Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Massive flooding in Australia cuts off city of 75,000
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:52 GMT le 03 janvier 2011 +2
The arrival of the new year has brought continued misery to northeast Australia, where unprecedented flooding continues in the wake of weeks of torrential rains. The floods have killed at least ten people and covered an area the size of France and Germany combined, cutting off the coastal city of Rockhampton. Today, the military was forced to fly in food, water, and other supplies into Rockhampton, a city of 75,000, due to the lack of unflooded roads into the city. The local airport, all access roads, and all rail lines into the city are closed. The flooding has affected at least 21 other towns, and 200,000 people in northeast Australia. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard stated last week, "Some communities are seeing flood waters higher than they've seen in decades, and for some communities flood waters have never reached these levels before [in] the time that we have been recording floods." According to the National Climatic Data Center, springtime in Australia (September - November) had precipitation 125% of normal--the wettest spring in the country since records began 111 years ago. Some sections of coastal Queensland received over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain from September through November. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. The heavy rains are due, in part, to the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. The relatively warm waters that accumulate off the northeast coast of Australia during a La Niña typically cause heavy rains over Queensland.


Figure 1. Comparison of river conditions in Queensland from today to December 30, 2010. While some rivers have fallen below major flood stage, the Fitzroy River at Rockhampton is rising, and may peak at levels not seen since 1918 on Wednesday. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Rainfall in Queensland, Australia for December, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The rains over Queensland continued yesterday and today, with many of the flooded regions receiving 1/2 - 1 inch (about 12 - 25 mm) of rain. Total rainfall amounts in the flood region over the past month are generally in the 16 - 24 inch range (400 - 600 mm). Predicted rainfall amounts for the next two days in the flooded region are less than 1/2 inch (12 mm), which should allow for river levels to peak by Tuesday or Wednesday, then slowly fall. However, heavy rains are predicted to affect the area again by Thursday, and it may be several weeks before the summer rains ease enough to allow all of Queensland's rivers to retreat below flood stage. Damage to infrastructure in Australia has been estimated at over $1 billion by the government, and economists have estimated the Australian economy will suffer an additional $6 billion in damage over the coming months due to reduced exports, according to insurance company AIR Worldwide. Queensland is Australia's top coal-producing state, and coal mining and delivery operations are being severely hampered by the flooding. Damage to agriculture is currently estimated at $400 million, and is expected to rise.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Flood
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1. RipplinH2O 14:00 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Thanks Jeff...
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2. Patrap 14:04 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Raw Video: Queensland Flooding Worsens


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3. fireflymom 14:16 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
From drought to floods they have had a tough year, may it all balance out soon for them.
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4. HurricaneKatrina 14:22 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
IMagine if that fell as snow! 40 ft. It can happen in a global superstorm.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/show.html
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
If the gulf current shuts down "The Day After Tomorrow" will likely happen in real life.
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5. Patrap 14:25 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
A Bad Movie isnt science

Its just a bad movie.
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7. Patrap 14:33 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Dramatic footage of the Queensland floods

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8. Neapolitan 14:35 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
How sad, how tragic. The current La Niña seems to be the primary motivator for the Queensland rains from what I've read here and elsewhere. However, given that Australia this spring has seen its most rain in at least 111 years, it's fair to say that 2011 is starting out on the same note as 2010. That is, a time of increasing and more extreme weather events all across the globe--which is precisely what was and is predicted to happen as the planet's oceans and atmosphere heat up due to increasing concentrations of GhGs, namely CO2.

And, personally, I don't think we've seen anything yet...
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9. HurricaneKatrina 14:38 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
A Bad Movie isnt science

Its just a bad movie.

1. Its a great movie.
2. The science its based on is not bad. The superstorm is a plausible THEORY but the gulf current could shut off and change the climate in weeks.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091130112421.htm
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10. HurricaneKatrina 14:39 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
How sad, how tragic. The current La Niña seems to be the primary motivator for the Queensland rains from what I've read here and elsewhere. However, given that Australia this spring has seen its most rain in at least 111 years, it's fair to say that 2011 is starting out on the same note as 2010. That is, a time of increasing and more extreme weather events all across the globe--which is precisely what was and is predicted to happen as the planet's oceans and atmosphere heat up due to increasing concentrations of GhGs, namely CO2.

And, personally, I don't think we've seen anything yet...
When will it be officially anounced that 2010 was the hottest on record?
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11. Patrap 14:46 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
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12. CycloneUK 14:50 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
December 2010 Temperature anomalies[C]:

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13. hcubed 14:54 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
How sad, how tragic. The current La Niña seems to be the primary motivator for the Queensland rains from what I've read here and elsewhere. However, given that Australia this spring has seen its most rain in at least 111 years, it's fair to say that 2011 is starting out on the same note as 2010. That is, a time of increasing and more extreme weather events all across the globe--which is precisely what was and is predicted to happen as the planet's oceans and atmosphere heat up due to increasing concentrations of GhGs, namely CO2.

And, personally, I don't think we've seen anything yet...


Austrailia seems to get a lot of severe weather - they still hold the record for most consecutive days above 100 °F (37.8 °C): 160 days; Marble Bar, Western Australia from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.

No place else on Earth has come close since...
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14. Patrap 14:57 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
A short clip from chase footage as Hurricane Elena's textbook eye moves over Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of September 2, 1985.

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15. Neapolitan 15:21 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting hcubed:


Austrailia seems to get a lot of severe weather - they still hold the record for most consecutive days above 100 °F (37.8 °C): 160 days; Marble Bar, Western Australia from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.

No place else on Earth has come close since...

That was a long one, alright, but then again, Marble Bar is in Western Australia's desert, where long heat spells are the norm. These past few years, on the other hand, have seen incredible extremes of temperature and precipitation all over : the unprecedented heat wave in Moscow--a decidedly non-desert region; the unprecedented flooding in Pakistan and Australia; the unprecedented "Snowmageddon" storms in the eastern US; unprecedented drought in the Amazon basin; unprecedented cold in Europe; unprecedented all-time record heat in numerous nations; and so on, and so forth.
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17. HurricaneKatrina 15:45 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting P451:
Something is rotten in the state of Arkansas.


===
Arkansas officials are investigating the death of an estimated 100,000 fish in the state's northwest, but suspect disease was to blame, a state spokesman said Sunday.

Dead drum fish floated in the water and lined the banks of a 20-mile stretch of the Arkansas River near Ozark, about 125 miles northwest of Little Rock, said Keith Stephens of the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. A tugboat operator discovered the fish kill Thursday night, and fisheries officials collected some of the dying animals to conduct tests.
=====

Ozark is about 125 miles west of the town of Beebe, where game wardens are trying to find out why up to 5,000 blackbirds fell from the sky just before midnight New Year's Eve.

=====


A tornado would be my guess. The birds probably got caught in one and were dropped downwind.
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18. ILwthrfan 15:45 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Hudson Bay and Greenland 14-18 degrees Celsius above average for an entire month of december!!!!!!!! I too agree with Neopolitan that we have yet to see the worst of what is yet to come, also just a side not with CycloneUK that shows a pretty clear relationship between locations of the worlds most dense areas of industrialization proceded by areas nearby experiencing radical temperature anomalies, East coast of US, all of Europe and India & China coming up fast. You can also see a lack of temperature anomilies in the southern hemisphere where the lack of continential landmass and therefor less industrial zones to pollute the surrounding areas. Question becomes can we even fix what we broke?
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19. HurricaneKatrina 15:53 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Hudson Bay and Greenland 14-18 degrees Celsius above average for an entire month of december!!!!!!!! I too agree with Neopolitan that we have yet to see the worst of what is yet to come, also just a side not with CycloneUK that shows a pretty clear relationship between locations of the worlds most dense areas of industrialization proceded by areas nearby experiencing radical temperature anomalies, East coast of US, all of Europe and India & China coming up fast. You can also see a lack of temperature anomilies in the southern hemisphere where the lack of continential landmass and therefor less industrial zones to pollute the surrounding areas. Question becomes can we even fix what we broke?
CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere so its warming effects should be the same everywhere. The only reason polluted areas might be warming faster is black carbon. THe high anomalies in the northern hemisphere are due to arctic amplification. Hudson bay has not froze over. Instead of ice that reflects sunlight water absorbs it.
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21. Neapolitan 16:16 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Question becomes can we even fix what we broke?

Personally, I think we could, but it would take an Apollo Program/Manhattan Project type of effort, and the political will for that simply doesn't exist in this country. The fossil fuel industry has spent billions in an effort to buy politicians, deride the science, and confuse the issue, all in an effort to convince the American people that things are just fine the way they are. And they've thus far been very successful.

That's very unfortunate.

So, I think we could do something about it, but we won't--at least not until it's too late (which, by some accounts, may happen sooner than we think). The time to put a thicker hull and more lifeboats on the Titanic was before it left the dock in Southampton, not after it had already struck the iceberg...
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22. HurricaneKatrina 16:19 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Even more incredibly, Hudson Bay is still only a little over half-covered with ice, and half of the freeze-up season has passed:



Note that ice extent (as appears on maps) appears greater, but most of the ice appears to be so-called "rotten ice"; thin, slushy, fragmented ice near the melting point (Hudson Bay alone also accounts for almost half of the total Arctic sea ice anomaly).

Even if it does freeze up it will melt quickly come melt season because it wont have had time to thicken. This years sea ice extent will likely be lower than last years.
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23. JRRP 16:27 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
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25. Orcasystems 16:30 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Complete Update





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26. JRRP 16:30 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
How sad, how tragic. The current La Niña seems to be the primary motivator for the Queensland rains from what I've read here and elsewhere. However, given that Australia this spring has seen its most rain in at least 111 years, it's fair to say that 2011 is starting out on the same note as 2010. That is, a time of increasing and more extreme weather events all across the globe--which is precisely what was and is predicted to happen as the planet's oceans and atmosphere heat up due to increasing concentrations of GhGs, namely CO2.

And, personally, I don't think we've seen anything yet...

en serio ??
y que provoco esas lluvias extremas hace 111 años ?
el CO2 tambien ??
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27. Orcasystems 16:31 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
When will it be officially anounced that 2010 was the hottest on record?


As soon as they cherry pick the data to make it so.
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30. Orcasystems 16:40 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:


You have proof this has occurred before?

I can pick probably hundreds if not thousands of denial sites this instant actually doing that and claiming to be accurate.

Its irresponsible to make such claims with what is at stake.


They are both guilty of it... both sides of the fence. Both have been caught.... both crying Wolf.

I no longer believe either side.. is it happening... yes.. is it "totally" man made.. IMHO no.

Will nature survive yes... will man survive.. probably not, but thats evolution.

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32. Orcasystems 16:52 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting JFLORIDA:



Really no - they have not. No COMPLETE dataset disputes AGW. As more information has been gained it has been incorporated into the science.

Competent management decisions need to be made to reduce the impact of climate change.


So you are stating... based on fact.. that GW is entirely man made?
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33. Inyo 16:53 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
I honestly think we are triggering a long-established and powerful negative feedback event and the greenhouse warming we have caused will accelerate the coming of the next ice age. Shifting jet streams caused by lack of Arctic ice will dramatically increase snow cover and albedo over North America and Eurasia, while at the same time melting ice off of Greenland and weakening the thermohaline.

Don't get me wrong, I think we ARE warming the climate (in addition to natural factors) and we should try to stop as soon as possible. However, if the above is true, it's certainly too late.
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35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 16:54 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting Orcasystems:


As soon as they cherry pick the data to make it so.
CHERRY PICKING NOT TILL JUNE
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36. JRRP 16:57 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
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37. BobinTampa 17:00 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
The Day After Tomorrow was a GREAT movie? Wow, your standards are low. Forget which side of the fence you're on and the science involved, that was a TERRIBLE movie.

And I actually like disaster movies.
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39. Orcasystems 17:03 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Seems to me that he still believes that "Climategate" uncovered a huge conspiracy - not, if he has actually listened to the news (unless it is Faux News, which lies about everything they don't agree with).


A. I don't listen to Fox news. I personally think it ranks right up there with the national Enquirer.

B. Did it uncover a huge conspiracy, No. Did it uncover questionable to say the least (if not some out right BS)data, Yes.

Did it do almost irreparable damage to the faith in "GW Scientists" you bet your butt it did.

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42. ILwthrfan 17:05 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere so its warming effects should be the same everywhere. The only reason polluted areas might be warming faster is black carbon. THe high anomalies in the northern hemisphere are due to arctic amplification. Hudson bay has not froze over. Instead of ice that reflects sunlight water absorbs it.


Good point about the ice acting as relfectant, and yes the atmosphere does mix, but there are still much greater densities over the industrialized parts of the world. The mid troposphere shows very high concentrations right over the industrial belts of the world.

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44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 17:15 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
you know the funny part by the time everyone is done debating if its happening or not it will be too late if not already
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45. Inyo 17:24 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Michael, I just don't think 'all ice ages' are caused by orbital cycles. Like I said it's just a gut feeling and I can't back it up with science. I wouldn't be all that surprised if it got hotter like most people predict, but if you think you or anyone else knows how that will happen, well, I don't agree with that.

Just as a reminder, YES we are warming the climate and need to do something about it. I don't believe the models can predict much beyond the fact that we are messing with the climate and it will almost certainly be detrimental to our species.

The snow cover map you posted doesn't cover 09 or 10, which isn't surprising since they just happened/are still in progress. But, these years are the first years the weird jet stream popped up to this extent.

Your tone seemed a bit hostile, i don't think that is necessary. I am not an AGW denialist, I just think things might unfold a bit differently than we think. We'll see; the next few years will be very interesting :(
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46. Inyo 17:26 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you know the funny part by the time everyone is done debating if its happening or not it will be too late if not already


yeah, that was the whole reason the oil companies and politicians turned good science into a 'debate', wasn't it. Unfortunately for most humans and other life forms on the planet, it seems to have worked just as planned.
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48. AtHomeInTX 17:39 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Thanks DRM. Been watching videos of the flooding, the ones Pat posted and others. Seems like town after town is going under. It's scaring up some ghosts for me and I'm sure many others. Doesn't matter where it happens. It just sucks! :(

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51. Inyo 17:45 GMT le 03 janvier 2011    
Well, I have seen some other data that is different, but I don't know where to find it offhand so I'll leave it at that. I did misread that graph, I guess. It isn't surprising that ice in June has lessened since warmer late spring/ summer temperatures are a big part of this all.

It still looks to me that winter snow pack is increasing even though it melts off more in the summer. I guess that is to be expected. Again, I think the new things we are seeing are too new to show up on that.

I'm not 'listening to HurricaneKatrina' too much, I haven't really noticed many of their blog posts since I am only a sporadic poster.

Since the thermohaline spans the whole ocean, why are changes limited to the northern Atlantic?

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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