Record quiet tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air at middle levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images show just a few clumps of heavy thunderstorms, and no sign of a surface circulation. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, which is greatly hampering development. NHC is giving 94L just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but the dry air surrounding 94L is probably too great too allow development. 94L may bring heavy rains to Honduras on Wednesday, and Belize on Thursday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.
A record quiet typhoon season
While the Atlantic has had its third busiest season on record this year, it has been a record quiet year for tropical cyclones in both the Eastern and Western Pacific. In the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 24.5 named storms, 16 typhoons, and 4 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 14 named storms, 8 typhoons, and 1 supertyphoon. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying the records for fewest named storms and fewest typhoons, since there are no current threat areas, and none of the models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next ten days.
A record quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season
In the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. There is a good chance that the 2010 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is over, since we are already into mid-November, and November storms are quite rare in the Eastern Pacific. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water. Still, it is quite remarkable that both of these ocean basins are having record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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thanks for update doc
TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
KOG.. what does this mean????
They say its going to happen here in the 22nd.. but I don't know what it is... funny rain??
14Nov 12pmGMT - 11.6n77.6w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
14Nov 06pmGMT - 12.0n78.0w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
15Nov 12amGMT - 12.1n78.4w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
15Nov 06pmGMT - 11.9n78.0w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
15Nov 12pmGMT - 12.0n77.3w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
15Nov 06pmGMT - 11.8n76.7w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
16Nov 12amGMT - 12.1n76.8w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
16Nov 06amGMT - 12.2n77.3w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
16Nov 12pmGMT - 12.3n77.9w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
Copy&paste 11.6n77.6w-12.0n78.0w, 12.0n78.0w-12.1n78.4w, 12.1n78.4w-11.9n78.0w, 11.9n78.0w-12.0n77.3w, 12.0n77.3w-11.8n76.7w, 11.8n76.7w-12.1n76.8w, 12.1n76.8w-12.2n77.3w, 12.2n77.3w-12.3n77.9w, gja, pva, adz, baq into the GreatCircleMapper for alook at the directions and distances travelled over the last 48hours.
It looks like they are trying to form a circulation, but are being dragged to the west too fast to complete the loop.
Beautiful and very windy day here in North FL.
You might want to make note that those temps are in Celsius. ;-)
That is true, mind you.. I could be wrong... but almost every country around you with the exception of Belize uses Celsius don't they?
Edit:
Throughout the world, except in the United States and a few other countries, for example, Belize,[19] the Celsius temperature scale is used for practically all purposes. The only exceptions are some specialist fields (e.g., low-temperature physics, astrophysics, light temperature in photography) where the closely related Kelvin scale dominates instead.
Quite often I still do the conversion in my head also.
1000 AM EST TUE 16 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-168
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1645Z
D. 14.0N 82.0W
E. 17/2030Z TO 18/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
18/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 16/2100Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/1130Z.
Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport
Last Update on 16 Nov 7:53 MST
Partly Cloudy
42°F
(6°C) Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: WSW 33 G 44 MPH
Barometer: 29.70 in (1005.00 mb)
Dewpoint: 33°F (1°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
Cartagena, CO (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 15 sec ago
25 °C
Heavy Drizzle
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the SSW
Pressure: 1013 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 1.5 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 213 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 37 min 10 sec ago
29 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 11 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the NNW
Pressure: 1012 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 33 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Few 609 m
Scattered Clouds 3048 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
Enable Disable
Updated: 38 min 29 sec ago
28 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 11 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the SSE
Pressure: 1014 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 32 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 12 out of 16
Clouds: Few 548 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 m
( just for you, Neap )
Updated: 35 min 52 sec ago
30 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the WNW
Pressure: 1013 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 36 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 457 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 m
Rapid Fire Updates:
I see NHC cancelled the Recon and rescheduled for tomorrow, must still be watching 94L closely!
ABNT20 KNHC 161736
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
% getting lower/
The real tough part is for surveying and folks dealing with the property and the public.
Once managers shift away from millions of gallons a day and acre feet, to cubic meters and start to think that way, we can take better advantage of advancements in understanding from the rest of the world.
Why leave so soon? This one's not over yet...
Click for larger image:
Oh, no - more "unprecedented" weather events to add to the list, as the earth gets warmer...
Probably all over for 94L
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