Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines
The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.
Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AS OF 10:00 AM TODAY (MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS LOCATED AT 120 KM EAST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY (17.6°N, 122.8°E).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 225 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 260 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WEST SOUTHWEST
SPEED: 19 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 922 hPa
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
typhoonfury Should be going live again with CNN at 12pm Php time talking about #Megi #Juan Very close to landfall now...
4 minutes ago
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST October 18 2010
============================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 12.0N 172.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Thousands of people in the Philippines have fled from their homes ahead of a powerful storm, Super-Typhoon Megi, which is expected to reach the north of the country early on Monday.
Megi, which has winds of up to more than 280km/h (175mph), is then forecast to move towards the South China Sea.
It is the strongest storm the Philippines has faced this year.
In 2006, a storm with winds of 155km/h triggered mudslides, burying villages and killing about 1,000 people.
Continue reading the main story
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Animated guide: Typhoons
'Zero casualties'
The northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela are on the highest storm alert.
Officials are warning of heavy rain and high winds that could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture.
Emergency services have been stocking up on food and medicines, says the BBC's Kate McGeown in the capital, Manila.
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
This is like preparing for war. We know the past lessons and we're aiming for zero casualties”
End Quote
Benito Ramos
Disaster-response official
Government forecasters say waves off the east coast could be greater than 14m (46ft).
Sea travel has been banned. The coast guard has been instructed to forbid all fishing vessels from setting out to sea in the north, says the AFP news agency.
Thousands of soldiers and officers are on standby to deliver aid and rescue people stranded by the floods.
Trucks, rescue boats and food packs have been pre-positioned near vulnerable areas, said Benito Ramos, a senior disaster-response official.
"This is like preparing for war," he told the Associated Press. "We know the past lessons and we're aiming for zero casualties."
Schools in the north will be closed on Monday.
Farmers were being urged to harvest as many of their crops as possible before the typhoon hit, our correspondent says.
The area in the storm's path is one of the country's main rice-growing regions.
In July, President Benigno Aquino sacked the head of the weather bureau after he failed to predict a typhoon which unexpectedly changed course and hit Manila, killing more than 100 people.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US Navy says Megi is expected to weaken to typhoon intensity as it crosses the Cordillera mountain range.
However, it will then re-emerge into the South China Sea and re-intensify as it heads for southern China.
I read the Govt was very pro-active in evacuation.
Looking better.
I think you mean suicidal surfing...
Ilagan, Isabela - almost zero visibility, heavy rains and strong winds
Copy&paste 18.7n127.5e-18.5n126.2e,18.5n126.2e-18.1n125.1e, 18.1n125.1e-17.6n124.2e, 17.6n124.2e-17.5n123.3e, 17.5n123.3e-17.38n122.23e, lao, mnl into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances travelled over the last 24^hours.
Each of the 4 eastern line-segments individually spans 6hours of Megi's path.
The westernmost line-segment is a straightline projection of the speed&heading averaged
over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions extended to landfall:
~4hours from now to Maconacon,Isabela(Luzon)Phillipines
They flew into Gilbert. NOVA filmed them do it (and as a matter of fact, Dr. Masters was on the plane)
may god have mercy on there souls
remember a hurricane can strip the land so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water
Good Lord, the eye is likely going to pass over that person.
Dang lack of media coverage.
What's its current pressure? Camille made landfall at 905 mb with sustained winds of 190 mph.
885mb I believe.
Should blow that out of the water with 885mbs.
Why is it a "freak of nature?"
A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/0230Z
C. 17.4N
D. 122.6E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 25NM ROUND EYE
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/2133Z 17.4N 123.9E SSMS
17/2232Z 17.3N 123.5E AMSU
17/2242Z 17.3N 123.5E SSMS
GATES
Unless there is a shift in Megi's heading, both Maconacon and Palanan airports should be nearby.
Typhoonfury has a good website with links also.
The "window of opportunity" for most in the Atlantic Basin to get hit by a Category 5 hurricane is roughly from mid-August to mid-September, when the SST's and the atmospheric conditions are most likely to be just right for such a development. In the Caribbean Sea, this time frame extends into and includes much of the month of October.
Megi may actually have 190+ mph. winds at landfall in a few hours. Hurricane Camille is believed to have had maximum sustained winds of about 190 mph. when it made landfall at Pass Christian, MS in mid-August of 1969.
The Great Labor Day hurricane of early September in 1935 was a small, compact and exceptionally powerful hurricane with an extraordinarily low central atmospheric pressure reading when it made landfall in the Middle Florida Keys. And that was before hurricane hunter aircraft were able to measure the central minimum pressure with precision accuracy, so no one really knows just how low the pressure was in that storm. But most estimates of the maximum sustained winds with that hurricane at its peak strength when it made landfall are in the 200 mph. range. It can happen in the Atlantic basin.
But "super" typhoons are more common in the W. Pac than are the equivalent storms in the Atlantic, thank goodness. But again, it can happen and it is sobering to think of what it would be like, for those of us who live in harm's way.
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