Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines
The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.
Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ok
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 124.2E
Super Typhoon Megi (15W) appears to have reached a peak intensity of 160 to 165 knots between 1200 and 1800 PM UTC. Based on 1206 PM UTC aircraft vortex message indicating 163 knots with a minimum central pressure of 893 MB.
165kt?
lets hope its peaked but its still going to be a very dangerous storm for them over there worse than katrina worse than rita or wilma...any one left above ground in this storm will face certain death power outages will last for months water service will be disrupted complete structure failure will occur sky scraper windows will be blown out what you see now will be unrecognizable this time tomorrow eve any one or any living thing exposed to the winds will also face certain death if left un protected....God be with the people of the Philippines during this storm watch over them dear lord and protect them and shelter them during the storm and lord for the less fortunate who have no were to go for shelter but there homes i pray you let them live through the storm and its devastating aftermath help the people of the Philippines recover the best they can after the storm and help them get there life back....amen
190 mph
after a season of no landfalling systems in the western pacific look whats happening...Megi
Intense...
Gusts are what? 250mph? O.o
I hope everyone in the path of this monster is ready...
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC
EYE WALL AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON COINCIDENT EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD AT 17/18Z. STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND
171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
REFLECTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INITIAL INTERACTION OF THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON.
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM, RESPECTIVELY. STY MEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
CAGAYAN AND ISABELA PROVINCES IN NORTHERN LUZON AND WEAKEN TO
TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGE. STY
15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24
AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
36, THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS BASED ON THE TIMING IN
WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN THE LATER TAUS, FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT
UKMO, ECMWF, AND JGSM MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN
the same could happen with richard in the atlantic
cat 6 may be put of the saffersimpson hurricane scale soon
Incorrect, there have been numerous tropical systems to make landfall in the western pacific and atlantic basins this year.
I have no idea just how frightening it must be to see that behemoth bearing down on you.
To those of you in the Philippines, who are in the direct path of such a monster as Typhoon Megi my prayers go out to you.
The Department of Education set the rules on the suspension of classes to keep parents aware and students danger-free in cases of typhoons and other calamities.
Classes in pre-school level in all public and private schools will be automatically suspended with storm number 1.
Classes in pre-school, elementary and high school in all public and private schools will be automatically suspended with storm signal number 2.
Classes in all levels are automatically suspended with storm signal number 3.
All travel and outdoor activities are cancelled with storm signal number 4.
In the absence of typhoon signal warnings from PAGASA, localized suspension or cancellation of classes in both public and private elementary and secondary schools may be implemented by the school principal.
Likewise, the schools division superintendent shall decide on the suspension of classes if such covers the entire division.
Parents wishing to ascertain whether or not to send their children to school should check for media advisories coming from PAGASA, DepED, Calamity, Disaster and Fire Control (CDFC) groups, Local Disaster Coordinating Council (LDCC) and the Local Governments Units (LGUs).
In the absence of official storm warnings, parents have the ultimate responsibility for determining whether their children should go to school.
The required number of school days for the school year shall be considered especially in holding make-up classes to offset the days when classes are suspended.
Make-up classes shall be held on Saturdays or on weekdays beyond the originally-set school calendar in both public and private schools.
------------
interesting school emergency plan scenario if an area is under each signal warning
Each should be 19 mph
Category 1: 75 mph to 94 mph
Category 2: 95 mph 114 mph
Category 3: 115 mph to 134 mph
Category 4: 135 mph to 155 mph
Category 5: 156 mph to 175 mph
Category 6: 176+ mph
i mean con us landfalls but your right my bad
ANNOUNCEMENT: Public Storm Warning Signal #1 is raised over Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Northern Quezon, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna and Batngas.
Public Storm Warning Signal #2 is raised over Ilocas Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Rest of Aurora, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija and Polillio Island.
Public Storm Warning Signal #3 is raised over Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Viscaya and Northern Aurora.
i this need 99L too be come a name storm then i will have my full house
round 3
90L be comes hermine
91L be comes IGOR
92L be comes .KARL
93L be comes JULIA
94L be comes LISA
95L be comes Matthew
96L be comes NICOLE
97L be comes Otto
98L be comes Paula
come on 99L am rooting for you
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
6:00 AM JST October 18 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines
At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (890 hPa) located at 17.5N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots
Dvorak Intensity:
Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
350 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
220 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.8N 119.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.9N 117.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 18.0N 115.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
2100 PM UTC advisory from JMA
NOUS42 KNHC 171330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SUN 17 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-138
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 13.5N AND 82.5W.
SS scale is 1-min sustained.
On the SS, Megi is a 200mph storm, easy.
Not positive on the 10min vs. 1min. That is my understanding.
even though dr m says its going inland here tomorrow i wouldnt be so sure models want to take this thing north
If JMA used the correct 10 minute sustained winds the current winds using that scale would be 135 knots.
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