Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Should Galveston/Houston worry about 90L????

Quoting coffeecrusader:
I remember another storm in 1992 that had a rough time getting his act together, he kept pulsing up and down and his future was very uncertain for several days due to the presence of dry air and a ULL. He eventually got his act together just east of the Bahamas and the rest is history. In case you don't remember, his name was Andrew.

I will never forget how pathetic Andrew looked while he was in the Atlantic when it was moving N.W...Then the ridge formed, Andrew started heading west, and you know the rest.

Quoting coffeecrusader:
I remember another storm in 1992 that had a rough time getting his act together, he kept pulsing up and down and his future was very uncertain for several days due to the presence of dry air and a ULL. He eventually got his act together just east of the Bahamas and the rest is history. In case you don't remember, his name was Andrew.

I will never forget how pathetic Andrew looked while he was in the Atlantic when it was moving N.W...Then the ridge formed, Andrew started heading west, and you know the rest.

Quoting DestinJeff:


those models will shift east.

?? Do you mean north? Or are you joking?

Quoting CycloneUK:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 9W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND THE WAVE IS
VOID OF ANY CONVECTION.

Gaston refuses to give up.

Also, what direction should the unsettled weather in the GOM move?

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Gaston refuses to give up.

Also, what direction should the unsettled weather in the GOM move?

NHC says NW.

The four named storms that formed in August--Colin, Danielle, Earl, and Fiona--were more than formed in '97 (0), '98 (3), '01 (3), '02 (3), '06 (2), and '07 (2). It was the same number that formed in '99, '00, '08, and '09. The only seasons during the current "active" period with more named August storms were 2005, with five, and both 1995 and 2004, which had seven apiece.

2010 surpaassed the August average over the active period, which is 3.7. 2010 also beat the average for June, though it fell short in July. The September average for the active period is 4.4.

FWIW, and speaking of the active period, 2010 has already had the same number of named storms as 1997, and just two more will tie it with '06 and '09.

I think Ex Gaston is finally on his way to getting back his name, once the the center relocates under the heavy convection, he's on his way and gonna take off real fast imo.

Buoy just East of the 90L.

Oh, its an invest 90L expected to move island over Mexico.

Quoting aquak9:
post 2391

looks like it has a head

Good morning,. OMG! Yes it really does look like a creepy head. Kinda ghostlike... Is that to be Gaston haunting us today???

Starting to become better organized.

Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Ex Gaston is finally on his way to getting back his name, once the the center relocates under the heavy convection, he's on his way and gonna take off real fast imo.

He never lost his name. What is the "ex-" about?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Starting to become better organized.

First time I haven't seen convection wane in 2 hours.

ok after looking on the water vapour floater loop gaston is really starting to get moist on the east side and after looking the rgb floater loop it seems that not only is the convection is being pulled into the COC but the COC it self is being pulled into the convection

Buoy south (14N) of Ex-Gaston.

Wow, Storm, the heat of the water in the Carib and GOMEX is scary!

Quoting DestinJeff:


being tied with 06 and 09 will be quite the accomplishment!

Well, it will be to those ignorant trolls and non-scientific downcasters who swore back until two weeks ago that the 2010 season would see the lowest TC numbers ever.

Say, weren't you one of them? :)

It looks like we will have a depression down in the Bay of Campeche in about half an hour!

Quoting StormW:

I don't like this graph.If conditions become favorable aloft,that means Gaston will have something to feed off of.

Storm,

It looks like the gulfcasters need to see what happens this morning!

good morning all

Does any one have a idea when Gaston may become a depression again ?

Based upon visible satellite imagery and the latest data, I would say that ex-Gaston should have the ex label removed. Convection has grown and become better organized in recent hours with low level spiral banding becoming evident. Needs to get some convection developing on the eastern side, but its definitely gotten better organized as the low level circulation has become more defined.

Quoting StormW:


Which graph?

Probably meant the SSTs.

Quoting StormW:

With all that heat potential in the Caribbean if he does come in there which seems like is becoming very possible we are in for a serious situation.

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Wow, Storm, the heat of the water in the Carib and GOMEX is scary!

Quoting StormW:


You got that right...86-88F

I cant get out of my head the thought of a relatively late season storm like Wilma.
I dont like the situation down there!

90L must be a depression by now!

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon visible satellite imagery and the latest data, I would say that ex-Gaston should have the ex label removed. Convection has grown and become better organized in recent hours with low level spiral banding becoming evident. Needs to get some convection developing on the eastern side, but its definitely gotten better organized as the low level circulation has become more defined.

Convection could wrap towards the eastern side by the afternoon. So Gaston should be classified today.

Quoting StormW:


The only saving grace right now, based on things I've been looking at, will be land interaction...definitely don't want him to get too far south.

If he comes in anywhere south of 18N not anything in his way to prevent a serious blowup. I am remembering Ivan, Dean and Felix. Solid hot Caribbean waters.

Quoting btwntx08:
strong vorticity in the boc everyone ignoting this?

I haven't took a look at it until you just posted it, it appears vorticity has REALLY shot up in 90L.

90L convection bursting directly over the center. If I had to guess, I'd say TD sometime today.

As for Gaston, it just needs to continue to develop PERSISTENT convection, and it'll get its name back.

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Based upon visible satellite imagery and the latest data, I would say that ex-Gaston should have the ex label removed. Convection has grown and become better organized in recent hours with low level spiral banding becoming evident. Needs to get some convection developing on the eastern side, but its definitely gotten better organized as the low level circulation has become more defined.

Morning CCHS,

Seems like Gaston will enter the Caribbean and affect the northern islands...

Quoting Grothar:

from there it heads north. that the weak of absent a/b high for everything going poleward. model show intense hurricane{10 days} passing noth of island and again going out to see. who posted a change in the steering were storms would more more to the west. glade that was wrong forecasting

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