September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe
September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.
U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.
La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.
Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.
September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.
New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.
Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I am not there yet, I am still in Sydney but i wish i was there with James Reynolds,Geoff Mackley, Bradley Ambrose and Mark Thomas.
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT DVORAK EYE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ELEVATED 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 155 KNOTS. A
STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED THIS
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 15 DEG CELCIUS AND THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT LUZON. THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LUZON IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AND
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY. IT WILL EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND 18/12Z, REORGANIZE, AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. AROUND THIS TIME THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN NORTH OF WEST TO THE EAST OF
HAINAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM SIX HOURS
AGO. GFS REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND
STALLS THE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST OF LUZON FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS, THEN
JERKS THE TRACK PECULIARLY NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING
RIDES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING/RETREATING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST, TO INCLUDE NOGAPS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MEGI WILL TURN TOWARDS A BUILDING
WEAKENESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE SOURCE OF THIS WEAKNESS. THERE
IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE AMONG THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONTHELESS, THE 15Z JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.//
NNNN
Google Maps of Aparri, PI
16Oct 12amGMT deleted by NHC *9.8n78.7w*20knots*1009mb
16Oct 06amGMT - - 10.8n75.1w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.3w
16Oct 12pmGMT - - 10.9n75.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.8w
16Oct 06pmGMT - - 11.0n76.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.7n80.3w
17Oct 12amGMT - - 11.1n76.9w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.5n80.8w
17Oct 06amGMT - - 11.3n77.6w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *10.3n81.2w
17Oct 12pmGMT - - 11.5n78.2w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
Copy&paste 10.8n75.1w, 10.9n75.7w-11.0n76.3w, 11.0n76.3w-11.1n76.9w, 11.1n76.9w-11.3n77.6w, 11.3n77.6w-11.5n78.2w, bef, trb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours.
^ In four 6hour line-segments
What are the winds? 190 mph?
Hey Grothar! Yes, I've been out to Crete for holidays. Luckily no huricanes there like baaad Megi.
yea
Super Typhoon Megi is up too 180mph ouch
Thanks. Megi will defiantly go down in history as one of the strongest tropical cyclones.
The lack of activity here in the Pacific got to him so he went abseiling down to a volcano's lava lake a month or so ago.
But he's not so crazy as to decamp from his current position to try and drive south across rural Philippines in the dark to try and get in to the eyewall of this thing.
If the pressure drops 13 more millibars, we will be dealing with a cyclone the intensity of Wilma.
Imagine if she was in the GOM. Yikes!
Wow is right
Do you think "90L"/Central Atlantic AOI Will be...
A) 10% or lower
B) 20%
C) 30%
D) Will Form later next week...
Do you think 99L will be...
A) 20% or Less
B) 30%
C) 40%
D) 50%
E) will Form in a few days
Wow! Talk about a beautiful disaster.
1) A. 10%
2) A. 20%
huh what 90L oh you mean PGI-61L ok I get it but please do not call it 90L when it is not but you can call it PRE-90l but don't call it 90L but anyway
I say
1 is A-B most likely B
2 is B-C most likely C but there is a possibility that it is B
Yes and no.
The Pacific has lower pressures in general than the Atlantic, there's not a direct comparison when talking about pressure.
If Wilma was put in the Pacific, she would have been stronger than Tip.
Megi SE of China
Actually, Megi's a bit weaker than Rita -- the average pressure is lower on that side of the planet, and it is easier for storms over there to reach those low pressures. So Rita's still a bit stronger.
Recap:
Cat. 5 MEGI 180 MPH Storm with 895 MB pressure
99L still Disorganized for the time being
PGI61L tropical wave predicted to get into conducive environment.
I'll take Beef with Broccoli.
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