Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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201. Stormchaser2007 17:50 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Looks like we may have 90L for the 18z cycle. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

202. Stormchaser2007 17:51 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
"SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER" Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

204. Hurricanes101 17:51 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I am surprised there is no invest in the BOC right now at 30% Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

206. pottery 17:52 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
The TWO has Gaston at 80%, and the Graphic has him at 70%. Not that it matters much, but it's rather confusing.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

207. MiamiHurricanes09 17:53 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: "SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER" That's the key. Based on the current movement towards the NW and weak steering currents, it likely will have enough time to develop. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 17:53 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
XX/XX/09L Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

210. MiamiHurricanes09 17:53 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
...TROPICAL STORM EARL RAKING NOVA SCOTIA...WIND INCREASING ON PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.8N 63.2W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

212. Tazmanian 17:54 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041746 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

214. Hurricanes101 17:54 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting pottery: The TWO has Gaston at 80%, and the Graphic has him at 70%. Not that it matters much, but it's rather confusing.... graphic updates later than the text Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

215. wunderkidcayman 17:55 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. Member Since: 13 juin 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5500

216. oceanblues32 17:55 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
what uis up i heard or saw a pic of 240 hrs out and it had gaston over miami please anyone have any thoughts i am like 5 miles north of miami so i am quite curious Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207

217. WeatherNerdPR 17:55 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 041746 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE A circle of every color. AWESOME! Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

218. MiamiHurricanes09 17:55 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Looks like the NHC just took a trip to Staples and bought a new pack of crayons. :) Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

220. AllyBama 17:55 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Good afternoon everyone! Yep enough to pull Gaston up some and then send him west to FL then the Panhandle. Dang Jeff! did you have to go and say that!..lol Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

221. pottery 17:56 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: They just updated it. Just realised that as well... thanks though. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

222. Levi32 17:56 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Nothing really going on in the Bay of Campeche based on the latest ASCAT pass. It's a surface trough extending northward from TD 11E over Mexico, which for some reason I can't fathom, the NHC is not mentioning. TD 11E's circulation over Mexico is completely overwhelming the area at the moment, which means it would take a dissipation of that vortex and a reformation of the center to the north over the BOC in order for development to occur. We'll see if that happens, but if TD 11E's circulation remains intact it will move northwest and remain mostly over land, meaning no development. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

223. moonlightcowboy 17:57 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Folks, it's a beautiful Labor Day weekend here: 79 �F Clear Humidity: 35% Low tonight: Low 50's Nearly P E R F E C T! Out to enjoy it! It's game day! :) Have a great, safe weekend, all! No RED's, but getting close. And, convection certainly seems to be on the wax. Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28121

225. Stormchaser2007 17:58 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
If Gaston re-develops in the next 24-48 I'll be surprised. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

226. Levi32 17:59 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: I am surprised there is no invest in the BOC right now at 30% Because they would have to pick coordinates for its center that are over land lol. Yes they did it earlier this year after a system moved inland, but they may wait to see if this one moves over water, because really, there is no "center" of anything over water right now. And, the center that is there, is still labeled TD 11E, so they're stuck. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

229. Hurricanes101 17:59 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: If Gaston re-develops in the next 24-48 I'll be surprised. why? I would be surprised if it doesn't reform in the next 24-48 hours actually. Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

230. Levi32 17:59 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: How's college, Levi? Do you like your sweet-mates? My what? Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

231. pottery 18:00 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting AllyBama: Good afternoon everyone! Yep enough to pull Gaston up some and then send him west to FL then the Panhandle. Dang Jeff! did you have to go and say that!..lol LOL, Jeff is just making sure that you are following the plot.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

232. MiamiHurricanes09 18:00 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: My what? LOL! I think he meant people you've met there. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

234. CybrTeddy 18:00 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Levi, I suspect a reformation of the COC might be what the NHC is expecting with TD 11E, some models are showing this developing, particularly the GFS. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

236. Stormchaser2007 18:01 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
LOL Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

237. Tazmanian 18:01 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
000 NOUS42 KNHC 041330 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z. B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z. C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z. 3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. JWP Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

238. MiamiHurricanes09 18:01 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: why? I would be surprised if it doesn't reform in the next 24-48 hours actually. I agree. The NHC's wording it strong in the 2pm TWO. "A tropical depression could form at any time". Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

240. Levi32 18:02 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Levi, I suspect a reformation of the COC might be what the NHC is expecting with TD 11E, some models are showing this developing, particularly the GFS. And so far the GFS has been significantly too far east and north with TD 11E's track, making me doubt it. If we want to play the model game, many keep it over land, and the current motion as of 12z is northwest, which would not take it over water. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

241. pottery 18:02 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: the ones that live with you are called sweet-mates, did you know this? I have lived with Sour-Mates, as well........ Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20712

243. Hurricanes101 18:03 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: And so far the GFS has been significantly too far east and north with TD 11E's track, making me doubt it. If we want to play the model game, many keep it over land, and the current motion as of 12z is northwest, which would not take it over water. but Levi the NHC is seeing some sort of potential there or they would not have gone up to 30% they mention a surface trough and I feel they are treating this area as a completely separate area from former TD 11-E Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

244. Levi32 18:03 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL! I think he meant people you've met there. Quoting 2010FishSpinners: the ones that live with you are called sweet-mates, did you know this? I did not know this lol. Yes my roommate is nice and my honors group are mostly cool people. I think we'll get along pretty well. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

245. moonlightcowboy 18:03 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
One other thing: Gaston is moving west according to the last report, but what I find disturbing is that it's moving at about 10 mph. That's considerably slower than the past few systems we've watched. To me, much more typical of a potentially serious system, especially if this thing finds the Caribbean. If the ridge builds back in as StormW is indicating possible, then I've little doubt Gaston will become one for the history books! It has that kind of potential. Ok, out y'all. Enjoy. Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28121

246. luigi18 18:03 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting StormW: Welcome! They still type faster than I do, though! hello Storm they are saying what you said two days ago about Gaston! Member Since: 21 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 452

249. WeatherNerdPR 18:04 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: How's college, Levi? Do you like your sweet-mates? Quoting Levi32: My what? You can just feel the awkward... LOL!!! Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

250. Vero1 18:04 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 THE REMNANT 1008 MB LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 16N46W MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION SWIRL AROUND THE LOW WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 06N TO 14N ALONG 06W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N06W. HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM EXAMINATION AND UPPER AIR TIME-SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THIS WAVE PASSED NIAMEY NIGER AROUND 03/2100 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 07W-11W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N19W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N22W THEN SSW TO 07N27W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH SW MONSOONAL FLOW LOCATED S OF 10N THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TO 06N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW IS OCCURRING FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 25W-36W. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

251. MiamiHurricanes09 18:05 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Did you guys know that at 11:45 UTC TAFB gave ex-Gaston a T# of 3.0 and SAB a T# of 2.5. In other words, we should be a TS based on that. Let's see what the 17:45 UTC satellite estimates show... Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

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