Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status
A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.
Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.
Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.
Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The hour is late and a lot of us have known each other for many years. It is true a lot of the good bloggers have gone, but there are still some of us old-timers left. Sometimes we tease to break the boredom of a long day. That happens on a lot of blogs. When things get really serious, so do most of us. It will be better tomorrow. The NHC should have a better handle on the motion and intensity. Then you will see action on the blog. Have a little laugh now and then.
IMHO, the real reason that bloggers have abandoned this blog is the debate has become personal or harassing in some cases, and politics has been injected into science. It's just my opinion but if you could ask those that left why they did, I don't think their sole reason or main reason would be trolls.
There are some on here whose weather analysis with which I rarely agree yet on occasion they'll post something that I didn't notice or provide information about a factor with which I was unaware. In simpler terms, they educate me. Whether we agree or disagree with each others opinions, we can all learn from each other. At least, I do.
The situation with TD19 is similar Paula with a cold front descending south but in this case the front is much slower moving, and may stall. I've noticed over the years that these late season systems can take some crazy paths.
Nice summation, Lightening. There are a number of people with whom I disagree on many issues, but some are actually my best friends on the blog. We disagree, but have never been disagreeable. Some just take offense if you disagree with them and start with the insults. They are not necessarily trolls, but must be avoided in the same manner. I simply do not reply to them and the usually cease. In all the years on this blog, there have been only two people with whom I have had a serious disagreement. It just isn't worth the effort to argue. I really enjoy most of the bloggers and the humor. If this were simply a technical blog, I would be long gone.
That is the problem with some of the people that post 50 times a day. They think they know what they are talking about and others do also cause they know how to post links or they post video's but really have no logical reason of why it may/may not happen.
It be easier if a Met comes on with a Met tag, but in reality, people will always try to challenge a person with a degree, especially if they want to be proven correct over the Meteorologist.
Just for you, 786, so you don't think we are all idiots.
NOOOO....Mornin!!
TCNA21 RJTD 210600 CCB
CCAA 21060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17199 11176 12436 260// 90106=
NAMELESS 18172 11424 14134 215// 93010=
NAMELESS 19199 11586 13294 215// 93016=
6:00 AM UTC October 21 2010
Typhoon 17 (1013) Megi
19.9N 117.6E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
Tropical Depression 18
17.2N 142.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Tropical Depression 19
19.9N 158.6E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2010
8:30 AM IST October 21 2010
====================================
SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Bay Of Bengal
At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB04-2010 lays centered over the same area near 17.5N 91.5E, or about 350 km south-southwest of Sittwe Myanmar, 450 km south of Cox Bazar Bangladesh and 650 km southeast of Digha West Bengal.
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm. It would move northwards initially and then north-northeastwards and cross north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts by tomorrow evening between Teknaf, Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu, Myanmar near Sittwe, Myanmar.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.
Satellite imagery indicates banding pattern with further organization. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over east central Bay of Bengal between 14.0N and 20.0N east of 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate around the system. 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear shows no significant change around the system. Sea surface temperature (28-32C), and ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, ocean heat content is less than 100 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence around the system is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N at 200 hPa level. There is an anticyclonic circulation over central India to the northwest of the system center at mid-tropospheric level and is expected to influence the movement of the system towards the north northeast direction.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 18.0N 91.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 18.5N 92.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 20.0N 93.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 22.0N 94.0E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (935 hPa) located at 19.9N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.2N 118.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 22.9N 117.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.2N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.2N 142.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.5N 138.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
15:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Wake Island
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.9N 158.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 16 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.6N 155.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
i also suspect we have troll lurkers who are creating several, if not dozens, of bogus accounts. they do this to give the appearance that someone is being overwhelmed, when in reality it is one or two idiots posting bulls*it under 30 pseudo acct's.
if it doesn't stop i will quit coming in as well. the ignorance and stupidity in here is reaching new lows as each day passes. everyone is sick and tired of dumb asses who think that they should argue with mother nature, or that arguing with people is going to change the direction of the path of a given storm. its idiotic. it's getting old and you will notice that is why i am contributing less and less as time goes on.
yesterday was a perfect example. look how many people came into the blog that were supposedly from florida. almost every one of em argued about 99L, and they literally got pissed and abused others just because mother nature may be pointing a storm at florida.
way to go loser trolls and idiots. you are ruining a beautiful thing in here....but, after all, i am sure that's your intention isn't it....
WU is not quite the same any more. However, I love the weather and will share my thoughts and views, as a non-professional weather follower of 42 years.
Here is the latest on TD 19 form NASA satellite at about 3:15 AM CDT today:
Link to the NASA satellite page :O) Link
cause the forecast trac is boring
AL 19 is meandering in the Caribbean Sea. I wonder what tricks she has up her sleve??
Far from being a professional but, as a follower for some time i too don't come here often anymore. Not just because of the trolls but, because of the people that stay on here sun up to sun down and everytime something is posted they have to find something wrong and they get away of posting their graphics to lure them to their website where they sell stuff. Are you kidding and WU allows it!
I just updated my Website with all the stuff on TD19 soon to be Richard.
Tropical Update
Exactly. ONe or two on here think that own this blog. All you have to do is see the number of post or comments for some and figure it out....LOL......dang i got over 16,000...LOL
"WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS FOR THE EXTENDED AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 19 MEANDERS ABOUT. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.".....
Some rain!
Well, not that boring. From the 5AM TWO:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON."
So...the NHC is predicting a stronger storm, and one with a batter chance of shooting the YC slot. Boring? Not after the bulk of the Florida guys arise and log in shortly.
Oh, yeah: recon is on the way, and should be there in 30 minutes or so.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY ADJUST TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH HAS PARKED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THE PAST MONTH
OR SO WILL NOW BE FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED EAST TO ALLOW GULF MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. ALSO...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL DIG
FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO GIVE
ALABAMA MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN
THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAIN FORCING WILL BE
EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE LOW END AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A VERY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ONCE THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. THIS MEANS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A WARM AND SOUPY AIR MASS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK FORCING. RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. NEXT MAJOR SHORT
WAVE TROF WILL AFFECT AREA ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...
PATTERN TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO TROUGHING FROM APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW DYNAMICS EJECTING
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ON THE
MOVE WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW TO NUDGE IT ALONG FOR
ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN GULF STATES BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF AND BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO ACTIVATE UNDER OMEGA FEATURES
EMANATING WITHIN THE FLOW FROM THE CUT-OFF CIRCULATION.
MEANWHILE...T.D. 19 /AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL STORM RICHARD LATER
TODAY/ IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS
SUGGEST REMNANT CIRCULATION ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
COULD BECOME INVOLVED WITH FRONTAL INTERACTIONS MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY BY MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING IN REGARDS
TO FUTURE TRACK OF TD 19 /RICHARD?/ BEYOND 120 HOURS. MODELS ALSO
ARE LATCHING ON TO DEEPER TROUGHING BY LATE NEXT WEEK TO BRING A
PROSPECT OF FIRST FROST TO THE GULF STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL
PERFORMANCE UNCERTAINTIES ARE RATHER HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR SO
WILL WAIT TO SEE RUN-TO-RUN BEHAVIOR BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS NOTION
BUT IT DOES FALL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED ONLY A HAND FULL OF FIRST FREEZES OCCURRED PRIOR TO NOV 1
THIS FAR SOUTH. MCCOMB RECORDED ITS EARLIEST FREEZE ON OCT 19 1989
WITH A FEW MORE YEARS CLOSER TO OCTOBER 30TH. 24/RR
Sad but true. As interested as I am in tropical weather, I almost hate to see something forming, because I know that means the morons will show up. Yesterday was a great example: in just a few hours' time, we've had:
-Racist idiots (who kept being quoted but not reported or just ignored);
--Barely literate downcasters and hypercasters who act as though a weather discussion should be carried on like they're talking about a sports rivalry ("Richards jus going POOF over south american!!!!" followed by "NO!!! ur a idiot! ul eat KROW when its hit Florda!");
--Supposed mets who may have degrees, but who have the personality and charm of a school of dead fish;
--Those who incessantly and immaturely bash the NHC and other experts. ("I can't believe those morons blew it again! This is clearly a Cat 1 or even a Cat 2, so they must be keeping it an invest because they don't want to scare people!" or "What were they thinking when they upgraded that?!??! It clearly isn't a tropical depression. Seems to me they're just trying to pad the numbers!!!")
--Wannabe comedians repeatedly posting the same bits of "humor" over and over and over and over and over again, using up valuable blog space and goodwill in the process;
--As you said, people who use multiple accounts to give the illusion that they've got corroboration for one extreme view or the other;
Ah, well, such is the nature of the internet. Trolls have always been here, and always will be. I'll just do my part and keep making full use of the red exclamation button and the minus button and the "hide" button, and hope the rest of the good guys do the same.
Buoy 42057 @ 16.8N and 81.5W....Link
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F
Appears ECMWF likes to have soon to be Robert pay a visit to the Panhandle. Subject to chance of course.
neapolitan (swoon) good point, I enjoyed what you wrote
ike- on seflagamma's blog header, is the fla drought map. It updates automatically. Gettin' ugly, only gonna get uglier.
It's called "giving an opinion," but if you want to call it "ranting", that's fine. But "stereotyping"? No; doesn't quite fit the definition. Just calling it as I see it...and I don't believe any of those were incorrect.
Morning aqua9. Unfortunately, I'm up. But it's Thursday, and tomorrow is Friday. *G*
500MB:
300MB:
You'll notice a low shear region from NW Carib into the FL Peninsula as the low level to Upper level high is pushed out to the W ATL by an incoming TROF which should be by TX around this forecast time. Shear around this time frame should range from 15 to 25KTS. If TD19 becomes strong enough forecasted by both HWRF and GFDL then it could fight off enough shear to allow it to maintain its structure.
Unfortunately current WX patterns highly favor recurvature to the NE once it enters the GOM. If of course is able to sustain itself and get strong enough. Nonetheless the end resulting system should be a sheared one.
We'll just have to keep checking the upper level patterns to see how favorable things could get for further intensification, but one thing is for sure and that is that if TD19 keeps lingering across the W Carib under the Upper level anti cyclone... the better chances it will have to get stronger.
Location: 17.0°N 80.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: SE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Aquak....
Sounds like half of the posts on here...."heading for RI"..."it's gonna blow away Miami".....:)
There is hope....
It's suppose to rain here next week. Drought relief on the way.
114 hour 850mb vorticity on the 6Z GFS....
Viewing: 801 - 851
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