Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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2351. scott39 13:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I think I need one of the MIB memory erasers now. LOL- You Do?? What about me and my teeth? Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

2352. WindynEYW 13:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: don't confuse the heimlich maneuver with a hot poker, ok? the heimlich manuever is for the cashews. The hot poker is to prod the MJO into it's correct quadrant. maybe he was thinking of the Heiny-lick manuever Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

2353. Caribbeanislands101 13:29 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting PRweathercenter: that's what's iffy to me I think Gaston will be a TS @ 5:00 pm if that convection keeps building Member Since: 7 avril 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347

2356. Eugeniopr 13:30 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 1 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229

2358. hydrus 13:31 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: Just stick a hot poker in it....it's painful, but free. I am sure a spouse or friend could help in a painful situation like that. If you take isopropyl alcohol and a cotton ball,and thoroughly clean the affected area and a needle, it could be drained and cleaned properly...HEy!! How bout that swirl in the Gulf???:) Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

2359. aquak9 13:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Sorry folks. This is what happens when a two-pack-a-day smoker goes cold turkey. It's been two weeks. I have not faltered, I will not falter. Just, my brain ain't right yet. Peace Love Blessings ya'll. Thanks for putting up with me. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2360. WeatherNerdPR 13:32 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Caribbeanislands101: I think Gaston will be a TS @ 5:00 pm if that convection keeps building Wow. That's saying something. Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5490

2362. Gearsts 13:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Caribbeanislands101: I think Gaston will be a TS @ 5:00 pm if that convection keeps building LOL Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2143

2364. aquak9 13:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
and no, I don't have any zits. Vero gets the award for best post about the chart- a fireplace screen saver. really really later later Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2365. StormSurgeon 13:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: unless you need EMS and a heavy equipment operator to get you from the house. in which case, nevermind. ....why's he so pale looking......heh heh. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

2366. scott39 13:34 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: Sorry folks. This is what happens when a two-pack-a-day smoker goes cold turkey. It's been two weeks. I have not faltered, I will not falter. Just, my brain ain't right yet. Peace Love Blessings ya'll. Thanks for putting up with me. Outstanding!! You CAN do it! Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6221

2367. StormSurgeon 13:38 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hydrus: I am sure a spouse or friend could help in a painful situation like that. If you take isopropyl alcohol and a cotton ball,and thoroughly clean the affected area and a needle, it could be drained and cleaned properly...HEy!! How bout that swirl in the Gulf???:) Ouch! I was just kidding. We need the rain now but I think our swirl in the Gulf won't comply. Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

2369. catastropheadjuster 13:38 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 2298: I got one of those right now about 4 inches below the shoulder blade. Might end up needing to get the damn thing lanced. Good Morning all, I see someone was talking about a boil, well I had one when i was younger and my mother went bought this stuff called Black Salve and it really works, it pulls it out, u put it on and put gauze over it and keep it there. It's some stinky stuff. sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

2370. Eugeniopr 13:39 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Link Can someone please check in Invest Preducts, Gaston in 8KM and revert. Member Since: 1 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229

2371. hunkerdown 13:40 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: Looks like we got our selves a depression again folks. Wonder how long before it will be official? RGB imagery shows convection pulsing and a small patch even wrapping around the S now, and this gradual trend should continue as he slides westward. IKE, better add the above 2 to your list... Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2372. WindynEYW 13:41 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
how to cure a boil Member Since: 13 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

2373. stormwatcherCI 13:41 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster: Good Morning all, I see someone was talking about a boil, well I had one when i was younger and my mother went bought this stuff called Black Salve and it really works, it pulls it out, u put it on and put gauze over it and keep it there. It's some stinky stuff. sheri Sulfate magnesium actually works better than black salve but a home remedy they use in Cayman is to take a hot pepper leaf, put some Vicks on it, slightly warm and put it on with gauze. That works pretty good too. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8058

2374. hunkerdown 13:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Storm, any chance Gaston relocates his center further south under the heaviest convection* ?* IKE, yet another oldie but goodie Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2375. wunderkidcayman 13:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
yes I think it is possible that Gaston will be reinstated as TD or TS Gaston Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

2376. spathy 13:42 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Ok Gaston! You got the blender! Are you going to put it in the cake mix? Cook or get out of the kitchen! Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10529

2377. hurricanehanna 13:43 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Good morning all.....I have a really silly question....Does the system formerly know as Gaston not get a tag like 99l because it was already a system? Will they just call it Gaston again if it re-develops? Member Since: 5 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

2380. Eugeniopr 13:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Paging Agent J...Agent K...paging Agent J...Agent K Can you please give us your opinion from this site in 8KB. Thank Yoy Member Since: 1 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229

2381. Vero1 13:44 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: looks like dry air is lessening... Nah it's just the Humidity increasing Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2382. wunderkidcayman 13:45 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
at either 5pm or 11pm today Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

2386. Vero1 13:49 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Have to go car shopping today... would rather have a boil on my Don't forget the "Carfax" Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2388. stormwatcherCI 13:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Moisture pulling up towards the center. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8058

2389. Neapolitan 13:51 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Looking good. From the new floater: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302

2390. coffeecrusader 13:53 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
I remember another storm in 1992 that had a rough time getting his act together, he kept pulsing up and down and his future was very uncertain for several days due to the presence of dry air and a ULL. He eventually got his act together just east of the Bahamas and the rest is history. In case you don't remember, his name was Andrew. Member Since: 21 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254

2391. hydrus 13:55 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: Looking good. From the new floater: Yes. It is an angry looking blob...And vigorous. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

2393. catastropheadjuster 13:56 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Sulfate magnesium actually works better than black salve but a home remedy they use in Cayman is to take a hot pepper leaf, put some Vicks on it, slightly warm and put it on with gauze. That works pretty good too. I will have to remember this.At least it don't sounds like it stinks as bad as the other. sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

2394. seflagamma 13:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting aquak9: Sorry folks. This is what happens when a two-pack-a-day smoker goes cold turkey. It's been two weeks. I have not faltered, I will not falter. Just, my brain ain't right yet. Peace Love Blessings ya'll. Thanks for putting up with me. You just stay here and keep typing. I give a lot of credit to this site when I finally quit little over 3 years ago... There is always a lot of good people around here so you can stay busy typing and reading and laughing with this bunch!!!!! Good morning everyone.. just now logged in and see we still do not have Gaston as of yet... And Earl is still in the far north giving those Caribu and Moose fits! LOL got to do a few things.. go out for a very hot run/walk this morning then will return to help watch out for the return of Gaston. Happy Sunday to all. Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 287 Comments: 40509

2395. aquak9 13:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
post 2391 looks like it has a head Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2396. CycloneUK 13:58 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Member Since: 5 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

2397. stormwatcherCI 13:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster: I will have to remember this.At least it don't sounds like it stinks as bad as the other. sheri Sulphate magnesium is white and has no scent and the Vicks works good. I prefer the sulphate as it seems to work much faster to me. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8058

2398. hydrus 13:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster: I will have to remember this.At least it don't sounds like it stinks as bad as the other. sheri The black stuff does work, your right about the weird smell. Vicks is smelly too. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14682

2399. Vero1 13:59 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Have to go car shopping today... would rather have a boil on my Remember different models shift differently Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

2400. stormwatcherCI 14:00 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Quoting hydrus: The black stuff does work, your right about the weird smell. Vicks is smelly too. The black salve smells like hot tar. LOL Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8058

2401. beeleeva 14:02 GMT le 05 septembre 2010
Should Galveston/Houston worry about 90L???? Member Since: 22 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

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