Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status
A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.
Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.
Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.
Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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from its previous heading of (1.1degrees south of) SouthEast
TD.19's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8.3mph(~13.4km/h)
from its previous moving speed of ~6.3mph(~10.2km/h)
Invest 99L
19Oct 06pmGMT - 17.4n83.4w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.0n83.0w*1009mb
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.6w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.6n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.3n80.9w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1005mb - ATCF
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers
Copy&paste 17.4n83.4w, 17.7n83.2w, 17.8n82.9w, 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.6w-17.6n81.2w, 17.6n81.2w-17.5n81.1w, 17.5n81.1w-17.3n80.9w, 17.3n80.9w-17.0n80.7w, rtb, puz, nbw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 15^hours
^ The southernmost(latest)line-segment and the 2 preceding line-segments individually span 3hours between reported positions
The northernmost line-segment spans 6hours between reported positions.
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...VERY INTERESTING. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
EAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY...SO GLFMEX REMAINS WIDE
OPEN. PROMINENT UPPER RIDGE PRESENT NEAR CUBA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD
WITH BROAD FLAT COAST-TO- COAST UPPER TROUGH OVER CONUS. PIECE OF
ENERGY AMPLIFIES WHILE MOVING THROUGH AFOREMENTIONED ON WEST COAST
AND THEN AMPLIFIES GRADUALLY TO BE LOCATED OVER SW U.S. FOUR CORNERS
BY TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ...MODELS INSIST ON ADVECTING WEAK SFC LOW
NWD OUT OF TROPICS AND INTO SRN GLFMEX. SPECTRAL MODELS EXHIBIT
DISSENT ON PRECISELY WHERE FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED BUT GENERAL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS THE SAME...DEEP LAYER POSITIVE THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL FEEL OVERLY MUGGY UNTIL SFC COLD
FRONT CLEANS US OUT SOMETIME NEXT THURSDAY (NEW DAY 7). LATEST
GFS...ECMWF AND GEFS SOLTN`S ALL AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO AND
EVOLUTION OF ADVANCING SW U.S. TROUGH INTO PLAINS AND THEN SHOVING
LARGE SCALE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MIDDAY
WED THROUGH EARLY THU TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ITS BEEN BRUTALLY
DRY...TOO MUCH RAIN TOO FAST IS NOT GOOD EITHER. TOO FAR OUT TO
DISCUSS RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL POSITIONING AND MAGNITUDE OF MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AND HIGH PW AIR IN PRESENCE OF STUBBORN RIDGE JUST TO
EAST PORTENDS MUCH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WHEN ADVANCING TROUGH
BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON OUR REGION. SO...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE LARGE SCALE SETUP FOR RECEIVING HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT AS JUST
DESCRIBED.
Ike. Maybe a little bitta rain for ya'll? but nuthin' like it's gonna do any good.
Say goodbye to the dry...
The only thing my rain gauge is collecting is bird droppings.
Next week looks encouraging for rain here. Then a blast of maybe the coldest air of the season late next week...into Halloween weekend.
It's been a cruel summer...
i believe those such as nea have every right to vent. i certainly a) am not arguing with anyone (and not you) and b) i'm just trying to stand up for those that assist and provide the rest of us with very important information we utilize.
i have to say in truth that i have turned to the weather underground almost entirely (as well as tracking maps, info, etc from wisconsin and nhc) to keep an eye on storms because i truly believe the weather channel has become a bad source for true information ever since nbc bought them. i hate to see the good people in this blog leave, the ones that really contribute insightful information, and might i add, FREE of charge!
so let me stress again i'm not wanting to argue with you or anyone about this point, or anything in the future. i was just quoting you because it is trained eyes like nea's that makes this blog a very valuable resource. we as participants and lurkers should stand up for them and try to end the constant bickering, downcasting, upcasting, and any other problems that arise.
again i want to thank you shikori and nea and everyone that contributes. i just wish that all of you that are starting problems (and you shall remain nameless) would either stop or leave, for everyone's sake.
anyhow, this is the last post i will make in regards to the lunacy that occurs (and will undoubtedly occur today with the current track and forecast of 99L) in here, i just wanted to tell everyone thank you for contributing and hopefully in the process i would make the bad people feel guilty or feel like they want to stop upsetting people.
now, time to sit back and watch the fireworks start as 99L aligns vertically. looks like he definitely has half-way got his act together overnight. he isn't in a hurry to move so he has time to strengthen considerably given the current variables and trends.....today shall be interesting :)
on that note, and on the previous note, i sincerely hope that all of you that contribute very valued opinions and information...well, i hope you stay. don't let the ignorant, stupid, and evil run you off....if we all ignore them they will get tired of it and go away to find greener pastures. if they think they are winning (running all of us off, getting us upset, get us to respond to them, etc) they will only be encouraged. one thing i have learned about trolls is regardless of age they are acting like 12 yr. olds, and need to be treated as such. lol
have a great day and thank you all again :)
how can I resist?
We have everything you could ever imagine. We are RainmanWeather, a fully authorized WeatherUnderground vendor.
We also have the Better Business Bureau approval.
We're just up the road here in Jacksonville, Florida. Feel free to conract us, either through the site, or using the 1-800 ph#. Tell'm Aqua sent you.
I do like that song tho.
My gauge has been collecting Leezerds.
Ya'll have a sunshiny day.
LOL...have a nice day!
56.5 outside my location.
Recon is nearing the CoC.
Thank You,
I will tell them,
yw....again, like you, i'm just callin em as i see em lol
People around here, here being LA, don't ever mention Juan. I think however, this year, the rain from even a TS would be welcome.
Yep, and will catch a lot of people off gaurd this late in the season. Most will pay little or no attention to it.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
507 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 12Z MON OCT 25 2010 - 12Z THU OCT 28 2010
USED THE 00Z/21 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 12Z/20 ECENS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH THE GEM GLOBAL
DIFFERING ONLY IN TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHARP
POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ALL THE MODELS...GFS INCLUDED...ARE NOW HONORING THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...DELAYING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THAT REGION UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR DAYS NOW...WITH THE LATEST
NEARLY CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH INDICATED OVER THE PLAINS DAY 7
SIMPLY A VARIATION ON A THEME. THERE IS STILL WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE
ULTIMATE POSITIONS OF THE INTENSE CYCLONES PRODUCED BY THIS
PATTERN...WITH SOME JUMPING NO DOUBT TO COME IN DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS. WHETHER A TROPICAL SYSTEM CAN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE EXTREME MERIDIONAL FLOW IS ANOTHER
WILDCARD.
CISCO
The biggest storms have all missed the U.S. and so it seems late in the season and over. Still, this developing storm may cause floods and even some winds in Florida.
Friday
Oct 29
Partly sunny, windy and cooler 65°Lo 37°
Saturday
Oct 30
A full day of sunshine 65°Lo 39°
Sunday
Abundant sunshine 65°Lo 40°
pssst aqua, I'll be your way next weekend.
thank god, my yard is dead. for gosh sakes i live in mobile where we get more annual rain than anyone in the nation and i haven't mowed for over 6 weeks in fear that the yard would burn out. now it is burned out.
i have never seen this dry of a summer in mobile. it has been strange, and that just made the smell of oil burning off and evaporating just that much worse.
we need the rain, badly.....but like they say, not a deluge too quick. the ground is bone dry.
Cold air following Richard.
Understood here. I have mowed once in the last ten weeks. My yard is dead. As you drive down the road all the young pine trees along the side of the road are dead, parts of grown trees are dying and dead. We need a steady drizzle for days, no deluges.
My thinking is that TD 19 will meander around for the next day or so and strengthen slowly and then start tracking west-northwest across the northwest Caribbean starting Friday night or Saturday. A track to the west-northwest with potential significant strengthening is quite possible this weekend and this system may track very close to or right over Cozumel and Cancun on Monday as a hurricane and possibly a major hurricane. After that, I think we may see TD 19 track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and track north-northeastward towards either the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle by about the middle part of next week (Wednesday/Thursday timeframe). Obviously, it’s way too early to pinpoint exactly where this will impact in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or how strong at that point.
One thing that should be noticed is that the trends in the model guidance is definitely further north with each new model cycle and there is a definite consensus now that TD 19 will stay north of Honduras. I think the 5 am ET track forecast from the National Hurricane Center may be too far south and I believe you will see the track shift further north over the next 12 to 24 hours or so.
My thinking is that TD 19 will meander around for the next day or so and strengthen slowly and then start tracking west-northwest across the northwest Caribbean starting Friday night or Saturday. A track to the west-northwest with potential significant strengthening is quite possible this weekend and this system may track very close to or right over Cozumel and Cancun on Monday as a hurricane and possibly a major hurricane. After that, I think we may see TD 19 track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and track north-northeastward towards either the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle by about the middle part of next week (Wednesday/Thursday timeframe). Obviously, it’s way too early to pinpoint exactly where this will impact in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or how strong at that point.
So, all interests in the northwestern Caribbean, especially Cozumel and Cancun should closely monitor the progress of this system. In addition, those of you on the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the progress of this system.
agreed. it has been so dry here i can't remember a foggy morning. and we always have foggy mornings usually in the summer, especially across the bay bridge. it has been so dry i cant remember when we have had fog.
we need drizzle, something to slowly soak in and moisten up for a deeper watering later on.
Good morning all,I personally think that at 7am Local we should be under a TS warning just in case,quite possibly a hurricane watch also, just my opinion though!
(~ 29.73 inHg)
Probably waiting for all the kids to get to school first lol ;-) But I agree TS warning possible this am
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