Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:23 GMT le 30 septembre 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.

Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.

Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.

Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset. (bethinking)

Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.

Hooray for the power company! (AnnaThomas)

Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!

Categories: Flood Tornado Hurricane

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1901. Eugeniopr 13:38 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting weatherguy03: Tropical Update Oct. 1st. 2010 Hey Bob, as always very good. Thank you and we will be alert but I am bulllish on 97 Member Since: 1 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 229

1902. Orcasystems 13:38 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Complete Update 97L - what can you say... at least the models are not showing a CAT 3 anymore like last night. AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1903. Neapolitan 13:38 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Cotillion: I agree to most of that, Nea, except three points: Good morning, Cotillion. Good points, yours. Please allow me to respond to them one by one: a) You know as well as I do that an active September is no guarantee of an active October. It's already one for the record books, no question, but I'd hold the 20 storm prediction as fact for longer, yet. You are absolutely correct that a busy September doesn't guarantee a busy October. In fact, the opposite could be said, at least for the past 15 seasons: of the two years with eight September storms, one had but a single October storm, and the other had exactly zero. (And the two seasons with seven September storms only managed to squeeze out five named storms in total.) But as has often been pointed out, there are few if any indications that this year is similar to those. To begin with, SSTs are still at or near record highs...and while that alone won't drive cyclogenesis, it certainly helps. Yes, it's possible borderline, short-lived Nicole may have been it for the year. But I am seriously doubting that possibility. b.) I'm not aware of who has been stating that this season is a bust for a considerable time. Perhaps as I am not here for the evening shifts as it is called, that I've missed those declarations. I've followed the narrative of the season pretty closely, and am always amused at those--and I see them here every day, including this morning--who consistently narrow their definition of what constitutes a "non-busted season". Originally it was raw storm numbers; that morphed into CONUS hits, which in turn morphed into devastating CONUS hits. IOW, a record busy period, with multiple deaths and billions of dollars in damage outside the US, aren't enough. (Extrapolating, I'd guess that many of these folks would say that only a Cat 4 coming through their own city would be enough to allow them to remove the "bust" label...though even a few might then say, "Yes, the storm hit our city, but the eyewall missed my house, so BUST!!!") c.) There is always the risk of becoming just as absolute on the argument as the counter side. The discussion on here seems to boil down to 'it's really active!' vs 'it's a bust!' without any thought to the middle. Well, in this case, the absolutes seem to be on the side of the "active" season folks, don't they? Based on most expert early predictions of a very active to hyperactive year, this season hasn't disappointed. Anyone saying otherwise is simply ignoring fact. It is active yes, but how active? Is it really as hyperactive as it looks on face value? I've not commented much on your many postings suggesting that the reason things look so busy these last few decades is due in very large part to pre-satellite undercounts of marginal storms. You may be right (though I also believe there may have been early overcounts, where, say, a CV-type storm noticed in the Windward Islands was counted as a separate entity a week later when it made landfall in Texas)--but even if you are, there's no doubt that the tropics this year, and in 2005, and in 1995, and so on, have been more active than "normal", however one defines that term. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

1904. ShenValleyFlyFish 13:43 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Ummm our Beer :) Ah yes, all is forgiven. Wisers covers for whatever the beer missed. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1906. utilaeastwind 13:53 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Looks like there is some tight vorticity moving along the north coast of Honduras at 16N 85W Member Since: 12 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192

1907. CyclonicVoyage 13:53 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane: Ahhh did you have too?!! Enjoying the transquil fall chill in the air before this post. lol Gosh, let's hope not. Floyd was BAD Very refreshing here in SEFL this morning too, almost went in to the office late and hung out at the beach for an hour. Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1908. ShenValleyFlyFish 13:54 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting NotCircumventing: Awesome ... I logged into Debate Class. Hey it's better than 5:00 pm EST(daylight savings) Troll Central. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1909. Neapolitan 13:58 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting NotCircumventing: Awesome ... I logged into Debate Class. You're welcome. There's no tuition, though I'm sorry to say no course credit can or will be offered. ;-) Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

1910. breald 14:02 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: You're welcome. There's no tuition, though I'm sorry to say no course credit can or will be offered. ;-) LOL. Member Since: 28 mai 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

1911. Stormchaser2007 14:04 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Yesterday's CMC Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1912. Lauderdalecanuck 14:06 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
As a fellow Canadian, I would have to agree. Quoting Orcasystems: Umm thats one of the reasons :) Most Canadians... and I would assume most of the Islanders down south will be backing the European Team, because of our background and culture. Member Since: 31 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

1913. afj3 14:07 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Yesterday's CMC Is it me or is the CMC overshooting intensity for 97L? Plus it is curving it out in the ocean now.... Member Since: 10 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 337

1914. Floodman 14:10 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
New Blog Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1915. JupiterFL 14:11 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Ryder Cup weather forecast Detailed Local Forecast * Today: Periods of rain. High 57F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70%. * Tonight: A few clouds. Low 44F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. * Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies. High 61F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. * Tomorrow night: Cloudy with occasional rain after midnight. Low around 50F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%. * Sunday: Periods of heavy rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 50s. * Monday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 40s. * Tuesday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 40s. Looks miserable for golf. Bubba Watson looked like a drowned rat this morning. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1916. Rainwalker 14:23 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
I would say that an hyperactive season is one with a ACE of 200 or more, with 15 or more storms. And no it does not have to have any cat 5's and no it does not have to hit the US, and no it does not have to cause any deaths. Just my 2 cents. Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55

1917. sailingallover 14:39 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Looking at all the forecast charts I cannot see why 97 will not be at least a storm right over me by Mon/Tues but the GFS is still not developing it. Why? Every single forecast chart is positive for development as soon as the ULL moves away and the GFS is forecasting that Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

1918. MrNatural 14:43 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting sailingallover: Looking at all the forecast charts I cannot see why 97 will not be at least a storm right over me by Mon/Tues but the GFS is still not developing it. Why? Every single forecast chart is positive for development as soon as the ULL moves away and the GFS is forecasting that The forward motion of this storm is very slow. This slow forward motion leaves the ultimate path up for debate. Member Since: 28 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 194

1919. sailingallover 14:46 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Huge line of ARC clouds East of 97.. Collapsing thunderstorms... Maybe the Upper mid level high is Capping it rather than providing outflow? Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

1920. sailingallover 14:48 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting MrNatural: The forward motion of this storm is very slow. This slow forward motion leaves the ultimate path up for debate. 15-20 is not slow The path is up for debate until/if it develops. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

1921. sailingallover 15:25 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
SST's are warm under 97 but TCHP is not all that high... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010273at.jpg Member Since: 1 septembre 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 982

1922. MrNatural 15:32 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting sailingallover: 15-20 is not slow The path is up for debate until/if it develops. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. I guess I could clarify my comments. Invest 97 is expected to slow down. This slow down will have a bearing on development and path. I'm still on the fence if this thing will really develop. The influence of that big ULL will have a major bearing on the future of this storm. Member Since: 28 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 194

1923. jonelu 17:56 GMT le 01 octobre 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Complete Update 97L - what can you say... at least the models are not showing a CAT 3 anymore like last night. AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI The models showed a Cat4 or 5 hitting FL for close to a week prior and during Matthew and Nicole...and look at what we got....nada. They have there uses...but I put FAR less credence in them now. Member Since: 31 octobre 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882

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