Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Globe's coral reefs take second worst beating on record during 2010

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:50 GMT le 07 janvier 2011

Record warm ocean temperatures across much of Earth's tropical oceans during the summer of 2010 created the second worst year globally for coral-killing bleaching episodes. The warm waters, fueled in part by the El Niño phenomena, caused the most coral bleaching since 1998, when 16 percent of the world's reefs were killed off. "Clearly, we are on track for this to be the second worst (bleaching) on record," NOAA coral expert Mark Eakin in an interview last month. "All we're waiting on now is the body count." The summer 2010 bleaching episodes were worst in Southeast Asia, where El Niño warming of the tropical ocean waters during the first half of the year was significant. In Indonesia's Aceh province, 80% of the bleached corals died, and Malaysia closed several popular dive sites after nearly all the coral were damaged by bleaching. However, in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands, coral bleaching was not as severe as experienced in 2005, according to National Park Service fisheries biologist Jeff Miller. I'll discuss the reasons for this in a future blog post. In other portions of the Caribbean, such as Venezuela and Panama, coral bleaching was worse than that experienced in 2005.

Figure 1. An example of coral bleaching that occurred during the record-strength 1997-1998 El Niño event. Image credit: Craig Quirolo, Reef Relief/Marine Photobank, in Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs

What is coral bleaching?
Coral bleaching is a whitening of the corals that occurs when stresses such as high water temperatures, increased water acidity, or pollution disturbs the symbiotic relationship between the corals and the algae that live inside them. Bleaching episodes occur when ocean temperatures rise above 85 - 87°F (29.5 - 30.5°C.) Peak warming events took place in the western Indian Ocean and north-western Pacific in 1997/98, in the north of Australia and central Pacific during 2003/04, and in the Caribbean in 2005. About half of the reefs affected by bleaching in these episodes have recovered, and one recent study cautions that non-lethal bleaching episodes and subsequent recovery of corals is often under-reported.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef at risk
With summer now in full swing in the Southern Hemisphere, coral bleaching concern now shifts to Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Ocean temperatures along the reef are currently up to 1°C above average, due, in part, to the current moderate to strong La Niña event. NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has issued its highest level of coral bleaching alert for the northern 2/3 of the Great Barrier Reef, since the La Niña event is predicted to persist into at least April. Also of concern is the tremendous run-off occurring in the wake of the record flooding that has affected the neighboring Australian province of Queensland. While the floods have now peaked and the rivers of Queensland are now falling, the $5 billion disaster dumped a large amount of sediments, pollutants, fertilizers, and pesticides into the southern portion of the Great Barrier Reef, and this will act to increase the stress on the corals. However, the floods may end up indirectly benefiting some portions of the Great Barrier Reef. The cloud cover and strong winds that accompanied the flooding rain storms also acted to cool the waters along the reef. According to an analysis I did of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre global ocean temperature data, sea surface temperatures along the southern portion of the reef, between 15°S and 20°S latitude, were the warmest ever for September, 1.27°C above average. These waters cooled significantly, relative to average, during October and November, and were just 0.12°C warmer than average during November. Cooler waters will mean less potential for coral bleaching, though the pollution in the flood run-off water may end up killing some corals.

Figure 2. Forecast stress on coral due to warm ocean temperatures for Australia, Jan - Apr 2011. The northern 2/3 of the Great Barrier Reef are under the highest alert level for coral bleaching. Waters are cooler along the southern portion of the reef, due, in part, to the storms that have brought record flooding to portions of Queensland, Australia. Image credit: NOAA Coral Reef Watch.

Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: grim
The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent since 1950. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Coral loss has been the most severe in Earth's hottest ocean, the Indian Ocean. Up to 90% of coral cover has been lost in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Tanzania and in the Seychelles. Global warming has heated up most of the tropical ocean surface waters by about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the past 50 years, and the remarkable bleaching episodes of 1998 and 2010 both occurred when strong (natural) El Niño episodes heated up Pacific tropical waters to record levels. If the Earth continues to heat up this century as expected, coral bleaching episodes will grow more frequent and intense, particularly during strong El Niño episodes. The twin stresses of ocean acidification and increasing ocean temperatures will probably mean that by 2050, it will be difficult for any coral reefs to recover when subject to additional stresses posed by pollution or major storms, according to a talk presented by Stanford climate scientist Ken Caldeira at last month's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting.

Figure 3. Departure of sea surface temperature in the Australian region over the past one hundred years, year-by-year (red line), and decade-by-decade (grey bars.) The 2010 value is preliminary and does not include data for December 2010. If ocean temperatures and ocean acidity continue to rise in Australian waters at the same pace as has occurred over the past 100 years, the Great Barrier Reef will be in significant danger by 2050. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Coral expert J.E.N. Veron, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, had this to say in an excellent interview he did with Yale Environment 360 last year: "the science is clear: Unless we change the way we live, the Earth's coral reefs will be utterly destroyed within our children's lifetimes.

"You may well feel that dire predictions about anything almost always turn out to be exaggerations. You may think there may be something in it to worry about, but it won't be as bad as doomsayers like me are predicting. This view is understandable given that only a few decades ago I, myself, would have thought it ridiculous to imagine that reefs might have a limited lifespan on Earth as a consequence of human actions. It would have seemed preposterous that, for example, the Great Barrier Reef--the biggest structure ever made by life on Earth--could be mortally threatened by any present or foreseeable environmental change. Yet here I am today, humbled to have spent the most productive scientific years of my life around the rich wonders of the underwater world, and utterly convinced that they will not be there for our children's children to enjoy unless we drastically change our priorities and the way we live."

Reefs are the ocean's canaries and we must hear their call. This call is not just for themselves, for the other great ecosystems of the ocean stand behind reefs like a row of dominoes. If coral reefs fail, the rest will follow in rapid succession, and the Sixth Mass Extinction will be upon us--and will be of our making.

I might add that not only are reefs the ocean's canaries, they are incredibly valuable in their own right. According to the World Meteorological Organization, coral reefs provide economic services--jobs, food and tourism--estimated to be worth $30 billion per year. NOAA put this figure at twelve times higher, $375 billion each year. Corals cover just 0.2% of the world's oceans, but contain about 25% of all marine species.

Next post
I'll be back with a new post on Tuesday at the latest.

Check out wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on the notable weather extremes of December 2010. It was truly an extreme month!

Jeff Masters

Coral Bleaching. (Dawnlisa)

Since the end of April the coral in the Andaman sea has started bleaching due to the increase in sea water temperature. If things don't cool down soon the coral may die. You can see the white patches in the photo that are mainly table coral and normally a dark colour.

A parrot fish at the coral reef (BoazR)

as seen from the underwater observatory

coral reef (js64)

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752. atmoaggie 16:56 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Since EVERYONE can just move to a better neighborhood, home invasions would just stop happening as there would be no bad neighborhoods...perfect! ;-) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

753. PensacolaDoug 17:04 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting McBill: How many times have those things happened in your home? Tell that to the doctor who lost his wife and two daughters to those two maniacs. To answer your question. Never to me but I'd rather have it and not need it than the other way around. Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

754. PcolaDan 17:06 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting muddertracker: Pack or Eagles? Hell, no weather talk today, so I thought I'd throw out some football. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

756. PcolaDan 17:08 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: Since EVERYONE can just move to a better neighborhood, home invasions would just stop happening as there would be no bad neighborhoods...perfect! ;-) I believe it's here. Link Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

757. PensacolaDoug 17:09 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting McBill: What doctor? What maniacs? Is this another hypothetical? Link Not hypothetical. You really shoud be better informed. This was a huge story in all the papers and on all of the networks. Keep wearing your "rose colored glasses." The trial was just recently held. During testominy It was revealed that his daughters and wife were raped tied to the bed and set on fire alive. While the cops were outside wondering if they should rush the place. Horrific. Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

758. Xandra 17:16 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting Cochise111: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/09/monckton-skewers-steketee/#more-31240 A great read for all of the AGW proponents out there. WUWT + Monckton = non science nonsense! “The number of errors Chris Monckton makes is so enormous it would take a thesis to go through every single one of them.” MN professor eviscerates Monckton in must-see video Link Why won't Monckton Join the Scientific "Debate"? Link Member Since: 22 novembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

759. PensacolaDoug 17:18 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting Xandra: WUWT + Monckton = non science nonsense! “The number of errors Chris Monckton makes is so enormous it would take a thesis to go through every single one of them.” MN professor eviscerates Monckton in must-see video Link Why won't Monckton Join the Scientific "Debate"? Link Why won't Gore? Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

760. PensacolaDoug 17:22 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Sa matter MCBill? Cat got your toungue? Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

761. Patrap 17:22 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
GOM IR loop Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

762. Ossqss 17:23 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Here is one example of where those long cut and paste posts come from! This is only one of many prepackaged rebuttal sites the AGW group rely on heavily. Ya think you are giving some folks more credit than they deserve? You betcha ! LOL http://www.skepticalscience.com/Newcomers-Start-Here.html Member Since: 12 juin 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

763. atmoaggie 17:26 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
That bow echo has river parishes written all over it...(the southern piece) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

765. Skyepony (Mod) 17:28 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Cloudsat hit the leading edge of the storm coming across the SE.. click pic to see the pass Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29234

766. Neapolitan 17:29 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting Ossqss: Here is one example of where those long cut and paste posts come from! This is only one of many prepackaged rebuttal sites the AGW group rely on heavily. Ya think you are giving some folks more credit than they deserve? You betcha ! LOL http://www.skepticalscience.com/Newcomers-Start-Here.html The only reason we use such sites is because contrarians continually post the same discredited nonsense from the same discredited people from the same discredited sites, and it's tedious retyping the same basic facts over and over and over. But I'll tell you what; we science believers will promise not to ever use SkepticalScience.com again if science disbelievers promise to never quote anything from WattsUpWithThat.com again. Whattaya say? Deal? Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11138

767. Patrap 17:30 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

768. Patrap 17:31 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Coastal Flood Warning Statement as of 3:33 AM CST on January 09, 2011 ... Coastal Flood Warning in effect from noon today to 6 am CST Monday... The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal Flood Warning... which is in effect from noon today to 6 am CST Monday. The coastal Flood Watch is no longer in effect. * Coastal flooding: tides 2 to 3 feet above normal are anticipated along open coastal areas of southeast Louisiana... and southern Mississippi Sunday afternoon and evening. Except that tides will be 3 to 5 feet above normal near the St Bernard... Orleans Parish border adjacent to Lake Borgne. * Timing: main threat will be during periods of high tide this afternoon and evening. Conditions should ease by Monday morning. * Impacts: the high tide levels may produce flooding in low lying areas outside of hurricane protection levees in southeast Louisiana and in low lying areas along the Mississippi coast and Lake Pontchartrain. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Wind Advisory Statement as of 3:32 AM CST on January 09, 2011 ... Wind Advisory now in effect from noon today to midnight CST tonight... The Wind Advisory is now in effect from noon today to midnight CST tonight. East winds are expected to increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts to near 40 mph this afternoon and evening across coastal sections of southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. This will occur as an area of low pressure moves eastward near the southeast Louisiana coast. Winds will gradually diminish during the late evening hours today and early Monday morning. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds 26 to 39 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

769. Walshy 17:35 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
North Carolina ... Haywood County... 7 E Waterville 30.0 1157 am 1/09 since thurs 3 N Maggie Valley 16.0 1155 am 1/09 ... Madison County... 3 NNE Faust 30.0 1157 am 1/09 Now here comes Monday's storm followed by upslope and another storm on the weekend. Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 618

770. PensacolaDoug 17:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting McBill: That was over three years ago and I guess I just don't have the same fascination with murder and torture that others have. Was that in your neighborhood? It wasn't clear from reading the Times article whether or not Dr. Petit was armed and, if he wasn't, if that would have made any difference. Also, what role did the Connecticut gun laws play in the incident? Enjoy your day. We're through here. Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

771. Patrap 17:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Storm Nexrad Mixed Composite Radar Map Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

772. IKE 17:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

773. nash28 17:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Winter storm warnings up for areas west of the Charleston area. Still under watch conditions here. We'll see if that changes as the day progresses. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

774. Skyepony (Mod) 17:37 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
It's been more than 24hrs since there was some mass bird or fish kill in the NH, starting from New Year's eve with a fish kill in Haiti. The last was birds in Italy. Hope that is over. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29234

775. PcolaDan 17:37 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: That bow echo has river parishes written all over it...(the southern piece) Looks real similar to what came through here last week. A real nasty half hour or so. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

776. ShenValleyFlyFish 17:38 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting IKE: (CNN) -- Two people -- an officer and a civilian -- were fatally shot Sunday morning after a fight at a Baltimore club, police said. Police responded to a report of a disturbance at the Select Lounge in downtown Baltimore about 1:15 a.m., said Anthony Guglielmi, spokesman for the Baltimore Police Department. A fight spilled out of the club and into the parking lot, police said. The deceased officer was an 11-year veteran who was in his early 30s, Guglielmi said. The civilian who was killed was in his early 20s, according to police. Their names were not released pending notification of family members. Four others -- including another officer -- were injured from gunshot wounds but are expected to survive, Guglielmi said. This incident is an example of why I don't buy the "lets just all bring a gun view." It is beginning to appear that no civilians discharged weapons, there was a miss-identification of a police officer, and it was all "friendly fire" or cross fire stray bullets. I started sitting in a different spot and a bartender quit work after a hold up at the Irish Pub where I hung out in NYC. There were no patrons present and bartender told me it wasn't the first time he had been held up (different bar) but said what made him quit was when all the regulars came in and started shooting off their mouths about what they wold have done and he realized 1/2 the bar was off duty cops. Said he'd come to this fair country to get away from drunk Irishmen with guns. Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

777. Patrap 17:39 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
NEXRAD Radar Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

778. atmoaggie 17:44 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting Patrap: NEXRAD Radar Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Hmmm, I may have been off with the river parishes...could be a NOLA and SE issue. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

779. Patrap 17:47 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Lotsa energy and straight line winds I bet in this Line also atmo.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

780. BahaHurican 17:48 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Afternoon all. Another wonderfully "just right" Sunday afternoon is in progress here in Nassau, Bahamas. I do surely hope it continues this way for the rest of the winter.... lol Haven't looked at the progress of the latest winter storm yet. What's the prognosis? Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17587

781. tramp96 17:53 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting IKE: *offers a peace pipe* Puff puff Member Since: 15 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

782. atmoaggie 17:56 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Buoy 42035 recording 50 mph gusts (okay, not showing 50 in the graphic...though I saw better than 50 somewhere...) Seems that the rainfall sensor is non-functioning. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

783. Patrap 17:58 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

784. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:03 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

785. Xandra 18:06 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Why won't Gore? ??? Member Since: 22 novembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

786. calusakat 18:09 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: 726. calusakat 11:08 AM EST on January 09, 2011 At the very least, the lack of security was totally disgraceful. It empowers the 'Jared the Moron' types of the world to feel 'in control'. So t it has come too this: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." except they be required to be armed or have a security detail present. Damn, I knew hanging out with Quakers, Mennonites, Amish, Brethren and pacifists was dangerous, just not how dangerous. Guess only answer is to get a Glock with a 30 round clip. Think Monday night storm is going to trend north of me but my brother disagrees. Wonder how he's going to take it when I tell him he's got to add security detail to the church budget. I thought getting away from this was why my 7x Great-Grandfather left Switzerland. Guess he should have gone to Pakistan. Taking your absurd observation to its absurd conclusion then the President of the United States should not have a need for a security detail either. There are bad guys out there. I suppose that you don't lock your doors at night or when you leave on vacation. Same must go for your car when you park it in a very crowded mall parking lot either. Are you one of those folks who have a Facebook account with every last detail of your life on it? Get used to this one fact. The world out there wants to kill you. Doubt me? Grab a row boat over on the Atlantic coast and start rowing due east way out of sight of land and until you are exhausted and see how long it is before you realize that going out too far will result in your being lost and likely dying out there. Protecting the lives of our elected officials is an obligation not a courtesy. Can someone please send some rain to South Florida. Member Since: 10 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716

787. EYEStoSEA 18:11 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Keeper, could you please post that Plymouth Rarar with the black background....the best IMO Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490

789. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:18 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

790. Xandra 18:18 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
More about Al Gore’s movie Link Member Since: 22 novembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 754

791. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:20 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting EYEStoSEA: Keeper, could you please post that Plymouth Rarar with the black background....the best IMO its only good with severe weather its not showing much other than a bow offshore south LA Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

792. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:22 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

793. nash28 18:22 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Things appear to be getting nasty over the Dallas area from reports from friends. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

794. EYEStoSEA 18:22 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: its only good with severe weather its not showing much other than a bow offshore south LA Oh, ok....thanks anyway. Ice accummulating fast here in Ms...power still ok, but to get worse this afternoon Member Since: 16 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1490

795. reedzone 18:30 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Watch out for some severe weather tomorrow in parts of Florida, this squall line in the Gulf means business.. Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

796. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:31 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

797. RipplinH2O 18:33 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Gun control: I am in control of my gun. I am liscensed to carry my gun concealed in my state and 27 other states. If you enter my property uninvited, real estate or automobile, you have the rest of your life to prove to me your intent... Member Since: 30 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491

798. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:35 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

799. Skyepony (Mod) 18:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
WU TX webcams. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29234

800. weatherbro 18:36 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
could the dead birds and fish be related to the magnetic shift? Member Since: 26 mai 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1154

801. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 18:43 GMT le 09 janvier 2011
Quoting weatherbro: could the dead birds and fish be related to the magnetic shift? it was only fireworks nothing to see here move along lol Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

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