Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Shucks...we know the facts but in Belize we were hoping we could breathe a sigh of relief by now!

Is anyone else having trouble getting satellites from SSD?

ANOTHER storm that doesn't affect the USA. Amazing. I was hoping this could go NNW and bring some rain to drought-stricken florida.

Thanks for the update, Sir.

Just saw the orange area on the NHC website, and came here for the rest of the story!

No, no, no, no, no!!!! I realize mid November is still technically Hurricane Season. But usually it is a pretty safe to book your cruise at this time!!

giant swells are being generated by the western atlantic storm it looks massive

Quoting winter123:
ANOTHER storm that doesn't affect the USA. Amazing. I was hoping this could go NNW and bring some rain to drought-stricken florida.

Good for you guys bad for us. I have to check but I think this is a record for Belize to have 3 named storms making landfall here in one year.

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Quoting belizewunderfan:

Good for you guys bad for us. I have to check but I think this is a record for Belize to have 3 named storms making landfall here in one year.

Karl did not make land fall on Belize but very much afected the north of the country

thanks for update doc

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters

XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.56N/75.98W


once near 80 w may stall for a bit or becom quasi stationary

i think 94 will take a Matthew/Richard track.

94 becomes quasi stationary near 80 w by 72 hrs expect models to change and become better establish as to a more likly track by then

things can and will change

SHIPS makes 94L a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane in 72 hours.

this is also dipicted by NHC also in 72 hrs

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
94 becomes quasi stationary near 80 w by 72 hrs expect models to change and become better establish as to a more likly track by then

things can and will change

Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?

Quoting RMM34667:
No, no, no, no, no!!!! I realize mid November is still technically Hurricane Season. But usually it is a pretty safe to book your cruise at this time!!

Already booked! Will be admiring the Hurricane- stricken islands and all the damage leftover while basking in the sun drinking a Pina colada while wearing shades! AH ha ha ha ha.

Very rough surf off of DBS today and a lot the waves are breaking far from shore. Supposed to be even rougher tomorrow thanks to the low in the Atlantic.

Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?

Or go to the West Coast of Fl. LOL

Quoting belizeit:

Gee, those models are definitely agreed XD.

Quoting scott39:
Do you think 94 will barely go over Honduras or go N of it?

well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more

255

WHXX01 KWBC 121813

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1813 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20101112 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

101112 1800 101113 0600 101113 1800 101114 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.0W 10.5N 77.9W 10.3N 78.2W

BAMD 11.1N 76.2W 11.1N 77.3W 11.0N 78.5W 10.8N 79.9W

BAMM 11.1N 76.2W 10.9N 77.3W 10.4N 78.3W 9.9N 79.2W

LBAR 11.1N 76.2W 11.4N 77.0W 12.3N 77.5W 13.7N 77.5W

SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

101114 1800 101115 1800 101116 1800 101117 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.3N 78.3W 11.6N 78.3W 14.6N 79.1W 17.2N 81.1W

BAMD 10.6N 81.4W 10.1N 84.6W 9.9N 87.9W 10.2N 92.2W

BAMM 9.5N 79.9W 9.4N 80.9W 10.7N 82.0W 12.2N 83.5W

LBAR 15.2N 76.8W 18.4N 73.4W 21.5N 70.8W 24.5N 69.7W

SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS

DSHP 56KTS 69KTS 69KTS 66KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 75.4W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 74.5W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if you look at surface map i posted for 72 hr mark shows a cold front swing down into GOM that may become an important player also that said front should move down to yuc in a line ne ward up over fla but stall and become occulted so we have to watch a few things to be sure after the next 24 we will know more

maybe I LOL about FL. too soon!

That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott

If the 2010 season kicks out #20, will it be second to 2005?

Quoting FtMyersgal:
That stopped being funny about 2 months ago Scott

Ok...

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


No. It will be third, behind the 21 of 1933.

And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!

If 94L becomes Virginie we'd still be 3rd place, but we'd break the named storm tie with 1995 and 1887.

Still, its pretty extreme that 2 of the top 3 most active hurricane seasons have happened in the last 5 years.

Its possible that 2010 will end up with a final toll of 21-13-5. I think Walter will form at the very end of this month.

we are at 22 including depressions or non named systems if we get v and then w it will make 24

Quoting scott39:
And still amazing to me that not one hurricane hit the USA Conus!

we are not finished yet

I say we go ahead and try to break the 2005 record!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are not finished yet

True, But I would say the odds are against it at this point. But you never know with mother Nature.

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
We need 10 named storms starting before the end of December to break the 2005 record. I'm pretty sure that won't happen.

I should have thrown the Sarcasm Flag up.

SEASONAL FORECAST MADE IN APRIL 2010

KEEPEROFTHEGATE 23 TOTAL,14 HURRICANES,7 MAJORS,3 CAT FIVES

Afternoon everybody. Is this AOI the Twave we were watching earlier this week? I lost track of things since Monday / Tuesday....

FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW. While there has not been a 'Landfalling' US hurricane this year, Earl made a Direct hit on the Outer banks.

Still, we shouldn't mainly focus on how the US wasn't hit this year. Somehow the news finds it right to do that though. How about the fact out of the 19 storms we have had this year.. 12 of them made a landfall? Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Fiona, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas.

Fiona didn't make landfall.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Fiona didn't make landfall.

Ah your right it didn't. Prompted TS warnings in the islands though.

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Did Tomas's eye hit St. Lucia or not?

He made landfall at Barbados and the Turks and Caicos. His eyewall grazed the island, but just a direct hit, no landfall.