Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2101 - 2151

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index

2101. victoria780 10:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting swflurker: oops again, meant 2005 season. Remember Hurricane Brett formed in the same location as 90l It became a cat 4 before moving inland ..1999 Member Since: 20 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

2102. IKE 10:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Day 10 GFS takes the vorticity of Gaston to the northern Mexican coast. Has the H storm(unless 90L becomes the H storm), on a path similar to Danielle... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2103. Vero1 10:48 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2104. GeoffreyWPB 10:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

2105. Vero1 10:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2106. Chavalito 10:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Pressure keeps going up AL, 09, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 167N, 492W, 25, 1009, LO, Gaston is technically dead. RIP Member Since: 14 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

2107. Vero1 10:52 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2108. Vero1 10:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Chavalito: Gaston is technically dead. RIP Go back to bed and wake up...you are still dreaming. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010 A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N48W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2109. IKE 10:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Latest NOGAPS is similar to the GFS...with Gaston and an east ATL storm... Link Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2110. lennit 11:03 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
TPC should lower ex Gaston to 50% or less at 8 am . dry air is choking him all he does now is pulse. and shear zone is waiting for him to his west Member Since: 28 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

2111. IKE 11:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting lennit: TPC should lower ex Gaston to 50% or less at 8 am . dry air is choking him all he does now is pulse. and shear zone is waiting for him to his west I was just looking at a water vapor of him. He's centered near 17N and 50W and dry air has gotten all the way into his coc.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2112. lennit 11:12 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
as each day goes by it will be harder and harder for anything to threaten the East coast of US from the East. I am still waiting on this pattern change that has been advertised by some..the C. Atl trof does not move for 10 days and is actually reinforced by day 8 -10 there is no way a system can bust that. as i stated before on here the Sub-T ridge is not very strong this year it can't hold 594 height but for a day or 2 588 is not that strong Member Since: 28 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

2113. QMiami 11:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
holding on Member Since: 12 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

2115. IKE 11:21 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting lennit: as each day goes by it will harder and harder for anything to threaten the East coast of US from the East. I am still waiting on this pattern change that has been advertised by some..the C. Atl trof does not move for 10 days and is actually reinforced by day 8 -10 there is no way a system can bust that. as i stated before on here the Sub-T ridge is not vert strong this year it can't hold 594 height but for a day or 2 588 is not that strong I think the odds of a system making it all the way across the ATL may be decreasing after Gaston. He might make it. If the next system that a lot of models have locked onto, pulls a Danielle, the chances of anything after that making it all the way across the ATL are low. It takes 10-14 days for something to make it from Africa to the east coast. It would be close to October by then. A trough would likely turn it somewhere before the USA(lower 48). Home brew season coming up soon. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2116. IKE 11:23 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Action: Quote \| Ignore User Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4214 lol. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2119. lennit 11:27 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting IKE: I think the odds of a system making it all the way across the ATL may be decreasing after Gaston. He might make it. If the next system that a lot of models have locked onto, pulls a Danielle, the chances of anything after that making it all the way across the ATL are low. It takes 10-14 days for something to make it from Africa to the east coast. It would be close to October by then. A trough would likely turn it somewhere before the USA(lower 48). Home brew season coming up soon. exactly what happened is that Danielle and Earl got strong enough to rob the Atlantic of its tropical energy there is only so much that can be supplied at one time.. tropics are now in the reloading stage. US need to be very concerned of Oct systems from W Caribbean. there has not been one storm to touch that water Member Since: 28 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

2120. HuracandelCaribe 11:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 623 AM AST SUN SEP 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. && .DISCUSSION...AS NOTED ABOVE...TUTT LOW OVER THE FA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTIONS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE TUTT...TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...BUT WITH THE FOCUS BEING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...BUT THIS TIME FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THAT WAS THE EASY PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON...AND EXACTLY WHAT THIS SYSTEM DOES. THIS REMNANT LOW OF GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING WEST AT NEAR 12 KNOTS. THERE REMAINS AN ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCAL FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK. TPC/NHC CONTINUES TO GIVE THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND INDICATE THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS PRETTY WELL DEFINED BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AND REMAIN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...PROBABLY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR (SAL). ASSUMING THE TUTT LOW CONTINUES MOVING AWAY AS EXPECTED...THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (12 OR 13 KNOTS OR LESS) FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS NOW MOVING OVER WARMER OCEAN WATER AND TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...PARTICULARLY FROM 57 OR 58 DEGREES WEST AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS GOING FROM A HURRICANE FORECAST 36 TO 48 HOURS AGO TO BASICALLY A WEAK LOW ALONG A REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WITH THE 05/00Z RUN. INTERESTINGLY...MUCH OF THE NHC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRACK VERY NEAR OR ACROSS THE FA...WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGING FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR LOW END TROPICAL STORM (GFDL) TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO EVEN A HURRICANE (SHIPS AND LGEM). SO...AS MENTIONED THE UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AND WITH THE TIMING APPARENTLY A BIT QUICKER THAN WHAT IT SEEMED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...CUTTING DOWN ON POTENTIAL PREPAREDNESS TIME. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169

2121. QMiami 11:33 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
sal not so bad Member Since: 12 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

2122. tkeith 11:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: This will be the next TWO: I like popcorn in the mornin... Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2123. IKE 11:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
EX-Gaston on IR... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2124. IKE 11:36 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2125. tkeith 11:39 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Conditions for a nice day in New Orleans are favorable...wer're off to a good start. New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport) Updated: 44 min 18 sec ago 76 °F Clear Humidity: 58% Dew Point: 60 °F Wind: 4 mph from the East Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2129. tkeith 11:50 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: I hate that when it happens! If he could just make it to 55 me too... Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2131. scott39 11:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Goodmorning, Are the tropics in a downward MJO right now? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2133. blsealevel 11:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Another Mex. / TX. storm? Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

2136. scott39 11:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 2106: Is that why the 0600Z CHIPS ensemble member still had him going to 140kts? (they just removed it for some reason though.) Still, another model still has him going to 100kts for it's consensus. He's not dead, IMO. He is entering by far the best environment of his lifetime so far. Looks like hes headed into more dry air and some wind shear. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2137. CybrTeddy 11:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
60%.. and still no 90L. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

2140. tkeith 11:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 60%.. and still no 90L. from WU tropical page... Invest 90 Wind: 25 MPH — Location: 19.2 95.6W — Movement: N This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development. ◦Coordinates ◦WunderMap™ ◦Satellite ◦Computer Models Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2142. Tropicsweatherpr 11:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: 60%.. and still no 90L. 90L has been up since 2 AM. Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8159

2144. blsealevel 11:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Surface Winds Upper Winds Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

2145. tkeith 12:01 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: The Atlantic is tripolar. So far we keep seeing the depressive pole. [and yes I see a joke there] it's too early in the mornin for a 24hr ban... Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2147. scott39 12:04 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 2136: Uh, no... The air ahead of him is black and gray on the color scale. (neutral/slightly moist) Yesterday and last night it was all orange(dry/very dry). So what longitude do you expect Gaston to show more than a kernel of popped popcorn and really get going? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2150. tkeith 12:05 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: On the side, you won't miss anything. this is true... Member Since: 1 novembre 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2151. BrandiQ 12:06 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Past 55 they come alive. Right? Dry air puts the F in way. We are still using f in lol. I kinda like to spell it out when I type... effin' :) Member Since: 25 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

Viewing: 2101 - 2151

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters