Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19:42 GMT le 13 octobre 2010

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Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.

Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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What a difference a day year makes:

According to HAMweather, over the past four days, the CONUS has seen 1,132 record highs (or high minimums), and just 36 record lows (or low maximums). By comparison, last year many of the areas now seeing those record highs were instead digging out from under various record snow events, and/or just getting ready for others.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13792
Somewhere I was reading the possibility of Richard in four to five days.
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GFS starts developing another Caribbean system in a reasonable timeframe (monday)

By Wednesday, its a full fledged hurricane.


So does the NOGAPS
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
morning
low pressure northwest of panama. the seedling for the development of Richard, in a few days time
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Good morning, everyone. A beautiful 65 degrees here.
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I don't see Paula staying over Cuba so long I think she'll re-emerge into the Caribbean. However conditions aren't really Ideal there either If the shear and dry air can get out by sun-mon she might survive to make another go
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Have we watched this yet?

Developing storm at the pacific
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 140859
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
SHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
TRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING
THIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
NORTH AND WEST OF PAULA. THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA
TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE
GFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
PAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.3N 84.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 140857
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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The ECMWF has remnants of Paula in the Bahamas and then incorporated in the Nor'easter planned for this weekend to crush Down East.
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Someone went "H" happy on this weather map :OP


And Poofy Paula putzing NE at 3 MPH


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694. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Megi (994 hPa) located at 12.6N 139.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.5N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.3N 132.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.5N 128.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
08:30 AM IST October 14 2010
==================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Bay Of Bengal

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB03-2010 over east central and adjoining northwest and west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 18.0N 88.5E, or about 550 kms east of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 430 kms southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 400 kms south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal).

The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by Friday evening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal to the north of 13.5N and west of 91.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear of horizontal wind prevails over the region. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 22.0N. As a result easterly/east southeasterly wind of about 30 knots prevail on the region at 200 HPA. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence around the system center is also favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature (28-32C), and the ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, Ocean Heat Content is less and not favorable over north Bay of Bengal. Similarly the ocean heat content is relatively less over the sea area adjoining south Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh coast.
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Quoting aspectre:
Running on pure "I think I can..."
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8mph(~12.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb - - mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A

Copy &paste 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, cun, pbi, mbj, 22.2n85.2w-26.63n82.13w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~44hours from now to PineIslandCenter,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Meanwhile, NHC is wishcasting "...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA..." when H.Paula would hafta make a ~100degrees turn to the SouthSouthEast for its center to hit the western tip.

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Interesting! Now all of the models forcast Paula to recurve. The question is will she survive the strong shear and passage over land and make it back over water alive?
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Running on pure "I think I can..."
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8mph(~12.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A

Copy &paste 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, cun, pbi, mbj, 22.2n85.2w-26.63n82.13w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~44hours from now to PineIslandCenter,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Meanwhile, NHC is wishcasting "...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA..." when H.Paula would hafta make a ~100degree turn to the SouthSouthEast for its center to hit the western tip.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Peculiar Paula, persistent, petite, putzing patiently, puffing profusely,pint-sized, pffft. Paula!

Nice Post!!!
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Maybe one Bud to many sorry Bord, I know your are one of the good guys on this blog. I also like your weather out looks as opposed to many who can't seem to remember all the times the are wrong.Seriously have a good night and thank God for all the safe return of the Chilean miners and their rescuers. Peace out ain't afraid of no Paula!! Signed, Ghost Busters.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.

Poofing Paula
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Quoting gordydunnot:
dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.

Lighten up it is all good, it was meant as a dry joke :oP
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dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
This goes out to Bordonaro for post #679Link

No, I work an 8 hr a day job and blog on Weather Underground quite a bit. Oh, yeah, I eat 3 times a day and sleep about 7 hrs a night. I don't have too much time on my hands :O)
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This goes out to Bordonaro for post #679Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I say e - drift along the N Cuban coast, across the Bahamas, and out to sea, based on the current WV imagery which suggests that Paula will stay far enough N to get shoved east ahead of the trough that's dropping down pretty rapidly across the central US right now...


Agreed completely.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Storm starting to make Marco look big.


lol
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I say e - drift along the N Cuban coast, across the Bahamas, and out to sea, based on the current WV imagery which suggests that Paula will stay far enough N to get shoved east ahead of the trough that's dropping down pretty rapidly across the central US right now...
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Peculiar Paula, persistent, petite, putzing patiently, puffing profusely,pint-sized, pffft. Paula!
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Poll: Paula's future

A) Die as soon as it touches cuba
B) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensify
C) Die slowly over cuba
D) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated area
E) Other (explain)

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Storm starting to make Marco look big.
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Forget the white Christmas baby we are talking mocha now.
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Still fairly intact, per the la bajada radar, though.

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674. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:
core actually looking better compared to an hour ago........



At 1am the eye looked great, not so much right now. XD
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I don't think Paula's done quite yet. If she stays strong enough to ride along the Cuban coast rather than the centre going across the SW mountains, I think the current forecast of no demise before Friday will likely pan out. I'm very interested to see if we will see that Sward move towards the Cuban coast, but I think Levi's thinking about Paula going further north than the concensus implies is relatively plausible.
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Quoting Grothar:


Apple pie for me this holiday!!!!! Thanks alot Orca. Just woke up the house laughing. I'd roll on the floor, but no one to pick me up.
I've learned to stay away from the comments section of Orca's blog... it can be hazardous 2 ur health.... lol
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Geoff, since you were a nice guy and posted these for us, I got something for you.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The good old days. Thanks. Don't know how you find these.
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Just when Paula was written off by many, has put on a pretty nice convective burst to stay alive...... for now!
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Should be under wu hof!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm is that good?
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666. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon wasn't scheduled for tonight. Maybe 14th at 12Z, that's the next task.
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core actually looking better compared to an hour ago........

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here's something to hope for Grothar:



Thanks, Geoff, this is the beginning of the movie (One of my favorites from my youth, my first yourth,that is), have the last scene with Rosemary Clooney?
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Quoting swflurker:
Your blog is the bomb!


Umm is that good?
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Poor Paula. She is trying for one last burst. Did they cancel Recon?
Member Since: 22 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm watch should be dropped within the next two updates.


Think Paula will do a loop in the Carribean and start all over again. Come on Geoff, give us something to hope for. We can't keeping blogging about nothing. After all, this is a weather blog, not "Does WU Have Talent"
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659. JLPR2
Paula is fighting to stay with us a little longer.
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Good night TS. Nolan Ryan sends his regards.
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