Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Another flooding mega-disaster: Sri Lanka recovers from extreme flooding
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:14 GMT le 19 janvier 2011 +3
At least 43 are dead and thousands still in refugee camps due to extreme flooding in eastern Sri Lanka caused by record monsoon rains. According to the United Nations, the rains in recent weeks in Sri Lanka have been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Sri Lanka's previous most devastating flooding disaster was the 2004 tsunami, but as The Economist commented, "in terms of the numbers of people displaced and farmland inundated, the floods have been even more devastating than the tsunami of December 2004." Damage estimates start at $500 million, and much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged by the disaster. Also of concern is the large number of land mines from the recent Sri Lanka civil war that may have been unearthed by the floods. Water is also a major concern in the flood-hit area, as fighting between government forces and Tamil Tigers rebels from mid-2007 to May 2009 damaged or destroyed almost all of the water facilities.


Figure 1. A family affected by the 2011 Sri Lanka floods braves the flood waters. Image credit: United Nations.

Sri Lanka is now the fifth nation in the past six month to suffer a flooding disaster unprecedented in its history. As I reported in a previous post, the other four mega-impact floods--the July 2010 Pakistan floods, the December - January Queensland Australia floods, the November 2010 Colombia floods, and the January 2011 Rio de Janeiro floods--were all accompanied by an atmosphere laden with moisture, due, in part, due to sea surface temperatures over nearby ocean areas that were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. However, that was not the case for the Sri Lanka floods. Ocean temperatures during December 2010 were 0.2°C below average in the 5x5 degree square of ocean adjoining the island (5N - 10N, 80E - 85E). The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated precipitation over Sri Lanka for January 3 - 9. Up to 18 inches (525 mm) fell over eastern Sri Lanka. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Flood
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51. Xyrus2000 15:12 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting RitaEvac:
Disasters taking place, throwing money to everything, gas prices soaring, debt soaring, when your stupid economy tanks into the ground and the crash of 2012 takes hold, global warming will be the least of your worries


DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
52. Patrap 15:13 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
.....,,walking more.

Always a Healthy choice.

Plus the Ladies Love my Dog.

So thats a BONUS incentive
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
53. WaterWitch11 15:13 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
the earth is pretty old. so all the past climate changes would be blamed on what, the wrath of god?
Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
54. Inyo 15:14 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
People, global warming is important stuff but please don't forget the other reason floods have been increasing lately: degradation of watersheds.

We have no hope against more frequent storm events caused by global warming, if we don't get our watersheds in better condition.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765
55. Patrap 15:16 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
56. atmoaggie 15:16 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
*yawn*

I hope the Sri Lankans can get enough food, though I know they aren't very wealthy.
And, I hope this is just a WAG, as it seems, and it isn't nearly as bad as it could be.
"much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged "
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
57. SQUAWK 15:16 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Ike, you have a really good grip on reality. I think some of the others do not.

Especially the one who is coughing up phlegm all the time.
Member Since: 9 décembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497
58. atmoaggie 15:17 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Inyo:
People, global warming is important stuff but please don't forget the other reason floods have been increasing lately: degradation of watersheds.

We have no hope against more frequent storm events caused by global warming, if we don't get our watersheds in better condition.
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
60. Neapolitan 15:19 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting IKE:


And what are you doing about GW to curb it?

I've responded to this same question about a million times here, sometimes giving all the boring details. I do a lot to cut my carbon footprint at home, at work, at play, wherever and whenever. Like anyone else--and I do mean anyone--I can probably do better, and I strive to do so.

But as I've also stated before, it's not simply enough for each of us who care to do our own part; there is a huge campaign, well-funded by corporate (mostly fossil fuel) interests to spread anti-science misinformation and disinformation, and they've been sadly successful judging by some of the writings one sees here and elsewhere. Because of that, I've made it a personal goal of mine to combat that campaign wherever, whenever, and however I can. Yes, I know I'm tilting at ginormous oil- and coal-powered windmills--but I can't just sit idly by while my home is trashed by those who place profit and politics ahead of people. I just can't. I doubt that I've convinced anyone; I'm aware I'm just one small man shoveling, er, egesta against the contrarian tide. But so be it.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142
61. calusakat 15:19 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You make this sound like a question of faith, which it isn't. It is a question of science.

Th closest comparison would be Intelligent Design. You have copious amounts of research and science on one side, and you have faith on the other.

The same stunts are being pulled regardless. And again, it's not the first time this has happened in regards to climatological findings (see what happened with the ozone hole research).


Sorry to differ with you.

The research and science (AGW) to which you refer is based on falsified and altered data that has been molded to fit a preconceived view or bias.

Remember, all they have to do is provide a disclaimer and all that falsified data is rendered 'true and accurate', as if by magic.

The blind faith is the Lords of AGW way of doing things.


Member Since: 10 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
62. Skyepony (Mod) 15:20 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting IKE:
For the record, I haven't avoided my opinion on GW. I believe it exists. Is it reversable? Maybe. Could I be wrong? Yes. Do I feel like sitting here all day everyday trying to convince the non-believers? No. Maybe they're right.

Everyone has a right to an opinion. What I would like to know is...of the believers...what are you doing to curb GW?


Living like a total food snob..Growing all the veggies & most the fruit the family eats. Getting into chickens & fish next. So nice not eating food sprayed with pesticides or genetically modified to live through several sprayings of round up..for about free. If your eating the processed American diet your getting some round up. 80% of corn & many other veggies are now "round up ready"..Bon Apitiete!

Driving vehicles with the best mpg we could afford. One payed for itself in less than 3 years from gas savings compared to the car it replaced..

Sealed up the house, (it's amazing how much $80 in caulk can save you), replaced the old leaky ducts, kept investing my savings into new energy efficient appliances. Now I have new appliances that have already payed for themselves (including AC unit) & a bunch of extra money I could have gave to the oil, food & energy giants.. I'm thinking solar next.

If I didn't live green, I'd need a job, be eating crap for food & have a bunch of old appliances.
Ya'll bent on living business as usual~ it is going to rob your wallet.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
63. Patrap 15:22 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Skyepony walks the talk..and with pride.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
64. Xyrus2000 15:22 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Global Warming seems nothing more than political propaganda. It's an absolute joke. Natural disasters have been occurring on this planet long before any of us were here. Just like temperature trends. Post #4 sums it up rather nicely.


You mean like how Obama is a socialist fascist non-citizen?

Strange how it seems that ONLY climate science is political. What about medical research? Energy research? What about agricultural science? Why aren't they political? They should be, even more so than climate science considering the money going to medical research groups and companies dwarfs climate science by an order of magnitude.

And why, exactly, would anyone use climate science for political gain? Why would anyone waste the time and effort to try and manipulate world government through climate science when there are far easier and more direct ways to do so?

You seem to be confused. Science is performed in a rigorous peer-reviewed environment by experts in their respective fields. That being said, any idiot can participate in politics.

Which, of course, is part of the problem.

Sorry, but conspiracy theories just make you sound like truthers and birthers. They bring nothing of use to the conversation, and honestly only make you look like fool who can't bring to bear any sort of a cogent logical scientific argument.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
65. Xyrus2000 15:24 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting WaterWitch11:
the earth is pretty old. so all the past climate changes would be blamed on what, the wrath of god?


Google paleoclimatology.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
67. txag91met 15:28 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
It is warming from CO2...no arguing that.

But next year should cool off by .4C compared to last year. Even if the La Nina weakens.
Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 723
68. Xyrus2000 15:32 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting calusakat:


Sorry to differ with you.

The research and science (AGW) to which you refer is based on falsified and altered data that has been molded to fit a preconceived view or bias.

Remember, all they have to do is provide a disclaimer and all that falsified data is rendered 'true and accurate', as if by magic.

The blind faith is the Lords of AGW way of doing things.




And when you can't come up with a logical argument, you fall back on conspiracy, character assisination, ad hominem, and other fallacies.

You have yet to provide a single source of verifiable proof that there is a global world wide conspiracy going on.

But what do climatologist gain by trying to form a world wide conspiracy of this magnitude? Why climate science, when other branches of science are more well funded and would be easier to fool the general populace?

Even if I subscribed to conspiracy theories (which I don't), using climate science as a tool for world domination or whatever just doesn't make logical sense. There are more convenient routes to money and power.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
70. MagneticCrotchet 15:34 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting WaterWitch11:
the earth is pretty old. so all the past climate changes would be blamed on what, the wrath of god?


No, the past societies that destroyed themselves, without a trace.
Member Since: 18 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
72. Neapolitan 15:36 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting txag91met:
It is warming from CO2...no arguing that.

But next year should cool off by .4C compared to last year. Even if the La Nina weakens.

2011 will likely be cooler overall than 2010, which was a record warm year. If anyone wishes to call that a sign of global cooling, they're free to do so--though they'll have to do so by ignoring the simple fact that climate is about long-term trends, not year-to-year changes. And those long-term trends point toward a warming planet.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142
73. IKE 15:38 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
For those that answered my question...thanks for answering.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
74. txag91met 15:38 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:

2011 will likely be cooler overall than 2010, which was a record warm year. If anyone wishes to call that a sign of global cooling, they're free to do so--though they'll have to do so by ignoring the simple fact that climate is about long-term trends, not year-to-year changes. And those long-term trends point toward a warming planet.
I don't call it a sign of Global Cooling.
Member Since: 30 janvier 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 723
75. calusakat 15:39 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


And when you can't come up with a logical argument, you fall back on conspiracy, character assisination, ad hominem, and other fallacies.

You have yet to provide a single source of verifiable proof that there is a global world wide conspiracy going on.

But what do climatologist gain by trying to form a world wide conspiracy of this magnitude? Why climate science, when other branches of science are more well funded and would be easier to fool the general populace?

Even if I subscribed to conspiracy theories (which I don't), using climate science as a tool for world domination or whatever just doesn't make logical sense. There are more convenient routes to money and power.


Who said anything about conspiracies?

In their perverted world, disclaimers make it all better.

In the real world, its called bad science.


Member Since: 10 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
77. Skyepony (Mod) 15:42 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Ike~ You could compost those leaves & use it for fertilizer. I compost everything I can. People pay me cash & home grown fruit for my compost. It's free fertilized dirt for the organic garden too. Compost happens.. you can lay it down in layers~ brown, green, brown, green..etc, let nature do it's thing. 6 months later you've got a bed to grow some organic food. Really easier than bagging leaves for the trash guys & going to the grocery store.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
78. overwash12 15:43 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Science,we can not even predict the weather 1 week in advance,how can you say in 10,20,30 years we will be 1 to 3 degrees warmer. A volcano might erupt tomorrow and block out the sun for months causing a mini ice age,then what agw caused that too!
Member Since: 24 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049
79. Xyrus2000 15:45 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Patrap:


Take Sarah Palin for example.



Precisely. From unknown governor in Alaska to extreme right wing power princess in a handful of years.

People are very easy to manipulate, and you certainly don't need scientists to do it. In fact, they'd get in the way.

A really successful worldwide conspiracy would never make itself publicly open to debate or review. They would act behind the scenes, while putting charismatic individuals in seats of power to slowly bend world policy and perceptions to their will. Over time, they would convince the people to act in their own worst interests to further secure their positions of wealth and power. But you'd only see the pretty person parade, you'd never see the people behind them.
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80. WaterWitch11 15:46 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
for years my husband has used the leaves as mulch. it works great.
Member Since: 11 août 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266
84. FFtrombi 15:53 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
Man how interesting would it be if the earth started a cooling trend in 2011 for 10 years. I guess then we'd spend billions of dollars trying to warm the earth back up to 'stabilize' the climate, like we can control what the earth does anyways.


Thanks for the laughs, you are a funny man!

Everyone does realise the only chance to prove AGW is a hoax is to pour a lot more money into climate research? If funding were to stop today, the science would stop and the current consensus of man-made warming would be the de facto science for decades to come ;)
Member Since: 6 novembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
85. Skyepony (Mod) 15:53 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Skyepony walks the talk..and with pride.


It's better than getting a real job, being a corporate knob & eating crap.. Are some people just afraid of leisure & money or just that brainwashed they can't make anything & must give all their money to corporations?
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
86. Patrap 15:53 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
87. Xyrus2000 15:54 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting overwash12:
Science,we can not even predict the weather 1 week in advance,how can you say in 10,20,30 years we will be 1 to 3 degrees warmer. A volcano might erupt tomorrow and block out the sun for months causing a mini ice age,then what agw caused that too!


You know, even reading an elementary introduction to climate science would answer your questions. Climate does not equal weather, and vice versa.I you were actually motivated to learn, there are dozens of good books on the subject of climatology.

Climatological projections are based on assumptions of what our activities are now and may be in the future. They make it quite clear that the projections do not take into account extreme events such as massive volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
88. Patrap 15:58 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:


It's better than getting a real job, being a corporate knob & eating crap.. Are some people just afraid of leisure & money or just that brainwashed they can't make anything & must give all their money to corporations?


Thats a good point skye.

We buy Local Seafood weekly,,and try to by all our veggies from Local Growers.


Mass Transit serves NOLA well,,and we only Drive the Boy to school one way.

He rides home with a local schoolmate.


Corporations run rampant with Tax Breaks,,outsourcing and PR slants like BP in the GOM.

Alls well if they say so,,but let some rumor of Truth come to light with Known facts,studies and obs,,then its all conspiracy.

Go Fig'ya
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
89. NRAamy 15:59 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
so, we're already off of the earthquake in Pakistan and onto bigger and better disasters? Not even a mention of it in today's header? Do floods outrank earthquakes? is that like rock outranks scissors?
Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
90. Patrap 16:00 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Calamity Knows no Borders,,only mens minds and Maps do.



Earthquake



Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
91. Xyrus2000 16:01 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting jwh250:
US Agencies Still Fiddling Temperature Record, Reports SPPI

NASA and NOAA, which each receive close to half a billion dollars a year in taxpayer funding, have been systematically fiddling the worldwide temperature record for years, making “global warming” look worse than it is, according to a new paper by the Science and Public Policy Institute. The findings are reported by Joe D’Aleo, a leading meteorologist.


SPPI = Sham. Their research is not peer reviewed. Their methods are not open. Their funding sources are not declared. And they have no backing of any respectable climate science organization.

You could always refer to actual published research papers by skeptics instead of posting this psuedo-scientific garbage. Unfortunately, you won't find any REAL skeptic research paper claiming that global warming is a hoax/conspiracy.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016
94. NRAamy 16:03 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
thanks for the video, Pat...
Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
97. overwash12 16:04 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    

Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I can predict that this July will be warmer than this January. In fact, I will predict that July will be warmer than January in every reporting station in the contiguous 48 of the USA. That's part of the climate.

People who don't know much about weather and climate have a tendency to confuse them.

I don't claim to be an expert on weather or climate,but as I said before,its not getting any warmer at my house(by that I mean the thermometer on the tree). Besides every record reported by weather recording stations always state (since records have been kept). which is what since 1880 in most cases. If they said 5,000 years ,then we might have something to worry about!
Member Since: 24 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049
100. Skyepony (Mod) 16:08 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Precisely. From unknown governor in Alaska to extreme right wing power princess in a handful of years.

People are very easy to manipulate, and you certainly don't need scientists to do it. In fact, they'd get in the way.

A really successful worldwide conspiracy would never make itself publicly open to debate or review. They would act behind the scenes, while putting charismatic individuals in seats of power to slowly bend world policy and perceptions to their will. Over time, they would convince the people to act in their own worst interests to further secure their positions of wealth and power. But you'd only see the pretty person parade, you'd never see the people behind them.


Quoting HIPPOCRITT:
I left my refrigerator door open this morning. Just doing my part to stop Global Warming.


hhhhhhmmm
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240
101. jeffs713 16:09 GMT le 19 janvier 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:


Living like a total food snob..Growing all the veggies & most the fruit the family eats. Getting into chickens & fish next. So nice not eating food sprayed with pesticides or genetically modified to live through several sprayings of round up..for about free. If your eating the processed American diet your getting some round up. 80% of corn & many other veggies are now "round up ready"..Bon Apitiete!

Driving vehicles with the best mpg we could afford. One payed for itself in less than 3 years from gas savings compared to the car it replaced..

Sealed up the house, (it's amazing how much $80 in caulk can save you), replaced the old leaky ducts, kept investing my savings into new energy efficient appliances. Now I have new appliances that have already payed for themselves (including AC unit) & a bunch of extra money I could have gave to the oil, food & energy giants.. I'm thinking solar next.

If I didn't live green, I'd need a job, be eating crap for food & have a bunch of old appliances.
Ya'll bent on living business as usual~ it is going to rob your wallet.

Skye - That is how it shoudl be done. My wife and I just bought a new house (well, start of last year), and one of our qualifications is that it is energy-efficient. We paid extra for Tek-shield in the attic, double-paned low-e windows, a very efficient A/C unit, extra insulation, etc. Our highest electric bill this summer (in Houston, TX) was $120, for a two story house. (and yes, we use 100% green energy)

We drive small cars, and all future cars will get 30+ mpg (35 if we can get it), and be hybrids if possible. Growing our own food, while difficult to keep it organic, not only saves us money, but allows us to live even more green (and they keep a lot longer in storage).

So many people focus on fossil fuels to live green... but more people need to think like you and I, and live sustainably. If anyone needs some ideas, I posted some on my blog a while back (its the most recent post on there).
Member Since: 3 août 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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