Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms rip the U.S.; Richard dies in the Gulf of Mexico
Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains are sweeping through the nation's midsection today, thanks to an explosively deepening low pressure system over Minnesota. The spectacular storm is expected to bottom out at a central pressure of 960 mb later today, the type of central pressure one commonly encounters in Category 2 hurricanes. A powerful cold front trails southwards from the storm, and this cold front has spawned an impressive squall line studded with violent thunderstorms. As many as eleven simultaneous tornado warnings have been issued late this morning for these thunderstorms, from southern Michigan to northern Mississippi. So far, the tornadoes have been embedded within the squall line, and these type of tornadoes are typically weaker EF-0 to EF-1 twisters. However, as the day progresses and the sun's heating adds energy to the atmosphere, strong EF-2 or EF-3 tornadoes are likely, if discrete supercell thunderstorms separate from the squall line and begin to evolve. So far, six reports of tornadoes touching down have been received, but only minor damage has been reported. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern Michigan, eastern Indiana, and western Ohio in their "High Risk" area for severe weather. "High Risk" days occur less than five times per year, on average, and are unusual in the fall. Fall storms this intense only occur perhaps once every 5 - 10 years. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak using our Severe Weather Page and Tornado page.
Figure 1. This morning's severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts most of Indiana and Western Ohio into their highest category for severe weather.
Richard dies
Tropical Depression Richard emerged into the Gulf of Mexico this morning after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, passage over the Yucatan so weakened the storm that it has officially been declared dead by NHC. There was too much dry air and wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico to allow Richard to regenerate. Richard hit central Belize Sunday night as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for $18 million in damage, but no deaths were reported. Belize lost about 1/3 of its orange crop to Richard's high winds. Electrical power is still out to 30% of the country, but is expected to be fully restored by tonight.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 4:35pm EDT 10/25/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Richard was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, with a band of heavy thunderstorms in an arc to the north and east of the storm. This hybrid subtropical system is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) NHC is giving 90L a 30% of developing into a subtropical depression or storm by Thursday.
Next update
I'll have an update on Wednesday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll probably talk tomorrow about the severe weather outbreak, but later this week I'll talk about what a shift at the Hurricane Center is like. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division later this week, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index
I'm still all boarded up. Is it safe to come out now?
AL, 90, 2010102712, , BEST, 0, 265N, 409W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Depends on the neighborhood you live in!
only 3 inches?? thats not much for a tropical place like key west i would think! we had 12 inches here in central fl panhandle in one hour one time. caskets popped out of the ground and floated off. it wasnt even a tropical storm. it was may 7 2000 i think. may 7 for sure. not sure about the year.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Where does a system like the one that spun up in the midwest get all that energy from?
I know the jet stream played a significant role, but I'm curious as to the full dynamics of this one as well. TIA!
Nope,its headed up into Canada,we're just getting the cold front moving through
NWS says the airport received 3.44" yesterday, breaking the 10/26 record of 2.01" from 1879. Normal is 0.12", so you were a little over that... ;-) FWIW, that takes Key West up to 35.8" for the year, meaning you received nearly 10% of your yearly total yesterday. Woo-hoo...
Storms like the one over the upper midwest derive their energy from the pressure differential; in addition the temperature gradient provides energy and instability (a cold front behind nosing into warmer ahead)...if you look at the WV loops you can see that it has been pulling moisture in from the GOM to complete the scenario.
Look at how closely packed the lines around the low are in this image...an indication of the pressure gradient and hence, the energy and winds associated with it.
This explanation is really over simplfied, but it gives you a fair idea
Should get the Yellow Circle coming soon. Shear is high to its West in the EAstern Caribbean, but conditions will improve as it move toward the Central Caribbean and it appears it should hug near the South American Coast. Models are hinting at something developing in that area in about 7 days. This is the feature to watch.
It gets its energy from the clash of differing air masses... it's referred to as Baroclinic...
BAROCLINIC- Distinct air mass regions exist. Fronts separate warmer from colder air. In a synoptic scale baroclinic environment you will find the polar jet in the vicinity, troughs of low pressure (mid-latitude cyclones) and frontal boundaries. There are clear density gradients in a baroclinic environment caused by the fronts. Any time you are near a mid-latitude cyclone you are in a baroclinic environment. Part of the word baroclinic is clinic. If the atmosphere is out of balance, it is baroclinic, just as if a person felt out of balance they would need to go to a clinic.
Yep, simply put Cold air Sinks while Warm air rises. The temparature tries to balance out nearly the same as the Pressure trying to balance, the result is a Strong Low. As, Floodman said in this case its a combination of both things combinded together.
Guess what I was looking for was the anomolous ingredient leading to it's unprecendented intensity.
My interpretation from your responses is that it wasn't so much one ingredient, as it was the location and timing of several ingredients...
Thanks for asking it! I was curious as to what some of the Profis on here had to say as well.
If someone doesn't answer your question at first, feel free to ask again. Sometimes it gets overlooked and burried so you need to knock the dust off and repost it.
Welcome to Dr M's Blog!
Yeah, most folks don't know that the "West" in "Key West" has nothing to do with the cardinal direction. It is, rather, the anglicized sound-alike of the Spanish "hueso", which means "bone"; the island was so dry and barren that it was used as nothing more than a burial ground by early Americans. Lots of people who've never been picture every island in the Caribbean as a lush, verdant tropical paradise, a fact which has led many first-time travelers to disappointment when they find nothing but one bare and arid patch of weathered coral after another... ;-)
So...my money for now is on the yellow AOI at around 23N / 54W. There was good convection yesterday, but almost no low level spin. However, that's no longer the case: the RGB loop clearly shows that the low has reached to the surface, and is wrapping up as the whole thing moves a bit south of due west. Too, while there is some evident shear, it doesn't appear as high as it is for 90L, and the SSTs are a bit higher and deeper in the area.
Reckon we'll see, though...
Well, that's what I meant about the burial ground; the bones were apparently left scattered atop the sun-baked coral, or buried so shallowly that birds and other creatures could easily find them and scatter them. The bottom line: I love the Keys, and especially Key West, but it's no jungle-covered rainforest. ;-)
Interesting day and night here in the Great North Woods!
Some really good winds whipping off of the Big Lake Superior yesterday and today! Here are some wind speeds from a local report.
... Marine observations...
Rock of Ages /roam4/ 78 10/27/2010 300 am
Stannard rock /stdm4/ 71 10/27/2010 600 am
Northern Lake Michigan buoy 56 10/26/2010 950 PM
W lk Superior buoy /45006/ 63 10/26/2010 700 PM
mid lk Superior buoy /45001/ 51 10/27/2010 505 am
E lk Superior buoy /45004/ 56 10/27/2010 400 am
At my work we have had siding ripped off. Numerous reports around the area of downed lines from trees iwht a great of trees on fire, a couple of trees in apartment buildings and a report of a roof blowing off.
Yeehaw!
here in north fla we have a lot of desert plant and animal species. like gopher tortoise and diamondbacks and prickly pear and scrub jays. my house is just sand sand sand. thats why the drought is killing us.
Viewing: 451 - 501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index