Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:23 GMT le 30 septembre 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.

Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.

Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)

Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.

Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)

Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!

Categories: Flood Tornado Hurricane

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601. reedzone 20:20 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting rmbjoe1954: Thanks Reed, yikes! No Joe, that's an impostor. I wouldn't do anything like that. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

602. Tazmanian 20:20 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting rmbjoe1954: Thanks Reed, yikes! thats not are reedzone that is a impostor posting in his name Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

604. MarathonZiggy 20:21 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting will40: Son i was here i know what happened. Dennis saturated the area . Floyd damage would not have been as bad if Dennis had not arrived just before Read this to settle the discussion.... Link Member Since: 6 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26

606. weaverwxman 20:22 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
hey reed I just realized it wasn't you but it was very amusing to me.... Member Since: 17 novembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

609. HarleyStormDude52 20:22 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting reedzone: That's not me The "other" reed's comments were finally removed... Back to the weather Member Since: 8 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345

615. Stormchaser2007 20:23 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
JFV needs to get a life. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

617. largeeyes 20:24 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
I like the new reed Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

619. K8eCane 20:25 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: It's fall. Well break it on out again come spring ;) Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375

620. HarleyStormDude52 20:25 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
yep.. and it look like admin may have gotten him/her!!! Member Since: 8 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345

621. Seflhurricane 20:25 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting reedzone: Don't worry, I'm the REAL "Reedzone" also known as Allan C. Reed. Jr. A 21 year old who has a job and a life ;) relax i know who is who maybe if people on here would look at the membership date on the bottom of the posts we would not be wasting time with idiots Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

622. JRRP 20:25 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: JFV needs to get a life. lol Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4314

623. stormpetrol 20:26 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I'm enjoying the Levi and Drak discussion which I find very informative, but just as soon as the blog became completely weather related and informative, Mr. Reeedzone showed up. Bleh. Time to get the popcorn and Dr. Pepper... I'm gonna settle for a cold Coors Light, LMAO. Bad for someone to do that to Reed though, as for Drak and Levi, probably the 2 most knowledgable here as far as weather is concerned, kinda disappointing to see it becoming so competitive and personal, like I wrote earlier " a rose by any other name is still a rose" Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

625. KeysieLife 20:26 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting reedzone: Don't worry, I'm the REAL "Reedzone" also known as Allan C. Reed. Jr. A 21 year old who has a job and a life ;) Reed, we know who your are, you don't need to feed into it. THERE IS ONLY ONE, REED MODEL! =) Member Since: 10 septembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 359

626. johnnyascat 20:26 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting reedzone: No Joe, that's an impostor. I wouldn't do anything like that. Not only did an account have to be set up, but a mandatory 12 hour waiting period must have been met before that post was made. Reed, no disrespect intended, but I am still ROFLMAO at that imposter post. Lighten up a little and Reed it. We all know it is a fake, but a very clever and funny one, too. :D Member Since: 15 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 64

628. Jax82 20:27 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
What a circus! Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

629. myway 20:27 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting reeedzone: Get rid of this imposter! I remember when they were doing this to CCHS and it almost drove him away! An old timer are you? Member Since: 28 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 442

630. CaribBoy 20:27 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
No updated images SINCE 11.15AM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: 6 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2853

631. Tazmanian 20:27 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: nop they did not I take back what i said Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

634. sebastianflorida 20:29 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting Patrap: Otay... Ill go to confession right now. Any chance that snow will fall in Florida from 97L? Member Since: 5 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 509

635. weatherwatcher12 20:29 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting CaribBoy: No updated images SINCE 11.15AM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Use NASA's imagery then. Link Member Since: 16 mai 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

640. BobinTampa 20:32 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting GoodOleBudSir: BobInTampa, WU Mail back at you sir. Member Since: 14 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

641. DontAnnoyMe 20:32 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting weatherwart: A pine uprooted? Now that some saturated ground. It's usually the oaks and laurels that get uprooted. The pines snap off. On the contrary, pines have very shallow roots, and they will go down easily without wind. They do snap in ice storms. The others, which have deep roots, go down in wind because of all their leaves. Member Since: 21 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

642. JupiterFL 20:32 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting johnnyascat: Not only did an account have to be set up, but a mandatory 12 hour waiting period must have been met before that post was made. Reed, no disrespect intended, but I am still ROFLMAO at that imposter post. Lighten up a little and Reed it. We all know it is a fake, but a very clever and funny one, too. :D This is actually an older trick around here. It used to happen all the time but not as much anymore. You better watch that there isn't a Johnnyasscat out there. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

644. Tazmanian 20:33 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1050 AM PDT THU SEP 30 2010 SUNDAY LOOKS COOL REGION-WIDE WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND. THE GFS RUNS BUILD A RIDGE BEHIND THIS WITH A CLASSIC AUTUMNAL OFFSHORE WIND FLOW PATTERN LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE LAST TWO EURO RUNS CUT THE TROUGH OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEMS OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BLOCK THE WESTERLIES. WILL SEE HOW THE 12Z SOLUTIONS LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES. Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

646. Bordonaro 20:35 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Any idea if the remnant energy in the Caribbean will develop into another tropical system?? Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

647. Neapolitan 20:35 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Looking good, no? 1945z (50 minutes ago): Click for larger image: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

648. MiamiHurricanes09 20:36 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: why not YOU GO A WAY Taz, please stop quoting him. He's on the majority of our ignore lists and quoting and responding to him will just continue to cause havoc. Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

649. hydrus 20:36 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting sebastianflorida: Any chance that snow will fall in Florida from 97L? Yes...I am shipping in some fresh stuff from McKinley and tossing it off the Bank of America tower in Miami while 97L spins feverishly over the peninsula...pffffft. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14305

650. stormpetrol 20:37 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: I may be a bit dense, but isn't there a filter that prevents more than one person to use the same 'handle'? Just an additional alphabet is all you need, ie the real Reed, Reedzone, imposter Reeedzone Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

651. GrillinInTheEye 20:37 GMT le 30 septembre 2010
Jupiter, glad to see you made it home. How ya been. Member Since: 12 septembre 2010 Posts: 70 Comments: 10816

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