Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:30 GMT le 04 septembre 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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251. MiamiHurricanes09 18:05 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Did you guys know that at 11:45 UTC TAFB gave ex-Gaston a T# of 3.0 and SAB a T# of 2.5. In other words, we should be a TS based on that. Let's see what the 17:45 UTC satellite estimates show... Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

252. pottery 18:05 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy: One other thing: Gaston is moving west according to the last report, but what I find disturbing is that it's moving at about 10 mph. That's considerably slower than the past few systems we've watched. To me, much more typical of a potentially serious systemm, especially if this thing finds the Caribbean. If the ridge builds back in as StormW is indicating possible, then I've little doubt Gaston will become one for the history books! It has that kind of potential. Ok, out y'all. Enjoy. That's a pretty Grim parting shot! But I tend to agree.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

253. Levi32 18:05 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: but Levi the NHC is seeing some sort of potential there or they would not have gone up to 30% Certainly, and I think it's completely right for them to have it hatched, but I just don't think there will be any development, and I think the GFS is messing up. Look where the 12z GFS has the low center in 12 hours, 0z tonight. Do you see it being up there over the central-southern BOC in 12 hours? Based on this, I think that's way too far northeast, unless a reformation occurs, which is possible, but I don't see it as likely today or tonight. Just my opinion. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

254. Vero1 18:06 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THAT DIPS TO 29N. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 90W IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 30N86W THEN WESTWARD TO 29N90W OVER SE LOUISIANA THEN TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W TO 24N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 28N93W 23N96W TO 19N95W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICO COAST S OF 25N AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 92W. WHILE LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXIST OVER THE SW GULF...GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 78W-85W. Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

255. MiamiHurricanes09 18:07 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
There goes the civilness of the blog... Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

256. Hurricanes101 18:07 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: Certainly, and I think it's completely right for them to have it hatched, but I just don't think there will be any development, and I think the GFS is messing up. Look where the 12z GFS has the low center in 12 hours, 0z tonight. Do you see it being up there over the central-southern BOC in 12 hours? Based on this, I think that's way too far northeast, unless a reformation occurs, which is possible, but I don't see it as likely today or tonight. Just my opinion. this is true, guess we will have to see Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

259. Levi32 18:09 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Current center position of TD 11E's circulation, moving between NW and NNW: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

260. PalmBeachWeather 18:09 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
miamihurricanes.....I agree..It only takes a few quotes to cause a rampage here.Right or Wrong. By the way.OSU will kick the Canes butt next Saturday... Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3128

261. AllyBama 18:09 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
ROFL -pottery! LOL, Jeff is just making sure that you are following the plot I know...I will have to worry about Gaston and all others tomorrow. College Football season starts today and I am sooo ready! I promise to be more focused tomorrow!..:) Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20504

262. oceanblues32 18:09 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting AllyBama: Good afternoon everyone! Yep enough to pull Gaston up some and then send him west to FL then the Panhandle. Dang Jeff! did you have to go and say that!..lol do we have any thoughts on what intensity it maybe if it possibly hits florida Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207

263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:09 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
XX/XX/09L MARK 16.77N/46.78W Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

264. InTheCone 18:10 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: My what? LOL!! I think that would be suite-mates, more commonly known as dorm rats! Member Since: 1 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

265. MiamiHurricanes09 18:10 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting PalmBeachWeather: miamihurricanes.....I agree..It only takes a few quotes to cause a rampage here.Right or Wrong. By the way.OSU will kick the Canes butt next Saturday... Mhhhmmm, yeah, yeah, we'll see about that. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

266. IKE 18:10 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
24 hour 12Z ECMWF... 48 hour... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

267. PalmBeachWeather 18:11 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
AlleyBama.....College football season started Thursday when OSU kicked Marshall' Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3128

268. BDADUDE 18:11 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
In case anyone is interested about us in Bermuda. We all survived the fury of Fiona intact. It had about the same strength as Colin did. Some leaves blew in my pool last night but I managed to get them out. Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

269. Levi32 18:11 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: They tried some first day "hazing" on Levi, but he turned the tables and made some watermelon "punch". Let's see yes, I have the video. Nobody messes with Levi now.. LOL! Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

270. Levi32 18:12 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting IKE: 24 hour 12Z ECMWF... 48 hour... Looks interesting for the SW Bay of Campeche, but it moves inland very quickly. We'll have to see how much can get over water. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

271. pottery 18:12 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
3/4" of rain with that stuff so far. Thunder still rumbling and crashing about just north of me. Looks to be clearing a little. Nice energy............. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

273. stormwatcherCI 18:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: come on, levi, we have dorm-mates and sweet-mates, you really didn't know about this? LOL. Or are you living alone? Actually, it's suite not sweet. LOL Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063

274. MiamiHurricanes09 18:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
The 12z dynamical model envelope for ex-Gaston does look quite scary. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

275. originalLT 18:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
I know he's old news, but Earl still has a good appearence on the Vis. Satellite , as he rockets Northeastward now over the waters of The Gulf of St. Lawrence. Member Since: 31 janvier 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5189

276. Neapolitan 18:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Still lots of heat, though the wakes of both Danielle and Earl (closer to the US coast) are visible: Click for larger image: Of course, the white hot NW Caribbean is just sitting and simmering, waiting for the first taker. Note the--literally--off-the-charts heat potential in the astounding 160-170 kJ cm/2 range: Click for larger image: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11308

277. IKE 18:13 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting BDADUDE: In case anyone is interested about us in Bermuda. We all survived the fury of Fiona intact. It had about the same strength as Colin did. Some leaves blew in my pool last night but I managed to get them out. Good news....with the leaves! 72 hour 12Z ECMWF... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

278. Levi32 18:14 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Yay, brunch is now being served. Apparently I have to live with only 2 meals a day on weekends and holidays, so I must go stuff up lol. Later all. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

281. AllyBama 18:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting PalmBeachWeather: AlleyBama.....College football season started Thursday when OSU kicked Marshall' dang!..and I watched a bit of the game - my bad..lol Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20504

282. Vero1 18:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Member Since: 21 juillet 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

283. pottery 18:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting BDADUDE: In case anyone is interested about us in Bermuda. We all survived the fury of Fiona intact. It had about the same strength as Colin did. Some leaves blew in my pool last night but I managed to get them out. Glad you survived it. Those falling leaves can be deadly... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

284. WeatherNerdPR 18:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The 12z dynamical model envelope for ex-Gaston does look quite scary. :O Member Since: 7 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5490

285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:15 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: come on, levi, we have dorm-mates and sweet-mates, you really didn't know about this? LOL. Or are you living alone? jfv its suite man get it right duh Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

286. MiamiHurricanes09 18:16 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: :O Yeah, keep your eyes peeled for ex-Gaston. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20011

289. SunnyDaysFla 18:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Come on already---it is suite not sweet. Member Since: 19 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

290. IKE 18:18 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting 2010FishSpinners: Poor model, will it ever get anything right? Ike, did you forget to post the 12z gfs because it took Gaston into the GOM and then it took it up towards the panhandle area of FL, was that why? LOL. Yup...that's exactly why. I figured if I didn't post it, it wouldn't happen. 96 hours...ECMWF... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

294. PalmBeachWeather 18:19 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
.....IKE....Led? Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3128

298. WxLogic 18:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Good afternoon... Things are heating up once more... Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4721

299. pottery 18:21 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
You need to turn your 'echo' feature "off", Fishspinner.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

301. IKE 18:22 GMT le 04 septembre 2010
Quoting PalmBeachWeather: .....IKE....Led? Zep...Link 120 hours... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

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