Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status
A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.
Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.
Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.
Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.
Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You have WU Mail
I would like that. Hopefully, if Richard decides to pay a visit, he will have had too many Cerveza's in the Yucatan.
Yep, I've been watching the dynamics for a last couple of phases...looking like more consensus along those lines.
What are we seeing by way of the steering mean?
Good morning, by the way...I was just singing the Pre-Cambrian Tech fight song...do you remember it? LOL
Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
HWRF DECREASING 54.2 81.4 60.3 80 -1
GFDL CONSTANT 61.8 78.4 158 235.4 -1
BAMD INCREASING 147.2 233.5 345.4 512.5 -1
LBAR INCREASING 147.5 248 298.9 266.5 -1
MM5B DECREASING 191.4 182.8 140.1 176.3 -1
HWRF is a little slower & doesn't quit make landfall at the end of the run here's GFDL (current 2nd place) yellow is Cat 3 winds the red within that is Cat 4...
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
14:30 PM IST October 21 2010
====================================
At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Giri lays centered over the same area near 17.5N 91.5E, or about 350 kms south southwest of Sittwe, Myanmar, 450 kms south of Cox Bazar, Bangladesh, and 650 kms southeast of Digha, West Bengal.
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. It would move northwards initially and then north-northeastwards and cross north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts by tomorrow evening between Teknaf, Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu, Myanmar near Sittwe Myanmar.
3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gust of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the system's center.
Satellite imagery indicates banding pattern with further organization. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over east central Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 20.0N and east of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.
Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear shows no significant change. Sea surface temperature is 28-32C and the ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, Ocean heat content is less than 100 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence around the system's center is also favorable for intensification. The system lies close to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N at 200 HPA level. There is an anticyclonic circulation over central India to the northwest at mid-tropospheric level and is expected to influence the movement of GIRI towards the northeast direction.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 18.0N 92.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 18.5N 92.5E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 19.5N 93.5E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (935 hPa) located at 20.2N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.6N 118.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 23.4N 117.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.6N 116.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.2N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 137.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Twit!! Yes, I remember it well.
The steering currents will remain weak for at least 24 to 36 hours. Then the high over the Gulf should retreat to the North and allow a more Norther movement of the system. I believe it will be a trough that MIGHT move Little Richard more to the NE.
from its previous heading of (3.2degrees east of) SouthSouthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)
Invest 99L
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.7w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w*17.6n81.6w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.5n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.6n81.2w
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.2n80.8w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.3n80.9w*1005mb
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12pmGMT - 16.5n80.7w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers. Also see comment993.
Copy&paste 17.7n83.2w, 17.8n82.9w, 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.7w, 17.5n81.2w-17.5n81.1w, 17.5n81.1w-17.2n80.8w, 17.2n80.8w-17.0n80.7w, 17.0n80.7w-16.5n80.7w, rtb, puz, nbw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 20.3N 157.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.3N 154.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.
Not happy with odds. Antennae up!
Hahahaha. Good morning Grothar and everyone else. I see that the models have taken a very dramatic shift. This is getting scarier by the moment.
LOL, Nice.
We could sure use the rain.
Told you so, told you so! How you doing Canes?
Just make sure you are all stocked up on batteries, water and Cheese Doodles. You should be OK.
Best laugh of the day .... so far.
13:22:00Z 16.567N 80.367W 962.7 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg) 402 meters
(~ 1,319 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)
No not evil, just probably have never been thru one.
Believe me it all changes after:
your community has been ripped apart,
you're sweltering in 90 degree heat with out air conditioning,
creature comforts are all gone except for the literal creatures,
insurance payments double,
contractors take over 8 months to fix your roof (if you're lucky),
someone cuts you off at a light because, oh yeah there is no light to stop at,
you scrounge around for water and decide that maybe drinking out of the toilet isn't a bad idea,
you can see the moonlight thru your roof and under an umbrella,
you have to protect your house with a gun because looters might be out to get at the little you have left,
etc.
Yeah, are you sure? OK, enjoy!
Tropical Cyclone "RICHARD"
I was saying it too lol. No hurricane experience should be without beef jerky for me either. I'll be stocking up on what you said, including some Mr. Pibb, Cool Ranch Doritos, and some salsa con queso.
Cyclonic Storm Giri
Looks like they are trying to locate the center.
Got to calm people down sometime with a little levity. Glad you got a chuckle.
Sorry, that's too "Tricky"
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