Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific
The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.
Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.
Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.
94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.
Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.
A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.
It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.
Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.
I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Broderick?
please stop please just let it go
CMC TAKE Pouch PGI46L IN C.A
NO WAY! I it's way to early to make that call as things could change in 2 weeks after that trough develops.
That is incorrect. The south equatorial belt disappeared, as it has in the past. The Great Red Spot has been there since long before we were born and will be there long after we are gone. Please check your facts before posting.
00z CMC Global Forecast Model TAKE Pouch PGI46L IN LA
Not according to the 00z GFS...Shows the storm drifting E then getting pulled N across E Cuba. Through the Bahamas and then out to sea.
I don't think it's so much that people are 'upset' that the model doesn't show it hitting Florida - The issue that people have with it as I read it is that this run is completely out of line and a drastic change from the previous runs.
It's always better to read what someone says and take it at face value, and if you aren't sure what they mean, then ask them. The problems start when we read into something instead of just reading it. IMHO of course.
The northern GOM never even had a season this year, if anything came close - it dissipated (a la Bonnie, TD 5 - the central Carribean has seen obscenely low activity this year too (thus far), I've never quite seen that before.
No problem. Sorry if I was a little harsh. Because I NEVER make mistakes, lol.
Hard to argue that about the northern GOM, where it has been a benign season, so far.
Nah..he's a wolf in sheep's clothing with 3 initials.
Yes he did!
I use the models as a tool, not a crutch. Late October, then I would believe regular troughs digging into the SE, not late September. A rogue trough maybe but, surely not a season capper.
I don't post much but lurk whenever I have the time, so I know about the..well, you know.
My question is: What were the dynamics which caused Charley to take that sudden turn in 2004?
okay, two questions: Is it possible for steering patterns to be measured two weeks from now?
apologies if these queries were answered earlier. some of the repartee is laugh out loud. keep up the good spirits! Looking forward to any answer to my questions. TIA
But aren't the stronger than average troughs the reason that all the CV storms have curved well before the conus?
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
i was rigth ding ding haha
Love your polydactyl kitty. :)
We're all gonna die!
j/k
The weakness in the CATL is the reason they have all recurved, not the troughs.
Haha...he's got 25 of them..good eye :)
The troughs have helped keep the weakness there though. Well, those...And the fact that the Azores high seemed to be shifted E this year.
Among a few other things, IMO.
1. Organizing further east
2. Stronger storms move more poleward
If you look back at the discussions for the likes of Earl and IGOR, the troughs don't come into play until the end. The weakness is what allowed them to turn North, the troughs did the kicking.
As is typical in a stronger La Nina. Most of the storms have made it further west than forecast because A. of a stronger ridge and B. because the troughs were weaker than forecast.
The troughs are there yes, but, the weakness is what stopped the cyclones and turned them north. Each in itself keeping the weakness open for the other.
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