Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting kmanislander:


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowehre was above 1000 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.

Had a gust about 1/2 hr a go of 37 mph.

Quoting kmanislander:


MSLP ??. It was and has been sub 1000 mb over this entire area for about 9 hours continously now.

Hi, Just got a wind gust probably between 30-40mph, don't what your weather station might show.Just received a notice on my bb that schools will be open tomorrow, though all my sons are grown& out of school so it doesn't really affect me any. I wonder if they realize that it won't be really bad here until tomorrow from what I'm seeing!

Quoting bcycsailor:


Whoa! Wonder if there are straight-line winds in that? Can't distinguish any vorticity...yet. Stay safe.

So far, just another rainy nite! Hope it stays that way.

Quoting LakeWorthFinn:
Hi everybody, Lake Worth here, SE Palm Beach County, FL. Winds picking up, we've already had some minor flooding tonight.
I'm looking forward to a Fay or Ernesto-type storm, we need water badly :)
However, as nash wisely said, NOOA weather radios on alert mode for possible tornadoes. For those who are new here and think this will be no big deal (I hope they are right), I warmly recommend to be safe by listing to the advisories and please, do not drive on flooded roads. Remember that TS Fay killed people who didn't heed the warnings and either went surfing or drove their vehicles to flood areas thinking there was a road beneath their car and got stuck. It's not the wind that'll be the biggest threat, it's the rip currents and flooding when you can't see where the road is and you'll might get into trouble.
Stay safe and prepared, every storm is potentially dangerous, STD, TD or a named storm will spawn unexpected tornadoes more often than than not.
Thanks for all the great info you're posting on this blog :)

Your advice is great information as well. Thanks for your post. Rip-currents and rainfall driven flooding can result injuries and fatalities for those that don't respect conditions.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi, Just got a wind gust probably between 30-40mph, don't what your weather station might show.Just received a notice on my bb that schools will be open tomorrow, though all my sons are grown& out of school so it doesn't really affect me any. I wonder if they realize that it won't be really bad here until tomorrow from what I'm seeing!

I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.

Quoting kmanislander:


Recon traversed the entire area around these islands just about and nowehre was above 1000 mb yet we get a graphic showing a 1004 mb isobar passing through this area of the NW Caribbean. Sorry, but it doesn't add up.

I am looking at the entire isobar area. That is what it is depicting, the MSLP inside that oval.

Which, again, we agree, hard to believe it was 1004mb.

Recon in that area was at 1000 most of the time. And I question that as too high also... including when it was closest to GC. Was reporting 1000.7mb contrary to surface obs.

MAN .....! I gotta smile and shake my head at the stuff i read on this blogg.

Too bad my Anemomter went down during Hurricane Earl, I won't be able to get any wind readings.

Owen Roberts had a gust of 33 mph in the last hour

Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, that is about 150 miles east of the center, wind shear and the trough are keeping TD 16 discombobulated!!

Nice. discombobulated! =)
Thanks,

Quoting Proflaw:


Get real. Nobody drowns in flooded intersections in south Florida; the terrain is flatter than the proverbial pancake. To be sure water can get deep enough to kill your car's ECU, but not deep enough to drown anyone who isn't bent on suicide.

I've lived in south Dade for more than thirty years; I lived through 24 inches of rain from tropical storm Dennis in the early 80s, watched Andrew rip the roof off my house in 92, made it through the downpours of Irene, Katrina, and some nameless storms, and nobody, I repeat nobody, drowned in their car down here.

Overhyping a minor storm is just as bad as pooh-poohing a major hurricane. A poorly organized depression that may throw six inches of rain our way is a peace offering from the weather gods; when they want to kill, they know how to do it.

Yikes

Quoting kmanislander:


I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.

Well I guess 30mph was close enough LOL! Something just doesn't seem to be adding up with TD#16, though I suspect it will be Nicole at 11pm.

Kman has always been reasonable and some what reserved in his analysis so it bothers me when he says the things don't add up!

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
well borderline cat 2 i meant

Pfft. I'm not even convinced this will become a tropical storm. It may have such a weak temperature gradient that it never gets a name and just gets referred to as a coastal gale. It sure doesn't look very warm core right now.

Did they fly the mission at their normal altitude? Just wondering if maybe the surface pressures are interpolated, and the wrong flight altitude got entered?

Quoting kmanislander:


I heard the wind but my weather station is at the computer downstairs and I am upstairs right now. I did go and take a look but it was gusting to about 28 at that time.

From My guesstimate you're about 500-600feet from the sea, I'm about 200-250 feet at the most, can make a difference in wind gusts I think.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Well I guess 30mph was close enough LOL! Something just doesn't seem to be adding up with TD#16, though I suspect it will be Nicole at 11pm.

I'm downstairs now where my weather station is and winds have died down to about 13 mph out of the SE. Pressure at 999 mbs. Light rain.

1299. kmanhurricaneman 8:10 PM EST on September 28, 2010
i believe from analysing sat images there were three LLC's nhc has one targeted right that will be moving over cuba and into florida the other two has consolidated and is located just west of jamaica, this will be where nicole is born, movement will be to the east possible over jamaica then over the eastern most part of cuba over the T&C islands skirt the east coast of florida and into carolina's as a cat 2 hurricane, i hope iam wrong but thats my take. ps dont flame me or call me names I WILL RETALIATE....... thank you LOL

Quoting InTheCone:


So far, just another rainy nite! Hope it stays that way.

Hope so too. I just checked the Nexrad for St. Pete and all there seems to be is virga. Weird. Must be because of "the Shield" j/k

Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're advice is great information as well. Thanks for your post. Rip-currents and rainfall driven flooding can result injuries and fatalities for those that don't respect conditions.

Hi.
You and KerryinNola had asked about monsoonal stuff. A couple pages back I left you guys a quote from an earlier post by beell that has a link to a good explanation of monsoonal depression from Dr. Lyons. Hope you saw it.
:)

Quoting stormpetrol:

From My guesstimate you're about 500-600feet from the sea, I'm about 200-250 feet at the most, can make a difference in wind gusts I think.

Agree. In fact I am in a bit of a fall behind the beach ridge but my anemometer is on the top of a 35 foot high mast !

There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
1299. kmanhurricaneman 8:10 PM EST on September 28, 2010
i believe from analysing sat images there were three LLC's nhc has one targeted right that will be moving over cuba and into florida the other two has consolidated and is located just west of jamaica, this will be where nicole is born, movement will be to the east possible over jamaica then over the eastern most part of cuba over the T&C islands skirt the east coast of florida and into carolina's as a cat 2 hurricane, i hope iam wrong but thats my take. ps dont flame me or call me names I WILL RETALIATE....... thank you LOL

You might be right, I respect your analysis and opinion :O)!!

Going to be wet week here in Wilmington! Cheers for the rain, but boo for being a lake waiting to happen.

One of my concerns is that the storms this year have gone from almost dead or written off to organization in short period of times. That TD16 looks bad tonight, doesn't follow that it will look like that tomorrow afternoon.

Quoting CapeFearParke:
Going to be wet week here in Wilmington! Cheers for the rain, but boo for being a lake waiting to happen.

You may get another 5-15" of rain on top of the 13" you received already and some pretty good winds.

Quoting BahaHurican:
There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...

Just watching a news report that said that the Bahamas could be on the rainy side.

Hi by the way!

Maybe a bit disorganized, but this thing covers a huge area!

As broad lows go this takes the cake

Rain hampers rescue efforts in Mexican mudslide
Published: Tuesday, September 28, 2010, 6:43 PM Updated: Tuesday, September 28, 2010, 7:07 PM


People watch the badly damaged bridge that crosses the Macuilxochitl River near the town of Tlacolula, Mexico, on Tuesday. Rescuers trying to reach the town of Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec have been delayed because of the condition of the bridge. Authorities fear hundreds may have died in this community after a hillside collapsed, burying several homes.



A hillside collapsed on hundreds of sleeping residents in a rural Mexican community early Tuesday, adding to the deadly toll that weeks of heavy rains have exacted on parts of Latin America.
Rescuers trying to reach the town of Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec have been delayed because of the condition of the bridge. Authorities fear hundreds may have died in this community after a hillside collapsed, burying several homes.

Authorities in the town of Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec said seven people were killed in the mudslide and at least 100 were missing, but the leader of their state, Oaxaca Gov. Ulises Ruiz, reported four confirmed dead and 12 missing.

President Felipe Calderon reported on his Twitter account that an Army commander and 30 soldiers had reached the town by foot and that there was a lot of damage, but "perhaps not of the magnitude initially reported."

"We are very saddened by this tragedy, very sad but very determined to do everything in God's power to save the victims who are alive in this landslide and to help the people of Santa Maria," Calderon told reporters.

Communications with the town about 130 miles (220 kilometers) southeast of Mexico City have been difficult since the pre-dawn slide. Soldiers and civil protection and Red Cross workers couldn't reach the area for nearly 10 hours because mud and rocks and in one case a collapsed bridge blocked roads, and bad weather prevented helicopters from being used.

Donato Vargas, an official in Santa Maria de Tlahuitoltepec reached by a satellite telephone, said as many as 300 homes were believed to buried, and residents who made it out early in the morning said they had no success digging out their neighbors.

"We have been using a backhoe but there is a lot of mud. We can't even see the homes, we can't hear shouts, we can't hear anything," he said.

Vargas said the slide dragged houses packed with sleeping families some 1,300 feet (400 meters) downhill, along with cars, livestock and light poles.

"We were all sleeping and all I heard was a loud noise and when I left the house I saw that the hill had fallen," Vargas said. "We were left without electricity, without telephone and we couldn't help them. There was no way to move the mud."

One person was reported killed in a mudslide in another Oaxaca community, Villa Hidalgo, and 30 people were killed Monday in a slide in Colombia. Heavy rains, including some delivered by the remnants of Hurricane Karl and then Tropical Storm Matthew, also have produced deadly floods in southern Mexico and Central America.

Oaxaca Civil Protection operations coordinator Luis Marin said the state has seen three days straight of intense rain. The state government had warned residents south of the city of Oaxaca of flooding from overflowing rivers and opened shelters in other parts of the state.

Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, which had 9,000 residents in 2005 according to Mexican census data, is an indigenous community high in the Sierra Norte mountains known for its music and culture.

Vargas said there is another hill about to give way in another area of town.

"We are in a serious risk situation," Vargas said. "In all of our neighborhoods there are houses and roads cracked and about to fall."

Huge swaths of riverside communities in southern Mexico were still under water Tuesday -- flooding exacerbated by the passage of Karl and Matthew. Before Tuesday's landslides, at least 15 deaths in Mexico were blamed on the hurricane.

In Honduras, authorities said four people, including a child, drowned in rivers and creeks swollen by Tropical Storm Matthew. The National Emergencies Commission said Tuesday that three adults died in the town of El Oregano and a 10-year-old child in the Caribbean coast town of La Lima.

In Colombia, about 30 people were killed Monday by a landslide northwest of Bogota, the capital. Many were changing from one bus to another because a mountain road was blocked, but the residents of five houses also were buried, rescue officials said.

President Juan Manuel Santos visited the scene Tuesday between the towns of Giraldo and Canasgordas in Antioquia state, northwest of Bogota. "The situation is very difficult," he told reporters as rescue teams with sniffer dogs probed tons of earth.

Witnesses described a roar as first rocks and then earth swept over the road Monday afternoon. Amateur video shows the slide bearing down and scouring away the houses.

Heavy rains in recent weeks across Colombia have triggered flooding that has claimed at least 74 lives.

By Ixtili Martinez, Associated Press writer

The main point I was trying to make was that too many just take what is presented as fact without question (not directed at you, but everyone). When something doesn't seem right, check it out.

As soon as you posted the oddity that your pressures were lower than the coc, that set off an alarm. I checked recon and, sure enough, they were 2mb higher at GC at the same time.

Then I calibrate and it makes sense.

Quoting BahaHurican:
There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...

Oh, the Bahamas are gonna get PLENTY of rain, don't worry, the main rain shield from TD 16 or STS/TS Nicole will get you real good!!

Quoting Bordonaro:

You may get another 5-15" of rain on top of the 13" you received already and some pretty good winds.

Ya, the ground is already pretty saturated. I've got myself a little coy-pond already going in the back yard.

Hopefully it'll move quickly. If not it might be a long night. Good thing I've got the 4x4 and boat ready to go.

we guys are getting very strong winds now I was outside on the porch sitting in the chair and the wind just blew me right off and it has been sustained for about 4-5 minutes I expect more for the rest of the night and morning oh yea and pressures are still at 998.4mbs

Quoting CapeFearParke:


Ya, the ground is already pretty saturated. I've got myself a little coy-pond already going in the back yard.

Hopefully it'll move quickly. If not it might be a long night. Good thing I've got the 4x4 and boat ready to go.

Be prepared for some pretty nasty flash flooding or flooding period. Stay safe and keep us informed as the remnants of TD 16 hammer NC.

Quoting Seastep:
The main point I was trying to make was that too many just take what is presented as fact without question (not directed at you, but everyone). When something doesn't seem right, check it out.

As soon as you posted the oddity that your pressures were lower than the coc, that set off an alarm. I checked recon and, sure enough, they were 2mb higher at GC at the same time.

Then I calibrate and it makes sense.

I take your point. There is always a danger in taking everything you see online as the gospel. This TD has proven that all is not necessarily what it seems. Even now we have a surface pressure for a 50 mph TS ( 999 mb ) yet winds are 7 mph out of the SE !

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The word is they banned that troublemaker anyotherliestotell permanently. He was causing a great deal of negativity on the blog.

He'll be back. As long as he can cause negativity he will reappear. Unless and until this blog learns to truly ignore which based on climatology isn't very probable the troll plague will persist.

Quoting BahaHurican:
There doesn't seem to be much expectation of rain for the Bahamas. It's like we r not even here, based on the discussion...

LOL...you'll get plenty.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I read it. Thanks!

YW.

Everyone in the path of this strange storm, stay safe!

So how many retirements are we looking at?

Alex (possible)
Earl (possible)
Igor (obvious)
Karl (likely)
Matthew (likely)

The damage has been mostly outside the USA, but this has really been quite a season overall.

Quoting kmanislander:


I take your point. There is always a danger in taking everything you see online as the gospel. This TD has proven that all is not necessarily what it seems. Even now we have a surface pressure for a 50 mph TS ( 999 mb ) yet winds are 7 mph out of the SE !

The joys of the oversized monsoonal Low pressure area called TD 16!!

Quoting zoomiami:
One of my concerns is that the storms this year have gone from almost dead or written off to organization in short period of times. That TD16 looks bad tonight, doesn't follow that it will look like that tomorrow afternoon.

While I agree that it has been a very active season, my biggest concern is that the general public does not view it the same as most of us on the blog.

Not wanting anyone to get hit with a major, however with all of the doom and gloom that was predicted this year for U.S. land falling hurricanes, the level of complacency is guaranteed to rise within the general public.

This could be the worst thing that comes out of this season!

Chuck

LOL. My weather station says it is raining cats and dogs and so it is LMAO

Quoting Bordonaro:

Be prepared for some pretty nasty flash flooding or flooding period. Stay safe and keep us informed as the remnants of TD 16 hammer NC.

10-4 on that. I'll post updates and pics if the water starts creeping. Cheers.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we guys are getting very strong winds now I was outside on the porch sitting in the chair and the wind just blew me right off and it has been sustained for about 4-5 minutes I expect more for the rest of the night and morning oh yea and pressures are still at 998.4mbs

wunderkid where are u located in cayman?