Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TD 16 organizing; Mexican landslide kills hundreds; hottest day ever in Los Angeles

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 19:25 GMT le 28 septembre 2010

The large area of low pressure centered just south of Cuba's Isle of Youth has developed enough of a well-defined circulation to be classified as Tropical Depression Sixteen, and is likely to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The depression has a very broad center, with little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and is this very dissimilar to the usual types of tropical depressions we see in the Atlantic. The large size, broad center, and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of TD 16 will limit the storm's ability to rapidly intensify. TD 16 resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. Today's monsoon-like depression in the Caribbean was able to form because the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). This unusual flow pattern is forecast to remain in place for at least the next ten days.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been flying at 700 feet in TD 16 since 1:30pm EDT, and has thus far found a central pressure of 999 mb. The strongest winds at flight level seen as of 3:20pm EDT were 32 mph, located about 100 miles east of the center of TD 16. Surface observations show that the strongest winds at any surface station continue to be at Buoy 42057, several hundred miles to the southeast of TD 16's center. Winds were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 2:43pm EDT this afternoon. Rotation of TD 16 can be seen on radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba, and well as satellite imagery. The heavy thunderstorms are currently quite disorganized, but a curved band is beginning to wrap around the north side of the center, signaling that TD 16 is growing more organized. TD 16 has brought torrential rains to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, and Honduras today.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida and Cuba. TD 16 has brought 2 - 4 inches of rains to the region.

Forecast for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large, it will take more time than a typical depression for it to spin up into a strong tropical storm. Given that the steering currents are expected to pull TD 16 north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, the storm lacks sufficient time over water to be any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm for Florida. TD 16 is organizing pretty slowly this afternoon, and I think the top winds in Southeast Florida are most likely to be in the 25 - 35 mph range on Wednesday. Winds are likely to be stronger in the western Bahamas, perhaps 30 - 40 mph, since they will be in the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. By the time TD 16 makes landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday morning, it could be as strong as a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm. However, wind shear will increase sharply on Thursday as TD 16 gets caught in an upper-level trough of low pressure, and NHC is giving TD 16 only a 9% chance of making it to hurricane strength before it becomes an extratropical storm on Thursday. The primary danger from TD 16 is not wind, but heavy rainfall. A potent upper-level low and stationary front over the U.S. East Coast have been pulling moist, tropical air from the Caribbean northwards over the past few days, bringing heavy rains that have saturated the soils. This is called a Predecessor Rain Event, or PRE, since it comes in advance of the actual rain shield of the storm. (A PRE from Hurricane Karl brought southern Wisconsin the heavy rain that caused the levee on the Wisconsin River to fail yesterday.) Wilmington, NC received 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its second greatest one-day rainfall since record keeping began in 1871. Only the 13.38" that fell during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999 beat yesterday's rainfall total. With TD 16 expected to bring another 6 - 8 inches of rain to the region later this week, serious flooding is likely, and flash flood watches are posted for the North Carolina/ South Carolina border region. South Florida is also under a flood watch, for 3 - 5 inches of rain. Flooding rains of similar magnitude can also be expected in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Western Bahamas through Wednesday night. Both the GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that TD 16 will dump rains in excess of eight inches along narrow portions of its path in eastern Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Sunday, October 3, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 1,000 feared dead in Mexican landslide
Mexico has taken the brunt of the devastation from the hurricane season of 2010, thanks to the landfalls of this year's two deadliest and most damaging storms, Hurricanes Alex and Karl. But Mexico's worst blow yet hit this morning, when heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew triggered a landslide in Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state that buried as many as 1,000 people in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, a town of 9,000. Rescuers have not reached the area yet, but hundreds are feared dead in the 300 homes that were buried by the early morning landslide. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico (Figure 3) show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing 1 - 2 inches of additional rain through Thursday.

Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the five-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday September 27, 2010. The dark green colors show where rainfall amounts of 300 mm (about 12 inches) fell, due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Once TD 16 moves out of the Caribbean, the GFS model predicts that the Western Caribbean will "reload" and produce another tropical disturbance capable of developing into a tropical depression early next week. The GFS also predicts a tropical or subtropical storm will form over the Bahamas late this week, and move north-northeast along the U.S. East Coast, missing hitting land. The NOGAPS model hints at the Bahamas storm, and also predicts development of a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands, about a week from now.

Hottest day in Los Angeles history
The mercury hit a blistering 113°F (45.0°C) at 12:15 pm PDT yesterday in downtown Los Angeles, making it the hottest day in Los Angeles history. It may have gotten hotter, but the thermometer broke shortly after the record high was set. The previous record in Los Angeles was 112°F set on June 26, 1990; records go back to 1877. Nearby Long Beach tied its hottest all-time temperature yesterday, with a scorching 111°F. And Christopher C. Burt, our new featured blogger on weather records, pointed out to me that a station in the foothills at 1260' elevation near Beverly Hills owned by the Los Angeles Fire Department hit 119°F yesterday--the hottest temperature ever measured in the Los Angeles area, tying the 119°F reading from Woodland Hills on July 22, 2006. Yesterday's record heat was caused by an unusually large and intense upper-level high pressure system centered over Nevada that generated winds blowing from the land to the ocean, keeping the ocean from exerting its usual cooling influence. Remarkably, Los Angeles had its second coldest summer on record this year, and temperatures just five days ago were some the coldest September temperatures in the region for the past 50 years.

The remarkable summer of 2010
Wunderground is pleased to welcome a new featured blogger--weather historian Christopher C. Burt. Chris is a leading expert in the U.S. on weather records, and is author of the world's most popular weather records book published to date, Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book. He's spent a lifetime collaborating with like-minded individuals from around the world, and no one--including official sources such as the National Climatic Data Center and the National Extremes Committee--has done as thorough a job correlating the various weather records available and determining the most accurate extreme values of such. Each month he'll be reporting on the notable records for heat, cold, and precipitation set world-wide, and his first post takes a look at the remarkable summer of 2010. It's great to have someone like Chris who stays on top of weather extremes, and I hope you'll pay a visit to his blog and welcome him to the wunderground site!

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.

Jeff Masters

Alone again, naturally (ftogrf)

Lonely Seagull, as a storm associated with TD 16 is approaching.

Categories: Hurricane

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951. Stormchaser2007 23:24 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

952. leo305 23:24 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: then how come we have seen Sub tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical systems by the Azores? because when they form, water temps are around the low 70s and 60s at times.. then again water temps are not the ONLY thing that dictate whether or not a system is tropical or subtropical Member Since: 17 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

953. CybrTeddy 23:24 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
SAB says TD16 has gone from a bad disease to a space shuttle. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

955. intampa 23:25 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
dont really post at all but just hope that somehow someway we get some rain in the riverview fl area( near tampa)need rain bad at my place. no rain at my place for a couple of weeks now and very dry. even with all the action around today.. barely got a sprinkle. Member Since: 6 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

957. presslord 23:26 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting sailingallover: Hows that work there? I mean I have been down through there Myrtle beach ICW etc and you guys have creeks and sloughs everywhere but also those 3-6'+ tides. I'd think in most places it would run off with the tide. But I've never experienced a really have rain even there. IN NC I did in the Pamlico and it was just gone with the tide the next day. Now when inland rains came and flood the rivers that was different along the rivers above the tidal areas. Also watch out for snakes if there is flooding. it's called the Lowcountry...'cause it's low...there's nowhere for the water to go Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

958. Stormchaser2007 23:26 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
STS Olga Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

960. Bordonaro 23:26 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
When does the new ATCF report come out on 16L?? Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

962. Patrap 23:27 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ...CYCLONE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DAY 1... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES...USE OF THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM IS DISCOURAGED. THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...AND 12Z UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. THE ECMWF MEAN ALSO HANDLES THE SURFACE LOW WELL. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

963. CybrTeddy 23:27 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: When does the new ACTF report come out on 16L?? 8:00 - 8:30 IIRC. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

964. nash28 23:27 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Looking at the frontal boundary "moonwalking" back over us tomorrow and the possible shift west with "Nicole" we could get some obscene rainfall amounts in the next two days. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

965. CaptnDan142 23:27 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Is this gutcasting? Yes. A system of forecasting that is unique to the forecaster based upon previous observations, influenced sometimes by the content of their most recent meal. Thsi technique causes no harm to the forecaster, as opposed to and not to be confused with the highly scientific method, "goat-casting". Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

966. Levi32 23:28 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Patrap: THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ...CYCLONE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DAY 1... PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES...USE OF THE NAM FOR THIS SYSTEM IS DISCOURAGED. THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...AND 12Z UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND DEPTH OF BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. THE ECMWF MEAN ALSO HANDLES THE SURFACE LOW WELL. Fine...GFS? Shows the same thing. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461

967. Patrap 23:28 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
ooofh,,... Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

968. MiamiHurricanes09 23:28 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
It will be interesting to see how much 16L intensifies once it is over the Florida straights/Gulf stream. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

969. Seastep 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Seastep: LOL. So I'm not the only one! Clarifying because it might be taken wrong. I'm not the only one to fall on my face in my attempts at humor around here... Member Since: 9 septembre 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

970. cloudy0day 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: For TD16 To make TS Status All this talk of left shifting models and school closings is getting me all hyped up! I could use a day off, I work with 5 schools. But I do not want to spend the day seeing where water has found it's way into my 1926 house from TS winds. Member Since: 10 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

971. Stormchaser2007 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Great shot of the "Perfect Storm" becoming subtropical. FULL IMAGE Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

972. Patrap 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

973. spathy 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
OMG The Schools! Unless you are a working parent.... Do your homework and you are good! Member Since: 8 juin 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

974. presslord 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Patrap: ooofh,,... Stop it!! Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

975. Stormchaser2007 23:29 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Seastep: Clarifying because it might be taken wrong. I'm not the only one to fall on my face in my attempts at humor around here... Ah LOL I was gonna say... Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

978. mississippiwx23 23:30 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Nash, I agree completely. Trends are definitely moving towards the heaviest rain being very close to the Charleston area. Not good at all for us. Luckily tides are not too high. Member Since: 20 août 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683

979. Levi32 23:30 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Another fun fact. I have never seen a subtropical system produce cloud tops of -80C. It doesn't happen. Why? Because subtropical cyclones are partially cold-core, and partially cold-core systems do not contain enough heat to push thunderstorms that high. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461

980. nash28 23:31 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting presslord: Stop it!! LOL!!! Pat... You've reduced Press to two words/two syllables! Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

981. Bordonaro 23:31 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Is the EDT? And may I please have the link to that specific site? And what does IIRC stand for? Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

982. cloudy0day 23:31 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Patrap: ooofh,,... Hey, knock that catapillar off Fl on that map! Member Since: 10 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15

983. Stormchaser2007 23:32 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
"OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY THIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. IN ANY EVENT...RECENT HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME." Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

984. Patrap 23:32 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting nash28: LOL!!! Pat... You've reduced Press to two words/two syllables! You dont know what delight that can bring me nash.. LOL J/K Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

985. CybrTeddy 23:32 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Is the EDT? And may I please have the link to that specific site? And what does IIRC stand for? EDT yes, right here.. scroll down to AL16 Link and IIRC = If I remember correctly. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

986. whepton3 23:33 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
What is the feeling about 96L picking up intensity between Cuba and S. FL... I'm a total novice at this and can't interpret the data. Member Since: 19 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637

987. PSLFLCaneVet 23:33 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: Fine...GFS? Shows the same thing. Levi, don't let some get you all riled up. You're a good man. Measured reactions, my friend. You have nothing to prove, to most here. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

988. presslord 23:33 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
; ) Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

989. BoyntonBeachFL 23:33 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Pressure 1004.8 mb Rain 0.35" Wind Gust to 36 mph in a squall around 6 p.m. Temperature 76 Dew Point 76 Humidity 100% And Tampa, The Yankees are winning!!! Member Since: 18 février 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 137

990. barotropic 23:34 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Bouys over 100 miles SW of the center and the caymans well SE of the center and the Bouy well east of the caymans.....ALL are reporting a pressure of 998mb with rather light winds. This is a VERY broad low. Member Since: 22 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652

991. Levi32 23:34 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Levi, don't let some get you all riled up. You're a good man. Measured reactions, my friend. You have nothing to prove, to most here. I'm not riled up. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 587 Comments: 25461

992. Patrap 23:34 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
GFS extended..shows trouble in the western Caribbean moving into the Central GOM.. But thats for nuther day... Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

993. Patrap 23:35 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

994. PSLFLCaneVet 23:35 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm not riled up. Sorry, then. Just concerned. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

995. OctaviaStreet 23:35 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting mississippiwx23: I am in Mt. Pleasant, SC...and I am fully expecting 8 inches in my raingauge. This will be my first tropical system in this area (wish I could change my user name!) so it will be interesting to see how the area takes such heavy rainfall. I'm afraid you're going to have to get used to people grinning and then saying, "They don't call it the low country for nothing!" We probably could have handled things fairly well but the downpours that hit yesterday just about saturated this sponge we call home. Maybe someone on here who also lives in Mt. Pleasant could give you better information on those areas more prone to flooding than others. Member Since: 16 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41

996. CaptnDan142 23:35 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Patrap: GFS extended..shows trouble in the western Caribbean moving into the Central GOM.. But thats for nuther day... Considering the past couple weeks with the GFS long range... Well, I don't think I'll run for Home Depot quite yet. Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

997. charlestonscnanny 23:36 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting K8eCane: ya got NORTH carolina and ya got SOUTH carolina Actually............you got north carolina and you got SOUTH CAROLINA, lol Member Since: 5 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

998. barotropic 23:36 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting Levi32: I'm not riled up. By the way I wanted to complement you a=on your informative video today. Thanks. Member Since: 22 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652

999. Hurricanes101 23:36 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142: Considering the past couple weeks with the GFS long range... Well, I don't think I'll run for Home Depot quite yet. GFS long range has actually been very good this season I would be weary of it showing a system Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1000. Patrap 23:36 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ANZ088-290300- CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY W. .WED...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR SW PART 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 1000 FM. SHOWERS AND TSTMS. .WED NIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT FAR W PART BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SW. SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY W. .THU...S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR W PART N TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPERING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. .THU NIGHT...S TO SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .FRI...S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT W PORTION BECOMING VARIABLE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT. .SAT...WINDS BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. $$ .FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111635

1001. stormy2008 23:36 GMT le 28 septembre 2010
Something tells me we may be looking at a system similar to last year's "November Nor'Easter"... or then again... this could be the 'new' perfect-storm. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 215

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