Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L close to tropical storm strength
A tropical wave (Invest 95L), moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean, will bring gusty winds and heavy rain squalls to the northern coasts of Colombia and Venezuela this morning, as well as the Netherlands Antilles Islands. This disturbance will bring dangerous flooding rains to the countries bordering the Western Caribbean this weekend, and may also be a threat to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast late next week. A hurricane hunter aircraft is in 95L, and found a large region of surface winds of 35 - 45 mph to the east of 95L's center. If they find a closed circulation, 95L will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew today. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly in recent hours, with a solid curved band of intense thunderstorms growing to the northeast of 95L's center. Low-level spiral bands are also developing to the southeast of the center, but a closed surface circulation is not yet obvious from satellite imagery.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of 95L, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear over 95L today. By Friday, 95L will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday afternoon. This drop in shear may allow for rapid intensification of 95L as it approaches landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Friday night and early Saturday morning. NHC is giving the disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Figure 2. Forecast track of 95L from an ensemble of runs of the GFS model done at 2am EDT this morning.
The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One measure of the uncertainty in 95L's future track can be gained by viewing the ensemble forecast from the GFS model. An ensemble forecast is generated by taking the initial conditions in the atmosphere and making slight variations in the temperature, pressure, and humidity fields. Twenty or so tweaks of the initial conditions are made, and the GFS model run twenty separate times for each new set of initial conditions. The resulting ensemble of model runs gives one an idea of how sensitive the future track of the storm might be to errors in characterizing the initial state of the atmosphere. As one can see from this morning's GFS ensemble run (Figure 2), there are a wide range of possibilities for where 95L might go. The main thing I am confident of at this point is that 95L will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will likely cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.
Tropical Depression Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remnants of Hurricane Julia are still spinning over the far Eastern Atlantic, and are generating some sporadic heavy thunderstorm to the north of the center of circulation. Julia's remains are being given a 10% chance of re-developing by NHC. There are no other threat areas to discuss, and none of the models is calling for development (except for 95L) over the next seven days.
Hurricane Karl's moisture causing flooding in Minnesota, Wisconsin
A plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl last week has surged northwards over the Central U.S. over the past two days. This moisture is now being lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has generated flooding rains in excess of six inches in southern Minnesota this morning. Flood warnings and flood watches are posted for a wide swath of the upper Midwest today, including most of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. The latest forecast discussion from the NWS office in Minneapolis notes that the forecast amount of moisture in the air this afternoon is similar in magnitude to the all-time record for this time of year (set on September 2, 1953.) These kinds of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.
Figure 3. Radar estimated rainfall over Minnesota.
Next post
I'll have an update on 95L later today. The timing will depend upon what the Hurricane Hunters find.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Looking at recon and sat, I agree. Don't think CA is going to come into play.
Models with the new data and position will be interesting.
Just a little levity...
Notice the ;)
Seriously dry air. I'm really surprised at how well 95l looks in spite of this. Obviously it should continue to moisten over the 30²C seas.
Must be unstable enough just at the surface to get convection though. WEIRD.
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
Sorry, "Hope" I didn't come across too serious LOL
So, you'd then go to named storms...
Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, September 23rd, with Video
16:03:00 14.083N 74.883W 1006.7 mb Extrap Surface
Link
The main thing I am confident of at this point is that 95L will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will likely cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides. -- Dr. Jeff Masters
Lots going on.
WATLoop
Slightly off topic, but I read about a retired couple that actually moved their vacation up so that they could be on Bermuda for Igor. Wanted to see a hurricane. I hope my spirit is still intact like that when I'm up in years :) Cheers to youthful adventurism.
Statatement from this morning w/validate shortly!!!!
Good morning Levi
Odd.
I do expect the 00Z runs to give a better picture as they should fully have up to date info on the new pressure and location of 95L/Matthew to that compared to 12Z.
It's the quintessential question we have to deal with being a surfer. Is it right to wish for waves when death and destruction will certainly occur?
The good thing about that question is we don't decide that......mother nature does.
that means the pressure is even lower at the center
95L is really going to have a hard time coming north into that ridge over the GOM. By time that trough digs down in the Miss Valley.. "Mathew" will be already in Belieze and maybe making it into the BOC. GFS still depicts low pressure around Jamaica.. this could be a Major Feedback problem blowing up something that is not really there but lingering moisture. ECMWF feels there will be a broad low in the NW carribean. I will have to concur with that. I'm not so inclined to think the GFS solution of blowing up something will happen yet cause that is 5 days out. For now. I think 95L will go into Belieze and a board area of low pressure will be between the Yucitan and Jamaica and move north.. It may develop once it gets close to Cuba but thats 5-6 days out. Again the GFS has something, but its seems to blow up something coming from just moisture feed from the eastern carribean. Final word is, wait and see, but 95L-Mathew should be a Belieze system, but models do change.
Good morning. No problem.
That's just Gaston's 2nd Child :)Georgette needed somebody to play with
Depends how stringent you want to be (it was a TD at first almost on top of T&T). However, when it regenerated again it did so east of 80W. It was also named east of 80W once it had regenerated.
Also in September.
Jeanne almost did as well - TD just east of the Windwards.
At the very least, we've debunked that one.
Quartz beaches?
FULL IMAGE
yikes. soup's on.
Not good but reality sucks....how strong do you think 95L will be when it reaches our (Belize not Belieze - smile) neck of the woods?
@ 204 hours...
You've got to be kidding...
west side starts after the middle ;)
we're bout there.
Link
#5 - Atlantic City, NJ
#4 - Savannah, GA
#3 - Tampa Bay, FL
#2 - New York City, NY
#1 - MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE!
Yikes!
Oddly enough, thats not 95L.
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