Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L close to tropical storm strength
A tropical wave (Invest 95L), moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean, will bring gusty winds and heavy rain squalls to the northern coasts of Colombia and Venezuela this morning, as well as the Netherlands Antilles Islands. This disturbance will bring dangerous flooding rains to the countries bordering the Western Caribbean this weekend, and may also be a threat to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast late next week. A hurricane hunter aircraft is in 95L, and found a large region of surface winds of 35 - 45 mph to the east of 95L's center. If they find a closed circulation, 95L will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew today. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly in recent hours, with a solid curved band of intense thunderstorms growing to the northeast of 95L's center. Low-level spiral bands are also developing to the southeast of the center, but a closed surface circulation is not yet obvious from satellite imagery.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of 95L, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear over 95L today. By Friday, 95L will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday afternoon. This drop in shear may allow for rapid intensification of 95L as it approaches landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Friday night and early Saturday morning. NHC is giving the disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.
Figure 2. Forecast track of 95L from an ensemble of runs of the GFS model done at 2am EDT this morning.
The future of 95L depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If 95L misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Monday, as predicted by last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) run of the GFDL model. However, if 95L spends significant time over Honduras, as predicted by the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. 95L is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to slow and turn more to the north. 95L will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of 95L spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, 95L will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force 95L westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing 95L northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of 95L are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One measure of the uncertainty in 95L's future track can be gained by viewing the ensemble forecast from the GFS model. An ensemble forecast is generated by taking the initial conditions in the atmosphere and making slight variations in the temperature, pressure, and humidity fields. Twenty or so tweaks of the initial conditions are made, and the GFS model run twenty separate times for each new set of initial conditions. The resulting ensemble of model runs gives one an idea of how sensitive the future track of the storm might be to errors in characterizing the initial state of the atmosphere. As one can see from this morning's GFS ensemble run (Figure 2), there are a wide range of possibilities for where 95L might go. The main thing I am confident of at this point is that 95L will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will likely cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.
Tropical Depression Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remnants of Hurricane Julia are still spinning over the far Eastern Atlantic, and are generating some sporadic heavy thunderstorm to the north of the center of circulation. Julia's remains are being given a 10% chance of re-developing by NHC. There are no other threat areas to discuss, and none of the models is calling for development (except for 95L) over the next seven days.
Hurricane Karl's moisture causing flooding in Minnesota, Wisconsin
A plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl last week has surged northwards over the Central U.S. over the past two days. This moisture is now being lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has generated flooding rains in excess of six inches in southern Minnesota this morning. Flood warnings and flood watches are posted for a wide swath of the upper Midwest today, including most of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. The latest forecast discussion from the NWS office in Minneapolis notes that the forecast amount of moisture in the air this afternoon is similar in magnitude to the all-time record for this time of year (set on September 2, 1953.) These kinds of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.
Figure 3. Radar estimated rainfall over Minnesota.
Next post
I'll have an update on 95L later today. The timing will depend upon what the Hurricane Hunters find.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't usually send out many forecasts on here, do it enough for a living, but here's what I'm seeing with 95 and the whole mess down there. Most likely we'll have Matthew by this weekend, but its looking more and more like a Honduras - Nicaragua scenario. The upper level low that sets up later this weekend over the south will most likely not "bring" Matthew north, however it is going to conveyor belt the copious amounts of Caribbean moisture NE into the eastern Gulf and eventually into the Southeast US. This could be an extended period of very wet weather for residents of Florida, Georgia, and even SC. Gotta go with Bob on the shear set up from the ULL over the southern US. This will most likely inhibit anything from really forming out of Matthew, but again flooding rains could be the big culprit next week for the SE US.
I make them off google earth and then post them.
Hey, we have 1 day of summer. And have you seen our feet? Seriously, black socks are needed.
They are all in (H)ollywood and (H)allandale Beach, anyway.
I thought Dr. masters said the models dropeed those systems?
Bye tonight this thing is going to be a strong tropical storm in my opinoin, remember once this thing moves a more west and puts itself in the center of the bay its going to be a prime inflow environment, and to add to that those monster storms on its east and north side will have had time wrap around the west and south side helping to aid in a more defined low level circulation.
thats pretty cool! crafty! where do you get the raw data? do you have to have access through an institution or something?
That sure clears it up -haha
Anyone with google earth can do it... its the posting of them that takes a little time. Most people have to use photobucket or something. I actually have a couple websites...so I upload the pics there and then link them to my blog.
Although I hate to think of the truly dangerous part of the storm harming anyone, I must say -- as someone in GA -- we would be grateful for the rain!
I was getting ready to ask that, honestly.
for your kind information, I do not ask that everyday. also, I went to storm's website but for some reason it gave me an error, so that is why I am asking. any more questions??
I am not inmature nor do I like to have frivilous arguments. I am here to ask questions and learn. you don't have to answer but please do not give me smart elik remarks. And... you peeved me by giving me that kind of response.
Link
I could see that happening for sure. 95L burying itself in Central America/Yucatan.
However, the strong shear with the trough stays over the northern Gulf while a ridge aloft remains over Cuba/western Carribean. This might allow a second system to form/or eventually allow 95L to pull back over water and strengthen.
Definitely one of the more intriguing patterns I've seen in a while.
Sorry for the questiosn.. this is pretty cool. Where can I get the raw data form the hurricane hunters, is it somewhere on google earth?
I'm assuming this is for me...
You're welcome.
LOL. Fact is... the GFS has been projecting a tropical cyclone of some sort (everything from a weak TS to a strong Cat 2/3 HU in the vicinity of FL for the past several days (8 or so now).
First it was north into the Gulf on Tuesday, then early Wednesday the models shifted south and west which kept the system over Central America and Mexico longer. Then last night the turn north into the Yucatan Channel was evident again. Today its back to the south
Models have done the classic flip-flop all along and usually in that scenario, both possibilities are equally as likely
here is the kmz link
thanks!!
Hello what part?? I'm now in Wesley Chapel but work in a hospital in Tampa.
Thank you for posting a logical response.
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
v/r
Jon
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
I like this idea - was talked about several years ago - WI could claim all the S. Lake Superior snowbelts!!!! Say Yah to dah UP :)
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