September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe
September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.
U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.
La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.
Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.
September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.
New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.
Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Morning Ike!
Barely see you over there for all the dust!!
Please Send Rain Stat!!
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...N WINDS INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WILL SUN.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W.
...........................................
I see little to no rain for the next 7-10 days.
And good morning CI.
Posted on Thu, 10/14/2010 - 19:39 in Headline News
(CNS): Proposals for a possible wind farm in East End have been stopped in its tracks as a result of the government’s plans to erect a Doppler radar in the same area.The Doppler radar will give our National Weather Service more accurate, timely and real-time information,” the ministry stated , adding that it will serve the entire Caribbean, filling a gap in the recently implemented regional radar network coverage.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
I wish the weather would get stuck right where it's at here.
I was seriously thinking about doing mine this morning. Last time for the season. Perfect weather to mow.
A mighty fine morning we are having here.
rofl.. Ike don't even start in on the 2011 season! LOL Don't want to hear it!
I agree, we are now having great weather down here.. lows into upper 60's at night, good sleeping weather..and highs in low-mid 80's in day. Warm enough to enjoy water if we want and to be outside, but not suffering hot and humid.
of course, we have to mow our yards all year round down here..sometimes in the coldest part of the winter we can skip a week but cannot skip 2 weeks in a row or grass will be too high.... our lawns do not really go dorment down here.
OK, busy at work just wanted to pop in and say Hello!
Dr Masters will ocassionally post the El Nino, La Nina, & Netural table for past 15 years. From my memory, we only went La Nina --> La Nina once and the rest of the time we went Neutral after a La Nina year. From your exclamation point, are you saying that 2011 will make 2010 look like 2009?
We lucked out with the heat waves over the Eastern US & Western Russia. All that hot dry air rose over the CONUS & Russia and ended up sinking over the Atlantic Basin. This put things on ice during early part of hurricane season. I don't see another Russian heat wave like that for awhile. I say we have a more active beginning of hurricane season next year.
It is doubtful the truth is being told!
Shame on you DrMasters for buying into their fantasies without a caveat!
That "winding down" seems to happen every year--on average, around September 11. Hardly newsworthy, if you ask me... ;-)
With La Nina persisting into next spring, with abundant heat across the MDR (including 95% of the GOM), with a low-shear environment in most places, with six weeks left in the calendar season, and so on...I fully expect to see two more storms at the very least, and as many as six more. That's not to say all or even any will affect the CONUS or any land areas; I'm talking just about the generation of named storms.
I think you mean "least" lol
As for the grass down here, sorry but again I will disagree with you. unless we get a semi-prolonged heat wave with precip the grass (same to similar St. Augustine as throughout the State) will begin to come to a very slow growth rate...and if we get anywhere near the temps of last winter, growth will stop just like it does in Central and North Fla. And as far as cutting frequency, unless you like to waste your gas, time, and money, there is NO reason to cut your grass any more often than every two weeks, unless we have the aforementioned heat wave with precip, it just won't do that much growing...and if you would like to challenge my horticulture degree, bring it on :)
Key West Weather
THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS ALSO ILLUSTRATE AUTUMN BIRD
MIGRATION WITH SPLENDOR. THE 25-30 DBZ ECHOES SUGGEST OVER 10000
BIRDS PER MILE ARE FLYING SOUTHWARD TO THEIR WINTER HABITATS...
ACCORDING TO RADAR ORNITHOLOGY STUDIES.
Want a caveat? Okay. Would something like the following work for you?:
"While the overwhelming majority of credible atmospheric scientists are looking at the overwhelming data and concluding that AGW is real and perhaps worsening at a greater rate than initially believed possible, many non-scientists, Big Energy CEOs, and anti-science politicians believe the entire thing is a hoax perpetrated by evil forces bent on preserving the planet."
How's that? ;-)
Another baseless, last-ditch attempt by contrarians to "disprove" the AGW theory.
One NOAA satellite was found to be making erroneous temperature measurements that were both too high and too low. As soon as this was found out, NOAA removed all that satellite's measurements from the record. The record still shows runaway global warming...yet contrarians to science insist the broken thermometer discredits the entire theory of climate change.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Doesn't Naples have at least a few of nationally known comedians living there during the winter. It sure must, because what you just wrote is so hilarious. Good job, I need something to lighten my day.
Lets be serious for a moment though. We know that the data is being fudged daily and that the fudging is spreading throughout the data analysis system. We all know that allowing politics into any scientific system muddies everything.
Finally, lets be real here.
'Preserving the Planet'???
This issue is about MONEY for a few aristocrats.
Bonnie and Colin are two examples of shameless wishcasting by the establishment bent on making certain that the dire predictions of a few politically driven 'former' scientists will come true. They lost the 'scientist' designation when they fell head over heels to the dark side and shamelessly blended political bias into the world of meteorology.
If I came to you and said that I had performed comprehensive research into the safety and effectiveness of drugs manufactured by Eli Lily and declared them all to be safe for human consumption, you might want to believe me. Then if you were to discover that the research had been paid for by that same company, you would all look at me and start shaking your heads and accuse me of bias in my findings.
With as much money as there is flowing into the meteorological industry today from outside sources, it is obvious that the world of meteorology is being subverted into a political/financial tool.
We have got to get back to being true scientists like we once were. Political commentary interspersed with meteorological observations spell trouble for what is supposed to be unbiased scientific endeavors.
Wishcasting and Fishcasting are simply different sides to the same coin. Some see the patterns and see nothing but bad weather ahead and others see the same patterns and say it suggests that the weather is all sunshine. Both of those observations are biased to some extent and to ridicule either side for having a political bias is proof positive of how far from 'scientific', the world of meteorology has strayed.
Lets go back to being unbiased scientists and stop ridiculing each other because we see things differently from each other. Those differences are part of the process that helps us learn how to better observe and then predict the weather.
v/r
Moe
The eye is located right at the 130˚E line.
It's the dreaded pinhole.
"The strongest storm of the season by far was Hurricane Igor, which was originally thought to have peaked as a strong Category 4, but post-storm analysis revealed it had reached Category 5 status with winds of 160mph."
That's what the 2010 season article said.
That's quite an improvement belizeit.
This will save lives.
You should be proud.
I don't know how to say it in Spanish, but
Bravo to Belize!!
v/r
Moe
Oh no.
Yeah, quite an improvement.
That's not true. I'll head over to Wiki and fix it.
The more and more I see & hear this the more I see population control is the only viable alternative for this world we have, BTW, I'll mention it one more time, I won't be around and unless I'm reincarnated I'm not worried. For those who will and care....think... think deeply. Cause these no non sense debunk ideas that we are not affecting the planet will be the DOOM of our future. SWell of course we have 2012 to fall back on though and lets party like it's 1999.
Haha! im right its going to be pinhole (yesterday's update)
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