Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines
The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.
Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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it looks like its still strengthening to me
I'd be very surprised if it did.
Looks like it peaked.
WOW what a bad ass storm
weatherlover94 signing off for the night talk to yall tomorrow
boy i tell you i hope its peaked but they are in serious trouble any way even if it has peaked
This chart attempts to show the warm anomaly, not actual core temp.
Using AMSU to Measure TC Intensity: A Tropical Cyclone (TC) is warm core low pressure system. The strength of the warm core is directly related to the storms intensity. As the magnitude or height of the warm anomaly of the TC changes, so does the TC intensity. While the AMSU instrument can not measure the true atmospheric temperature (these temperatures can be obtained through a variety of retrieval routines) the antenna temperatures measured by the intrument can be converted to brightness tempperatures that are direct corellaries to the true temperature. Using the brightness temperature anomaly the TC intensity can be obtained. There is a direct relationship between the the temperature anomaly measured by AMSU and TC intensity. However this relationship can be strengthened if some of the AMSU error sources are acounted for. There are 4 primary sources of error...
CIMSS AMSU
USAF C-130 AF307 0000 UTC 18 Oct 1200 UTC 18 Oct
So that means they took off about an hour and 45 minutes ago. Thinking about Dr. Masters' story of flight in the Pacific Hurricane Hunter and hoping this crew stays safe.
i think it will already be a catastrophic typhoon i think we will be talking about the destruction to the Philippines this time tomorrow night at this time....remember the folks of the Philippines when you pray tonight before you go to bed
Click for large loop:
This is a storm Shakespeare would want to write about!
190 mph is the peak intensity using the 1 min average wind speed
145 knots is what JTWC believe is the current wind speed as of 0:00 AM UTC Monday October 18
It's frightening to think that this is the equivalent of a high-end EF4 tornado, just as equally frightening as it is to think that there are some places on that coast that are simply not going to exist in a few hours.
Landfall looks to be just to the north of Palanan which is situated on the south side of a bay - perfect for a storm to pile a surge into before landfall. Can't imagine how many dozens of feet that can whip up when you add in waves.
Population of Palanan is roughly 16k: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palanan,_Isabela
More info: http://www.pinoytravelblog.com/travel-destinations/isabela/374/palanan-the-town-that-time-forgot
Gotcha. Thanks.
I thought 190mph was the current intensity.
Click for larger image:
There's a nice flare-up of heavy convection this evening around the northern edge of the 99L floater:
Click for larger image:
FULL IMAGE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2010/tdata/wpac/15W.html
MEGI AT 879 MBAR
AMAZING
The 190 mph information came from the data JTWC released at 21:00 PM stating that Megi may have peaked at winds of 160 to 165 knots.
7.5. PT=7.5. FT BASED ON DT.
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I see there was an estimate of T8.0 but final T number ended up with T7.5.
Hindi pa. Inaasahan nating maglandfall si typhoon "JUAN" between 10am to 12nn kung di magbabago ang speed nya.
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landfall expected between 10 AM - 12 PM PhST
www.abs-cbnnews.com/weather
Key
A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 17/2330Z
C. 17.5N
D. 123.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. A 27NM WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A
WHT RING YIELDING AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET
AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1817Z 17.4N 124.1E MMHS
17/2108Z 17.5N 123.9E SSMI
17/2133Z 17.4N 123.9E SSMS
KIENZLE
AS OF 10:00 AM TODAY (MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 120 KM EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY (17.6°N, 122.8°E).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 225 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 260 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WEST SOUTHWEST
SPEED: 19 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 922 hPa
Viewing: 351 - 401
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