow. It is moving into an area of moist air with good diffluent flow aloft. The upper level low will provide good ventilation and will trigger quasi-persistent convection. This system will not move too close to the upper level low to get sheared apart. If this system enters the Caribbean, it will be capable of pumping a lot of heat into the upper air and generate a vigorous upper level high. The GFS also expects the upper level low weaken slowly as it moves across the Caribbean. The upper level low is the only possible factor I see that can hinder ex-Gaston's tropical cyclognesis. However, this upper level low will actually prove to be beneficial tomorrow. Forecast confidence: 65 percent. I am hungry for crow anyway. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1931. cirrocumulus 05:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Holy Bat Cave! Member Since: 30 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

1933. OracleDeAtlantis 05:08 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting futuremet: Forecast for ex-Gaston We will see a substantial increase in ex-Gaston's convection activity tomorrow. It is moving into an area of moist air with good diffluent flow aloft. The upper level low will provide good ventilation and will trigger quasi-persistent convection. This system will not move too close to the upper level low to get sheared apart. If this system enters the Caribbean, it will be capable of pumping a lot of heat into the upper air and generate a vigorous upper level high. The GFS also expects the upper level low weaken slowly as it moves across the Caribbean. The upper level low is the only possible factor I see that can hinder ex-Gaston's tropical cyclognesis. However, this upper level low will actually prove to be beneficial tomorrow. Forecast confidence: 65 percent. I like your take on this. Two thumbs up ... Member Since: 27 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

1935. JLPR2 05:09 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Grothar: Just how old are you? LOL XD LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

1936. JLPR2 05:10 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting cirrocumulus: Holy Bat Cave! Ex-Gaston sees that and goes: ''Jeez, what a show off!'' LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

1937. cirrocumulus 05:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
The 5:01 update (12:01 Central). Wow NASA is updating quick tonight! Member Since: 30 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

1939. AtHomeInTX 05:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1233 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID SEP 05/0000 UTC THRU SEP 08/1200 UTC REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD/MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND ITS 18Z SOLUTION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM IS FAR AND AWAY THE DEEPEST... BRINGING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR ITS TIMING...ITS DEPTH IS LIKELY TOO GREAT. WILL PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 18Z GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BETTER FITS WHAT WAS COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC AND NHC AT 16Z SATURDAY...ACCOUNTS FOR THE BETTER DEFINED/STRONGER TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS AS WELL AS NHCS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBED WEATHER AREA. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3999

1940. futuremet 05:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Water vapor imagery shows the ULL. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1941. canesugah 05:11 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis: I like your take on this. Two thumbs up ... Yes it was very clear. Thanks. Member Since: 4 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26

1942. Grothar 05:12 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting futuremet: Forecast for ex-Gaston We will see a substantial increase in ex-Gaston's convection activity tomorrow. It is moving into an area of moist air with good diffluent flow aloft. The upper level low will provide good ventilation and will trigger quasi-persistent convection. This system will not move too close to the upper level low to get sheared apart. If this system enters the Caribbean, it will be capable of pumping a lot of heat into the upper air and generate a vigorous upper level high. The GFS also expects the upper level low weaken slowly as it moves across the Caribbean. The upper level low is the only possible factor I see that can hinder ex-Gaston's tropical cyclognesis. However, this upper level low will actually prove to be beneficial tomorrow. Forecast confidence: 65 percent. I am hungry for crow anyway. Agreed! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

1945. EricSFL 05:14 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Ex-Gaston sees that and goes: ''Jeez, what a show off!'' LOL! Is the new burst of convection co-located with the coc ? Member Since: 26 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

1946. cirrocumulus 05:14 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
It's starting to feel like 2005 in the gulf tonight. Fiona has some remnant energy near the Dominican that Gaston will tap into. The disturbance in the gulf may be a TD by morning. It has a slight spin over the open waters. Member Since: 30 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

1947. stillwaiting 05:15 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting tornadodude: I would love to! but also I dont want any to make landfall, so :p ,lol......its gonna happen this yr(landfalling tc) almost 100% chance ;b Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1948. raggpr 05:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Come to life my little boy! Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 243

1949. TexasHurricane 05:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting AtHomeInTX: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1233 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID SEP 05/0000 UTC THRU SEP 08/1200 UTC REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD/MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND ITS 18Z SOLUTION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM IS FAR AND AWAY THE DEEPEST... BRINGING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR ITS TIMING...ITS DEPTH IS LIKELY TOO GREAT. WILL PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 18Z GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BETTER FITS WHAT WAS COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC AND NHC AT 16Z SATURDAY...ACCOUNTS FOR THE BETTER DEFINED/STRONGER TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS AS WELL AS NHCS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBED WEATHER AREA. wumail Member Since: 2 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1950. JLPR2 05:16 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting EricSFL: Is the new burst of convection co-located with the coc ? I believe it's slightly to the west of it. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

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