99L a threat to develop; damage from Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized this morning over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; two inches has fallen so far this morning at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will mostly remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to. The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.
Damage from Super Typhoon Megi still largely unknown
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still largely unknown. Preliminary news reports indicate that at least 10 people died, and the northern Philippine province of Isabela suffered severe damage. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Baguio near the west coast of northern Luzon received 7.72" of rain from the storm, and many mountainous regions likely received over a foot of rain.
Figure 2. Rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were observed by the polar-orbiting F-18 satellite in association with Megi at 00:40 UTC October 19, 2010. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has built a formidable new eyewall. At the same time, Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to intensify into a very dangerous Category 4 storm by Thursday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall near Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon,bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China.
"Daily Downpour" airing this afternoon
Our live Internet radio show, "Daily Downpour", will be airing today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. You can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml, and I'll be discussing the latest info on Invest 99L with hosts Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Memories of Mitch!!
Dayum!
A nice squall just passing through here. Thunder with it, but no rain as yet . Seems to be raining heavy just north of here.
Post 152, that's looking Good!
Or Bad!
Or Something...
Does it make any difference that Mitch started as a tropic wave off the coast of Africa and this future storm was started at it's current location?
True, currently they diverge over 180 degrees in direction. The XTRP splits the difference, if you watch over time, the models will come closer to the XTRP path, it takes time for it to occur, however.
This is my last statement on the subject, as I don't want to bore people any further than I probably already have: ;-)
I appreciate your detailed and in-depth analysis. And you're correct, for the most part. However, trollish behavior is not a "difference of opinion". Lemme 'splain:
If I come on this site once and say, "I believe a Cat 5 hurricane is headed toward Miami!", that's okay; it was my opinion, it was just the one time, I was corrected, and we've all moved on. If, however, I come on here every hour for days on end and post the same thing just to get a rise out of people and/or just to confuse them, I would no longer simply be giving my opinion; I would, rather, be engaging in well-known trollish behavior (in fact, it's how the term troll originated), which is expressly forbidden by the rules of the blog, and which I would expect to have reported to the admins. That is, then, what I'll continue to do with Oracle28's incessant and boorish "XTRP" comments, and hope everyone else does the same.
That is, after all, how successful online communites work, no? ;-)
6 days out - that's bad. Come on - go west 99L.
Levi you are the MAN! they should pull you from school right now and let you run the NHC
Lots of people repeatedly refer to the GFS GFDL models on a daily basis. You just don't like my posts. Using the XTRP model to analyze is no different, IMO
Who's worse, Internet Tough Guy or Internet Blog Monitor?
99L will not affect the U.S. gulf coast
Thanks...
This is from A Cruise Board. News coming from current passengers on ship. 20 foot seas in area of rescue
60%
Non-Tasked Missions in 2010
Date Mission Identifier Agency Aircraft Product(s) Map
10/19 Train NOAA N43RF URNT15
:)
I find this hilarious! If soemone doesn't like the XTRP model comments just ignore Oracle28 don't make such a big deal out of it!
I learned two things from this. One is your spend too much time on your computer and take a blog way way way to serious. Second, based on your picture you are trying to use the force to create this so called Cat 5 hurricane you are talking about haha.
On a side note 99L is at least 48 hours away from TD status. Nice little trough in south central US which will play a factor in the coming days.
These Mid-October storms always make my stomach turn. The longer it sits there, your right, it WILL eventually get drawn N & NE in your status quo October cyclone track.
I doubt the NHC would go higher than 60% being this close to having real onsite data to work with. They can always raise it later today or go to TD status if warranted but I don't see them getting aggressive on the formation potential when the next two hours will tell them precisely where matters stand.
Just my view FWIW.
My thoughts exactly
My question would be, and excuse me because I haven't looked much at all today, has there been any increase in organization since 8am to warrant raising the odds?
In looking at the 8am discussion, the NHC thought this flight was necessary, so, I will go with C 60%.
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