September 2010: 4th or 8th warmest on record for the globe
September 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated September 2010 the fourth warmest September on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - September, as the warmest such period on record. September 2010 global ocean temperatures were the ninth warmest on record, and land temperatures were also the ninth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record, according to both Remote Sensing Systems data and University of Alabama Huntsville data. The year-to-date period January-September is the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data, behind 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from September 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Fourteenth warmest September on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest September in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to September, was the 24th warmest such period on record. Ten states had a top-ten warmest September on record--Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. No states recorded a top-ten coldest September.
U.S. precipitation near average
For the contiguous U.S., September 2010 ranked near average. However, there were large regional variations in precipitation. Wyoming had its driest September in the 116-year record, and three other states had top-ten driest Septembers--Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Minnesota had its wettest September on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest September--North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin, and Missouri.
La Niña intensifies to the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is now experiencing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.8°C below average during the first two weeks of October, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.53°C below average (as of October 10.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.
Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the remainder of October, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual.
September 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2008, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice volume in September was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The reported volume of 1,000 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) was 70 percent below the 1979 - 2009 September average of 3,200 cubic miles (13,400 cubic kilometers). Sea ice volume accounts for sea ice extent as well as the thickness of ice beneath the ocean's surface. The Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation for most of September, but are now frozen shut again. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free. The 2010 Arctic melt season allowed for two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--to successfully navigate both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in a single season, the first time this feat has occurred in modern history.
New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 3 - 5 days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts that the storm will move northwest towards the Cayman Islands, while the GFS model takes the storm west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras can expect a period of very heavy rains from the disturbance Saturday night through Tuesday.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Megi at 3:30am EDT 10/16/10. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 3 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Veracruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.
Next update
I'll have an update Sunday or Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ABNT20 KNHC 161735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission: the gift that may very well spell the end of America as we know it. :-\
Excellent post. +10^30
In other news, the NHC has--obviously--raised the AOI to 20%...and NOAA has increased its chances, too:
Click for larger image:
Sorry, but that's a lame defense. You can use that to throw out any piece of modern science. Empirical evidence has proven beyond 100% that the earth is not the center of the Universe, despite what was once thought. By your logic, one could claim that the new science could be thrown out some day, so you refuse to believe in anything at all.
Way to take a stand! ;-)
My point exactly. Only a fool looks at the evidence and says, "Nope, nothing wrong here." ;-)
As I've said more than once here, the contrarians have so many different arguments--that is, points of denial--that they can't form anything cohesive. From PsychPage.com: "Denial is the simplest defense to understand. It is simply the refusal to acknowledge what has, is, or will happen." Or, as Sigmund Freud put it, it's the defense mechanism most often used when a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept, so he or she and rejects it instead, inisting that it is not true in the face of overwhelming evidence. Some of the stages:
--Simple denial (deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether): "The planet isn't warming. It's getting colder. Man can't change the atmosphere. Most scientists are corrupt liars."
--Minimisation (admit the fact but deny its seriousness): "Okay, so the earth is warming. What's the big deal? It'll be centuries before anything noticeable occurs, and by then we'll have figured out a way to fix it."
--Projection (admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility.) "Okay, so the earth is getting warmer, and it is going to be bad--very bad. But it's not because of man; it's sunspots/solar flares/natural cycles/magic. And the United States would be alone; China and India don't care."
I've heard all of the above from contrarians, which tells me that they're aware they're sinking on a rickety raft of pseudo-logic, corporate lies, and mis/disinformation. The sad thing is, all of us and all our children will suffer...
We are having yet another beautiful weather day here in the Tampa Bay area, with lower than normal temps. and much drier than normal air.
These conditions have persisted now for over two week's time. This AM, the low temperature at my location was 55F and I am just two miles inland from the Gulf.
It seems to me that the long term effect of all this should be to lower the SST's still further in the GOM, albeit slowly but surely.
This being the case, it is just my hunch that if Sir Richard should come this way in about ten days or so as some of the models are hinting, he might be a rather limp fellow when he arrives. Just my opinion though.
--
Quoting Objectivist:
I'd hope you'd not need a physician to tell you you have a compound fracture, they're rather obvious. ;-)
My point exactly. Only a fool looks at the evidence and says, "Nope, nothing wrong here." ;-)
---
You seriously believe that the evidence supporting human CO2 emissions is primarily responsible for any warming is comparable to the evidence of a compound fracture?
***sigh***
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON JUAN (MEGI)
11:00 PM PhST October 16 2010
=======================================
Typhoon "JUAN" has maintained its strength as it moves in a westward direction towards northern Luzon.
At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 18.5°N 129.7°E or 770 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.
Signal Warnings
==============
Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)
Luzon Region
----------
1.Cagayan
2.Calayan Group of Islands
3.Babuyan Group of Islands
4.Isabela
Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.
Residents in coastal areas under signal #1 are alerted of possible storm surges.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
TCNA21 RJTD 161800
CCAA 16180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17187 11288 11334 260// 92914=
October 16 2010, 1800z
Typhoon Megi (1013/15W/TY 17)
18.7N 128.8E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
We have the sat temps for the 30 year warm phase. I will be monitoring the next 30.
I'll be doing a blog entry on it, but still compiling everything.
This will yield the most significant insight on the matter. Will be a "defining period," if you will, imo.
60 years of data, two opposing cycles.
Have to run, out for now.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
3:00 AM JST October 17 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (940 hPa) located at 18.7N 128.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
220 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in western quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 123.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.6N 118.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 15.8N 114.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
--
oh boy.. getting very mean
Love how you insist on a literal translation of issues and decide it's best to subjectively interpret scientific matters.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 918.3mb/124.6kt
It does if you put me and Nea in the same room together!
Just kidding! Not a threat. Making a joke! Lighten up! LOL
Even if Goebbels was a propaganda genius a good
portion of the German public still separated
fact from fiction. I prefer to hear from both sides of a topic even if it is contrary to my
theory. Few here do not drink the cool-aid and
those that don't shall be ostracized.
With all the heat when are the oceans rising??
No, it hadn't been said before you said it. LOL
And thanks for the welcome!
In my first post, late last night Eastern Time, I mentioned that I have been a lurker here for years. Finally decided to join up.
I believe that you can convert 10-minute sustained winds to 1-minute sustained winds by multiplying the 10-minute sustained winds by 1.14.
Hades, you should be able to shed some light on this, lol.
example 100 knots will be 115.
Excerpt from 2.2 Wind Speed Averaging Times:
"Depending on the methodology, there are some small differences in recommended conversion factors. For US Navy interests, the factor 0.88 is used in going from a 1-minute system to a 10-minute system such that TEN-MINUTE MEAN = 0.88 * ONE-MINUTE MEAN or ONE-MINUTE MEAN = 1.14 * TEN-MINUTE MEAN. Appendix A provides two tables for converting between 1-minute wind speeds and 10-minute wind speeds. These conversion factors should be considered as average rather than absolute conversions. There are many variations depending mainly on the frictional characteristics of the surface area and the atmospheric stability."
Back in a bit.
Link
A weak trough of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean this morning is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. The latest global model guidance, including the GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET and even the NC Hurricane WRF model all forecast that tropical cyclone development will occur in this area as we get into Monday and especially Tuesday.
What is concerning is that the model guidance are showing a consensus that the upper level conditions will be fairly favorable leading to a significant hurricane in the southwest Caribbean by Thursday or Friday. The latest model guidance also have flipped towards a scenario that keeps Richard south of 15 or so North Latitude and coming ashore over central America by next week and dying out.
Some really interesting stats were posted on the weather forum Eastern US Weather Forums by GaWx:
For the period 1851-2009, I counted 64 Tropical Cyclones that were first declared in the Caribbean west of 75 West Longitude and that were in the Caribbean west of 75 West Longitude at some point betweem October 11 and October 31.
For those 64, here is the breakdown:
- 27 (42%) later hit the U.S. (17 of these 27 hit South Florida or 27% of the 64; 6 of these 27 hit North Carolina or 9% of the 64; 3 of these 27 hit both South Florida and North Carolina or 5% of the 64)
- 21 (33%) ended up missing the U.S. to the east or south
- 13 (20%) ended up dying over or immediately adjacent to either Mexico or Central America
- 3 (5%) died over either the Gulf of Mexico or Cuba
The various GFS model runs have shown the first three scenarios, all of which are reasonable possibilities based on these stats. However, a plurality hit the U.S and that scenario has occurred about twice as often as dying over/near Mexico or Central America.
So, the latest ideas by the various models of a track that takes it over Central America in about a week from now is a reasonable possibility given the climate stats stated above. However, I am not buying into any scenario posed by any of the model guidance until we get a well defined center formed in the southwest Caribbean. I strongly suspect that we will continue to see the model guidance flip and flop around with different scenarios over the weekend. To be frank and honest, I’m having a hard time believing the model scenarios that are laid out this morning. First, these same models forecast that Paula would track over Central America and die out when in reality it tracked northward into the Yucatan Channel. Second, climatology suggests that there is only a 20 percent chance of the Central America track happening and it would seem more likely that this system, which would be named Richard, would be pulled northward by any troughs of low pressures that are around.
So, what is most important right now is that I think we will see tropical cyclone occur in the southwest Caribbean on Monday or Tuesday and once this happens, then we should see the models come around to a more realistic and consistent forecast. So, this is something to keep a close eye on over the weekend into next week and I will be monitoring this potential closely and will keep you all updated.
If I may gently disagree with your statement, I'd like to say that the viewpoints I have seen expressed on this blog for the past two years or so seem to be about evenly split, pro and con regarding the AGW hypothesis.
The unfortunate thing though is that this is a subject which tends to bring forth raw emotions in a lot of people and thus it is often difficult to engage in a friendly debate on the topic.
You should watch Levi's video..
Way to not understand! The point is that an appeal to "consensus", as is so popular with the warmists, is a joke in terms of scientific history. One must look at the ground truth to have a hope of a meaningful opinion.
Once again, you've missed the point of my reply. Evidence for AGW is anything but obvious.
"Cohesiveness" is not the goal, "correctness" is the one. It's a complex area, so simplistic arguments (the arctic ice cap is melting, AGW is RIGHT!) don't work.
The mis/disinformation is mostly on the AGW side from what I can tell...most of the ground truth scientific data is readily available. There are some datasets which are apparently being gamed, to wit the NOAA/CRU temperature record. Here's a link to similar shenanigans that've just been uncovered in New Zealand:
NIWA capitulates on manipulated temperature data.
This is reminiscent of the episode where Russia informed NOAA that its temperature records didn't match those trumpeted by NOAA as evidence of AGW.
I was thinking along the lines of 2008, our last neutral La Nina.
How can we possible discuss any theories when the data is so flawed and manipulated and admittedly so? Even they admit to having almost non-existent standards that they then halfheartedly enforce. In other industries, they use systems like DAMAS to verify and enforce proper use of equipment etc. This is about the future of our planet and the lives of our grandchildren, why aren't there stringent standards that are then enforced in order to virtually guarantee accuracy of incoming data and assure us that the subsequent conclusions are accurate to the best of our ability? It sure isn't being done today.
Time to clean up shop and act like professionals as opposed to the shade tree mets we, apparently, have fallen into being.
BTW
If the MIMIC-TPW is any indication then things are not looking good for future storms in the next few days. If at all this season.
Sure hope lackluster season continues, I can compensate for the lack of rainfall by over-watering the area surrounding my home to make sure a brush fire is unlikely to destroy it this spring.
Yeah right....
I agree with your assessment.
And it only goes to show that what the Mets say on this subject always reflects the core issue when it comes to Hurricane Season:
"It's not the number of storms that form which matters, it's where they go and what they do when they get there that counts."
This has been an unusually active tropical cyclone season. And yet, it has not been especially noteworthy in terms of the overall amount of damage or lives lost in the Atlantic Basin when compared with other seasons.
For the US, it is looking more and more as if we may just get extraordinarily lucky this year with no landfalls of significant tropical cyclones. No, it is not completely over yet but the door is closing fast.
Richard might form next week 10/16/10
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