Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines
The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.
Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What's it at now?
Yeah, it's breaking climatology rules, but it isn't impossible for it to develop, I think a Tropical storm would be very possible, but a Hurricane ehh... That would surprise me.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines
At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (890 hPa) located at 17.6N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T7.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
350 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
220 NM from the center in western quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 119.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.9N 117.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.0N 115.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
16Oct 12amGMT - - ATCF numbers deleted by NHC *9.8n78.7w*20knots*1009mb
16Oct 06amGMT - - 10.8n75.1w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.3w
16Oct 12pmGMT - - 10.9n75.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.8n79.8w
16Oct 06pmGMT - - 11.0n76.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.7n80.3w
17Oct 12amGMT - - 11.1n76.9w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *9.5n80.8w
17Oct 06amGMT - - 11.3n77.6w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF *10.3n81.2w
17Oct 12pmGMT - - 11.5n78.2w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
17Oct 06pmGMT - - 11.6n78.5w - - 20knots - - 1009mb -- NHC-ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
Copy&paste 10.8n75.1w, 10.9n75.7w, 11.0n76.3w-11.1n76.9w, 11.1n76.9w-11.3n77.6w, 11.3n77.6w-11.5n78.2w, 11.5n78.2w-11.6n78.5w, bef, trb into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours
^ In four 6hour line-segments
Wow!
AL, 13, 2010091712, , BEST, 0, 196N, 956W, 105, 957, HU
did they upgrade it or is it still the same has befor not sure what 105kt winds mean in mph
Link
This is saying 170kt winds = 195 mph.
Yet people are saying winds are 180mph and 185 mph or even 200 mph. So what will go down in the books? 180? 185? 195? 200? I'm confused right now, everybody is throwing around a different number.
Been the same, 120 mph.
105 kt = 120, so no, they didn't touch Karl.
someone miscalculated 155kts into 185mph.
Recon's surface measurement instruments got 195mph winds
a possibly contaminated dropsonde caught sustained winds of ~200mph
did I miss anything?
ok thanks
So the 200 mph won't be counted, nor the 185. But why isn't the 195 being accounted for?
interesting model for Invest 99 ATL
AL, 11, 2010091500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 535W, 135, 925, HU
AL, 12, 2010091512, , BEST, 0, 177N, 322W, 120, 948, HU, 64,
and i think are E storm got upgrade has well too 120kt
AL, 07, 2010090206, , BEST, 0, 286N, 744W, 120, 931, HU
NHC has an advisory with 135 knots winds for IGOR.
Original NHC advisory
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO DECREASING 41.7 69.3 117.4 183 -1
JMAE DECREASING 43.1 84 133.9 116.9 -1
JTWC DECREASING 48.7 99.7 142.5 193 -1
KHRA INCREASING 140.4 245.2 393.1 514.5 -1
KHRM INCREASING 142.3 246.1 378.1 507.8 -1
KXTR INCREASING 154.4 364.1 653.9 773.6 -1
MM5B INCREASING 80 140.8 232.9 356.6 329.8
MM5E CONSTANT 0 0 0 0 0
UKMT DECREASING 42 69.5 135.8 172 -1
125kt? i dont see it on there
hmm NHC has an advisory with EARL at 125 Taz, so I don't know what is up with the NRL with that data
Agreed. This could REALLY suck.
2010OCT17 185700 7.5 881.0/ 2.0 /155.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.75 -79.12 EYE 21 IR 17.58 -124.03 COMBO
AS OF 3:00 AM TODAY (MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 230 KM EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, CAGAYAN (17.7°N, 124.1°E).
Metro Manila only Pre-school have no classes today.
---
Only preschool students?.. uh..
Sometimes they skip over a certain advisory.. the ATCF files don't say they've been updated since the 5th of September for Earl. Earl peaked at 145.
oh ok
ok do you see any other storms on there that may have got in an upgrade
doesnt look to good
Did you read what it said? It said Metro Manila. Manila is a ways away from the forecasted landfall.
As already discussed, Nicole and Matthew both did.
Nicole was a TS for 7 advisories vs 1 it only had operationally and Matthew got bumped to 60.
ya more class levels should
Yea true, especially since it appears to be going a little more southerly than forecasted
ok
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