Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific
The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.
Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.
Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.
94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.
Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.
A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.
It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.
Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.
I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Where in the Caribbean and when are both good questions. Think back to the broad areas of low pressure (monsoonal) we have seen this year down there. Most of them sloooooow developers.
Meanwhile, the troughs and ridges keep their own timetable.
/ AFD
Why?
Hey "killer," good to see you.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010
VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010
CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.
THE 00Z/20 ECMWF HAS STUCK WITH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
KANSAS CITY BY SUN/D6 WHILE THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. EVEN HERE... THE 00Z
GEFS/NAEFS ARE FASTER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF
ENS MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN LARGE CONTINUITY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...LOWERING OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE. TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA FAVOR ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE
WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE PERIOD...NOT A CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDWEST. FOLLOWED ALONG THE
LINE OF HPC CONTINUITY BY USING A 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND EARLY ON AS AN INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
00Z CANADIAN/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY WHICH KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL US AS THE WESTERLIES ARE FORCED THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA.
ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EAST INTO MEXICO....THOUGH
THERE IS A QUESTION MARK CONCERNING WHERE ANY POSSIBLE CLOSED
CYCLONES WOULD FORM WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH WHICH MAKES PINNING
DOWN RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COORDINATION
WITH TPC LED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSION IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WENT WITH THEIR IDEAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
Only way that scenario happens is if the ridge holds strong or the trough doesn't make it far enough.
I call nonsense on that particular run.
(I'd call it something a bit stronger, but I respect this blog and its users.)
Anthony
Tickling neurons that had been untouched for quite a while...
Okay is that something over Florida???
--
I see 94L still at 80%, still 20% chance it will never develope.
appears to be the case, that and the stuff coming up from the South, looks like their going to mix it up a bit and well their you go.
Pilotguy
I heard back today from my co-workers from Veracruz ...and from the ones that have checked in two of them totally lost their homes and everything in it and another has his home flooded.
I was in Veracruz in July when it only rained ...and the flooding was horrible. I'm pretty sure that it's well under water at this time
OK, true, a billion is a pretty hefty chunk-o-change. I figured they were referring to both landfalls, replacing roads, stuff like that.
Odd though, I had to stop and remind myself that "only 1 billion" is a bit of an oxymoron.
Yeah, been to MN. Wadena, which I belive means "nowhere" in american indian. Where were you?
That was an ensemble mean. Apparently some number of ensemble members had a weaker ridge.
No more so than you should have been prepared on July 1...
you should be always prepared. during the peak of the season more so
That's a good question, the circulation was pulled by the convection and now it needs a name.
totally concur.
Nothing written in stone... but 'tis the season to pay attention...
i resemble that remark lol
I imagine they're just waiting for 30 knots, huh? Can't think of what else might be the hold up. Closed surface circulation? Check. Lowering pressure? Check. Symmetrical satellite presentation? Check. Evident rotation? Check. Circular 850mb vorticity? Check. High-level outflow in most/all quadrants? Check.
But--as always--we'll have to wait and see...
Are you on the Keweenaw, or where abouts?
a very bad OCT storm Hurricane Hazel
Small chance at a track like that with a very deep trough portrayed over the Eastern CONUS.
Dude, I just changed the oil on my snowblower...you should have been ready by May. I'm sure if you throw a tarp over it everything will do fine...that is what any good Yooper does here anyway. ;-)
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