Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.
Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.
The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can you imagine if Otto outlasts Paula? lol.
That would be something.
What's the record for longest storm?
ATCF updated Otto's file a few hours ago; he's a 35-knot, 1005 mb extratropical low at 35.9N/22.3W (he was at 43.5N / 26.3W just two days ago).
They're just keeping us informed...
ATCF files indicate that Nicole was a TS for much longer than we thought.
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 830W, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 826W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092900, , BEST, 0, 215N, 821W, 35, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092906, , BEST, 0, 217N, 815W, 35, 997, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 300, 0, 1003, 375, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 219N, 809W, 35, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 300, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 806W, 35, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NICOLE, D,
AL, 16, 2010093000, , BEST, 0, 250N, 802W, 35, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 264N, 796W, 35, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 300, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NICOLE, D,
Nicole has higher ACE than what is shown on wiki.
NHC Mission Statement
The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analysis of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.
NHC Mission and Vision
Radar says differently. She is actually holding up pretty good right now. More round and better outflow to the N than a few hours ago.
I think she's holding on and will still be a Hurricane at the 8pm.
Yeah, some of us were discussing the changes last week. Instead of one TWO as a TS, there are now seven. But we can't trust that; it's just the evildoers at the NHC trying to cover their tracks... :-)
A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE.
Now this is CLASSIC Avila.... I knew the moment I read that sentence he had to have written the discussion.... lol
True, true. Gotta love it.
Not to trend off topic, but the added STS-135 to add supplies to the International Space Station. Plus, your forgetting the fact they approved a replacement for the space shuttle, and that replacement could be ready for test flights in 2013-2014.
Now back to Hurricanes.
Paula's circulation is starting to become exposed it appears.
No, it's not a weakening Paula. This was one of the stages of the extratropical remnant convection of TS Agatha back in June 2010.
Tropical Storm Megi, despite the not-so-ominous-sounding name, needs to be watched VERY closely. It could threaten much of the northern Philippines, southern China and Vietnam.
Nope, that was Invest 91L in June 2010.
At this point, according to the latest run, we're up to the 'T' named storm.
I love how sometimes very powerful hurricanes have not so powerful names.
Like Earl for example.
Funny enough, we all predicted Igor would be a monster, and sure enough he was.
Ya'all are giving me a hard time and KerryinNOLA is talking about tea bagging... Geez.
Now that's funny...
its a shame Lionrock couldnt amount to much haha
Location: 21.7°N 85.6°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
................................................
...SMALL PAULA INCHING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 13
Location: 21.8°N 85.6°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
.............................................
Not moving much won't help you avoid the sheer heading toward you Paula.
Then we had 92L. I'm pretty sure MANY, MANY people will agree that that was 01L at one point, and probably Alex.
Three hours... .1 North?
Wow...
Fast mover huh...
Paula is definitely getting pounded by shear.
Fixing to get her hair cut.
Like clockwork...the shear taking over the northern GOM.....70 knots of shear.
They can't all be named LIONROCK...
Think 70 kts ought to do it?
Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)
Oct 13 Tonight
Mostly cloudy skies this evening. A few showers developing late. Thunder possible. Low 72F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 14 Tomorrow
Showers early then thundershowers developing later in the day. High 82F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Oct 14 Tomorrow night
Showers and thundershowers likely in the evening with a shower or two possible overnight. Low 69F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Oct 15 Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Oct 16 Saturday
A few morning showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Oct 17 Sunday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Oct 18 Monday
Chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 19 Tuesday
Scattered showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 20 Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 21 Thursday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 22 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Yes.......
Interesting season. I would have bet my paycheck the lower 48 would have had a major one hit somewhere in 2010.
Amazing that out of 16 storms...quite a few hurricanes and several majors...that nothing did.
Flooding was the bigger issue in 2010 for the USA, with tropical systems.
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